Islamist influence will grow in Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Minority Rights ◽  
General Election ◽  
Refugee Camps ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pressure Groups ◽  
The Government

Significance The government promised severe action against the perpetrators, many of whom support hard-line Islamist parties and pressure groups. Although the attacks attracted widespread external condemnation, majority-Hindu India, which is keen to strengthen ties with Dhaka, was quick to acknowledge the efforts made by the Bangladeshi authorities to establish control over the situation. Impacts An uptick in attacks on Bangladesh’s Hindus would increase anti-Muslim sentiment among the Indian public. The Taliban takeover in Afghanistan will embolden radical groups active in Rohingya refugee camps as well as many Bangladeshi hardliners. Minority rights will be a source of debate in the lead-up to the next general election, due in 2023.

Immigration will threaten the unity of Denmark's left

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Instability ◽  
General Election ◽  
Social Democrat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Campaign Strategy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Realignment

Subject Denmark's immigration impact. Significance Denmark's opposition Social Democrat party has adopted a hardened stance on immigration, reflected by its support for several populist policies implemented by the government. The party will use its toughening position on immigration as a campaign strategy ahead of Denmark's general election in 2019. Impacts Increased competition over the leadership of the incumbent Venstre party could undermine its chances of retaining power. A Social Democrat government backed by the DPP would mark an unprecedented political realignment. A government involving the DPP would be marked by popular protests and political instability.

Myanmar armed groups eye leverage through 2020 poll

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
National League ◽  
Step Down ◽  
The Government

Subject Situation regarding Myanmar's ethnic armed organisations. Significance The government and military in Myanmar and leaders of ten ethnically based guerrilla groups that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) last week pledged to step up their commitment to the peace process, to transform the NCA into a lasting settlement. Several other armed groups are still in conflict with the state, notwithstanding occasional ceasefires. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will very likely retain control over the civilian part of government following this year’s general election, but ethnic parties will probably make parliamentary gains at its expense. Impacts Suu Kyi is very unlikely to face pressure to step down even if the NLD’s parliamentary majority is heavily reduced. Even with increased seat share in parliament, ethnic parties will struggle to influence policy. China and India will double down on their support for the Myanmar military.

Refugee special economic zones

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 290-303
Author(s):  
Lotta Moberg ◽  
Sebastian Reil
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Refugee Camps ◽  
Special Economic Zones ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Institutional Entrepreneurs ◽  
Host Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Zones

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show how special economic zones (SEZs) can be applied to refugee camps. Zones are powerful tools for investors to act like institutional entrepreneurs, who promote institutional reform by pursuing exemptions from government constraints and taxes or by advocating for reform. Refugee SEZs (R-SEZs) would similarly allow for institutional entrepreneurs to promote broader immigration reform. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply a political economy framework to R-SEZs that explores the factors that make them feasible. A mathematical model is applied to explicitly define the conditions under which the zones could succeed in benefiting refugees, investors and the host economy alike. Findings Under certain conditions, appropriate tax rates can be applied to R-SEZs that make them feasible. Feasibility is determined by being beneficial for the host country while also attracting investors. The zones are feasible if they attract enough foreign investors as opposed to domestic investors. Other factors contributing to zone success are higher wages outside the zone, lower wages inside it, higher cost to the government of non-employed refugees, lower relocation cost for businesses and a higher tax rate outside the zone. Practical implications This policy would aim to provide job opportunities to refugees, profit opportunities to investors and lower net costs for the host government. R-SEZs should be considered by policy makers in countries hosting refugee camps. Just like the old model of SEZs, they can benefit workers while also enhancing the government’s budget. Social implications R-SEZs have the potential to alleviate the refugee crisis the world is facing, which is arguably one of the largest social challenges of our time. Originality/value This paper is the first to outline the political economy conditions for SEZs applied to refugee camps.

United Kingdom's Corbyn unlikely to face coup soon

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Leadership Positions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The centrist, 'Blairite' section of the party has been defeated and largely excluded from leadership positions. Corbyn's past statements and policy stances are widely believed to render him implausible as a potential prime minister, and thus the Labour Party unelectable with him as leader. The likelihood of the governing Conservatives winning the 2020 general election has increased. Impacts Corbyn is likely to back continued UK EU membership in the referendum, helping to protect him from an early party coup. Because of his previous ambivalence, Corbyn's backing for continued EU membership will make it harder for the left to back 'Brexit'. Foreign policy issues will be among the most difficult under Corbyn, both within the party and with the government. Given the government's small majority, Corbyn's win will make parliamentary support for air strikes against Syrian targets harder to secure. Corbyn's win is unlikely to restore Labour's fortunes in Scotland, potentially boosting support for independence.

