Pressure on Lebanon’s central bank governor will mount

10.1108/oxan-db259868 ◽

2021 ◽

Keyword(s):

Central Bank ◽

Trade Barriers ◽

Content Type ◽

Military Commander ◽

Central Bank Governor ◽

Business Ties

Significance Unifying the budget would in effect guarantee funding to eastern Libya for the year -- a prospect unpalatable to western Libyans who suffered from eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s assault on Tripoli in 2019-20. However, the dialogue is also essential to unify the country and begin rebuilding. Impacts Turkey is banking on the incoming government to enhance business ties. If a new central bank governor is more friendly to Egypt, or Cyrenaica, then Turkey could lose privileges and find new trade barriers. President Mohamed Mnefi will aim to grow his own constituency in Cyrenaica, opposing Haftar and Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh.

Party fractures will hinder Mozambique peace talks

10.1108/oxan-db213564 ◽

2016 ◽

Keyword(s):

Central Bank ◽

Humanitarian Aid ◽

External Audit ◽

Content Type ◽

Local Resources ◽

Legislative Changes ◽

Significance Talks stalled on August 22 when both sides rejected the mediators' peace proposal. Since then, government forces have overrun a RENAMO base in the central Morrumbala district. Impacts Drought in the three southern provinces could render 1.8 million people dependent on humanitarian aid. An influx of refugees into Zimbabwe will pressure local resources, exacerbating the already dire conditions there. The appointment of a former IMF official as central bank governor may help to smooth relations with multilateral creditors. Maputo will resist calls for an external audit of its 'secret' loans since this may reveal damaging details of the military's finances. Devolution of greater powers to provinces would involve complex legislative changes, which many FRELIMO lawmakers would oppose.

IMF unlikely to resolve Zambia's debt conundrum

10.1108/oxan-db257855 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

Private Sector ◽

Central Bank ◽

Global Markets ◽

Debt Restructuring ◽

Debt Sustainability ◽

Content Type ◽

Common Framework ◽

Drying Up ◽

To Come ◽

Significance While the G20's new Common Framework for Debt Treatments provides a new mechanism for debt restructuring, it also requires Zambia to convince the IMF that it has disclosed all of its obligations and has a path to debt sustainability -- something President Edgar Lungu and the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) are unwilling to do before next year’s elections. Impacts Zambia’s inability to borrow on global markets will hasten the kwacha's depreciation, which has dropped sharply against the dollar in 2020. With forex drying up, the new Lungu-aligned central bank governor is likely to come under more pressure to print kwachas before the polls. A protracted legal dispute with bondholders could make Zambia a poster child for Western campaigners demanding private-sector debt relief.

Iran’s new central bank governor faces a forex crisis

10.1108/oxan-es264599 ◽

2021 ◽

Keyword(s):

Central Bank ◽

Content Type ◽

Headline IRAN: New central bank governor faces a forex crisis

Politics will undermine Algerian economic policy

10.1108/oxan-db211554 ◽

2016 ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Policy ◽

Central Bank ◽

The Political ◽

Economic Policies ◽

Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽

Content Type ◽

Political Struggles ◽

International Borrowing ◽

The Government ◽

Subject The effect of the sacking of the central bank governor. Significance The Algerian cabinet decided on May 31 to replace the long-serving governor of the central bank, Mohammed Laksaci, with Mohammed Loukal, the CEO of the government-owned Exterior Bank of Algeria. The cabinet did not explain the decision, which was issued in the name of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, but the governor had come under criticism from political figures because of the sharp depreciation of the Algerian dinar, and the erosion of foreign exchange reserves. Impacts Loukal will come under pressure to ease import controls, while defending the dinar. Given weak external accounts, further depreciation of the dinar on the black market is likely, along with further erosion of reserves. The government will soon need to resort to international borrowing, which will bring fresh scrutiny of its economic policies. The central bank governor sacking is most likely related to the political struggles within the establishment on who will succeed Bouteflika.

Philippines' Duterte could reshape courts and banks

10.1108/oxan-db219741 ◽

2017 ◽

Keyword(s):

Political Economy ◽

Central Bank ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Supreme Court ◽

Legal System ◽

The Philippines ◽

Content Type ◽

The Supreme Court ◽

Legal Challenges ◽

Subject Bank and judiciary appointments in the Philippines. Significance This year, President Rodrigo Duterte has the chance to shape the future of the Philippine economy and legal system through his power of appointments, with implications stretching well beyond the conclusion of his single presidential term in 2022. Who the president selects as the central bank's next governor will affect perceptions of the Philippines' political economy and market risk. Duterte's appointments to the Supreme Court will influence the outlook for the Philippines' judiciary and legal system. Impacts A politically motivated central bank governor appointment would put pressure on the Philippines peso and interest rates. The Supreme Court is likely to become more pro-Duterte, even though his two latest appointees will have short tenures. This is likely to diminish the success of legal challenges against the drug crackdown, insulating Duterte's team politically.

Turkey's new central bank governor may loosen policy

10.1108/oxan-db210708 ◽

2016 ◽

Keyword(s):

Central Bank ◽

Financial Markets ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Commercial Banks ◽

Prime Minister ◽

Economic Conditions ◽

Content Type ◽

Lending Rate ◽

Inflation Targets ◽

Significance Cetinkaya is an apparent compromise between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. The MPC cut the overnight lending rate by 50 basis points to 10%, leaving other rates unchanged. Financial markets welcomed the decision in the hope that Cetinkaya would avoid more radical rate cuts that could make the lira plummet and further endanger inflation targets. Impacts Policy rate cuts will have little impact on growth given other risks and factors, particularly external financial and economic conditions. No serious effort will be made to reduce inflation to 5%, until and unless this becomes a government priority. Given better dialogue between government and TCMB, blame for high interest rates may fall increasingly on commercial banks.

China will slowly move to target risks instead of GDP

10.1108/oxan-db222263 ◽

2017 ◽

Keyword(s):

Central Bank ◽

Financial Risks ◽

Xi Jinping ◽

Domestic Activity ◽

Content Type ◽

Producer Prices ◽

Central Bank Governor ◽

China’S Economy

Significance China's economy grew by 6.9% year-on-year in the April-June quarter of 2017, in line with the 6.5-7.0% target. Marked growth in exports drove GDP expansion and combined with higher producer prices and profitability to encourage domestic activity. At the Financial Work Conference on July 14-15, President Xi Jinping committed to tackling the financial risks. Impacts Above-target growth creates scope for more measures to reduce financial risks. Higher profitability, helped by rising factory-gate prices, should help to reduce the reliance on debt. China's central bank governor, an outspoken reformer, is expected to announce his retirement soon; his successor's role will be crucial.

Lebanon’s possible new government would still struggle

10.1108/oxan-db263421 ◽

2021 ◽

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Central Bank ◽

Economic Crisis ◽

Content Type ◽

Fuel Subsidies ◽

Economic Collapse ◽

Central Bank Governor ◽

The Eu

Significance This comes as the worsening economic crisis today caused Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh to end fuel subsidies, abolishing a preferential exchange rate for imports. The EU is also threatening recalcitrant leaders with sanctions. Impacts It remains possible that Aoun and his allies in Shia movement Hezbollah may instead opt to retain the caretaker government of Hassan Diab. The reforms required for large structural loans will not happen with current elites in charge, as they would endanger patronage networks. Spontaneous riots and violence are increasingly likely as the economic collapse continues.

Seoul's rate hike and stimulus strike a balancing act

10.1108/oxan-db263876 ◽

2021 ◽

Keyword(s):

Central Bank ◽

Public Debt ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Content Type ◽

The Government ◽

Central Bank Governor ◽

At Home

Significance The central bank governor has signalled further tightening ahead. The economy is on track this year to exceed the 2019 level. The government has drafted a record budget that will lift public debt above 50% of GDP, to bolster the recovery and tackle inequality. Impacts The budget will pass with at most minor cuts. GDP growth this year may hit 4%, a ten-year high. As ever, strong exports will remain the chief driver of growth. A further rate hike is likely by March. Bottlenecks due to COVID-19 overseas pose a greater risk than outbreaks and countermeasures at home.