Malaysian religious politics will intensify

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Politics ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Religious Rhetoric ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Alcoholic Drinks ◽  
The Government

Significance Malaysia’s next general election is due by August 2018 but could come before May. The vice-president of the opposition Islamist party Amanah has accused the government of politicising the flooding, which has seen seven die and 9,000 people evacuated (Hamidi denied this criticism). With the election cycle gaining momentum, religious controversies are likely to play an important role. Impacts The announcement of an election pact between the BN and PAS could signal the general election’s imminence. Heightened religious rhetoric in politics could see business pressure on alcoholic drinks and casino providers in Malaysia. Malaysian Islamist groups will avoid Islamic State (IS) connections, instead being influenced by local politics. The Penang floods’ political fallout could weaken the opposition Pakatan Harapan coalition which runs the state.

Mozambique gas dividend may offer some fiscal relief

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Media ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
General Election ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Media Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Local Opposition

Subject Mozambique economic update. Significance The cabinet recently announced that three new exploration contracts would be signed in September for gas blocks. This is welcome news for President Filipe Nyusi's administration after terrorist attacks in the northern Cabo Delgado province delayed several final investment decisions, while the government's long-running fiscal and debt troubles continue. Impacts FRELIMO may triumph in the forthcoming local polls but will struggle to retain power in the 2019 general election. A new media law, which includes vastly increased accreditation fees for journalists, will raise fears of a growing clampdown on dissent. The government and gas companies will struggle to complete projects in Nampula and Zambezia provinces amid sizable local opposition. Youth resentment of the authorities could worsen.

India’s Naxalite threat is much reduced

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Religious Violence ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Poll ◽  
The Government

Subject Declining threat of India's Maoists. Significance Some 62 Naxalites -- Maoist rebels -- recently surrendered to security forces in Chhattisgarh, where around 125,000 police and paramilitary troops were deployed to safeguard this week’s first phase of the state elections, which the Naxalites want boycotted. Home Minister Rajnath Singh last month said Naxalites would be eliminated in India within 1-3 years. Impacts The government is unlikely to prioritise land reform in the lead-up to the 2019 general election. Some states are likely to see outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim religious violence ahead of the national poll. Singh will likely remain home minister if Prime Minister Narendra Modi wins a second term.

UK ‘levelling-up’ agenda will likely disappoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
The South ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Corporation Tax ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Successful Vaccine ◽  
The Government

Significance ‘Levelling up’ has always been an objective of UK governments, but the political pressure on this government is huge as the Conservatives looks to hold onto many of the ‘left-behind’ constituencies they won in the 2019 general election. Impacts Leveraging corporation tax to fund left behind regions may discourage investment in high-value services in London and the south-east. Concerns over the constitutional future of Scotland will further discourage the government from considering regional devolution. The opening of society in the coming months amid a successful vaccine rollout could give an important boost to Johnson’s popular support.

Thai premier’s political strategy will be flexible

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Local Production ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Local Company ◽  
Roll Out

Significance The government parliamentary bloc is led by the Phalang Pracharat Party, formed to support Prayut’s transition from junta leader to civilian premier. While dampening speculation about an early general election, Prayut apologised for the brief suspension of the country’s recently commenced COVID-19 vaccine roll-out, which was due mainly to slow local production of jabs. Impacts Factionalism within Phalang Pracharat will intensify, exacerbating government instability. Prayut will say little about the crisis in Myanmar, to avoid comparisons between the recent coup there and his own seizure of power in 2014. Controversy over the local company making AstraZeneca shots could complicate Thai-UK relations.

III. Tories, Catholics, and the General Election of 1859

1970 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Theodore Hoppen
Keyword(s):  
Roman Catholic ◽  
General Election ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
Suspended Animation ◽  
Pressure Groups ◽  
Delicate Balance ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Government

The fine and delicate balance of political forces and interests in midnineteenth century Britain is nowhere better demonstrated than in the activities of certain social and religious pressure groups during the general election campaign of 1859. The two main parties were certainly conscious of their past and of the traditions imposed upon them by those who had gone before; equally certainly the differences between them were more the outcome of these traditions than of real contemporary disagreements as to policy or outlook. The Tory administration led by Lord Derby, which had come to power in February 1858, was in a minority in the House of Commons. Its survival depended on an ability to attract dissident Whigs and men of independent views. Derby, never the most optimistic of men, had realized as early as April 1857 that his party, ‘if not an actual corpse’, was at most ‘in a state of suspended animation’.1 By the beginning of 1859 it had become evident to a number of Tory leaders, and particularly to Disraeli, that if the government were to survive, it would be necessary to obtain help from quarters hitherto untapped by the party. A peculiar set of circumstances led Disraeli to look to sections of the Roman Catholic community for such support. Although Catholicism was a growing force in England, the centre of its political operations lay of course in Ireland, which then returned 105 members to Westminster.

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