Former Ivory Coast first lady will assert influence

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Headline IVORY COAST: Former first lady will assert influence

Significance Instead he aims to create a new party. The FPI has since denied reports of mass defections by the party grassroots to Gbagbo. This comes in the context of broader public reconciliation efforts by President Alassane Ouattara, who seeks political stability in the aftermath of a highly controversial October 2020 third-term election victory. Impacts Ouattara is unlikely to grant general amnesty to all political actors in order to keep some of them outside the country. Gbagbo will likely win over most, though not all, of his former supporters within the FPI. Struggles within Gbagbo’s former party and other opposition formations will weaken the opposition in the short term. Gbagbo will consolidate his position as the main opposition leader, threatening the country’s stability in the lead-up to the 2025 election.


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Headline IVORY COAST: Symbolic meeting will raise vain hopes


Significance While the overall number of incidents is fewer than a dozen since the rise of the region's jihadist insurgencies in the early 2010s, the trend lends credence to growing warnings about the jihadist threat to coastal West African countries. Concern has focused on Ivory Coast and Benin, but there is also nervousness about Ghana, Togo and even Senegal. Impacts Western governments will boost security assistance to coastal states. Intelligence sharing and joint operations will not forestall cross-border hit-and-run attacks. Most regional states will resort to security-focused responses whose abuses drive jihadist recruitment.


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Headline IVORY COAST: Bakayoko's death prompts new power shift


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Headline IVORY COAST: Gbagbo’s return will shake stability


Significance His nomination to run for yet another term met large protests in major towns including N'Djamena, where fighting broke out with security forces leading to arrests. In the last three years, Chad’s security and humanitarian situations have deteriorated as Deby battles escalating jihadist violence in the Sahel and the Lake Chad region, growing discontent from diverse interest groups and pressing humanitarian needs across the country. Impacts Chad and other G5 Sahel countries will seek an extension to the G20’s debt moratorium to help improve their precarious fiscal situation. The G5 Sahel will pursue expansion, potentially to include Ivory Coast and Senegal, in a bid to boost troop strength. Aid agencies will intensify their appeal for funds to help over 12 million people in need before the onset of the rainy period in June.


Subject West Africa ports development. Significance Economic growth and rising trade volumes with Asian countries are straining West Africa's commercial port capacities. Various port infrastructure projects are underway as states compete to become shipping gateways for the region. Ever larger container ships are also forcing states to offer deeper water berth ports. Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria are leading the race. Impacts Low oil prices should not affect port expansion as the costs are borne by competing private sector operators. The question of whether the operator-driven port model delivers equivalent benefits to individual economies will grow as profits rise. European private sector port operators continue to dominate, but competition from Asian companies such as DP World is growing.


Subject Prospects for Africa in the fourth quarter. Significance External headwinds facing sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies are intensifying. Uncertainty over China's growth path adds to the existing strain from lower commodity prices. The aggregate growth average is down, as the two largest economies (Nigeria and South Africa) post disappointing outlooks. Elections are due in Ivory Coast, Guinea and Burkina Faso, where leaders wrestle with post-war or post-coup era settlements. Meanwhile, the delayed Nigerian cabinet will be an important milestone for gauging confidence in the new government.


Subject Outlook for infrastructure in Ivory Coast Significance Minister for Petroleum and Energy Adama Toungara last month stated that Ivory Coast needs to invest 20 billion dollars in power infrastructure to 2030 to meet domestic demand and become a regional energy hub. The projection follows pledges from President Alassane Ouattara to accelerate infrastructure investment if he secures a second term in the October presidential elections. Impacts The Special Investigation and Examination Cell's failure to bring any 2010-11 atrocities to court will hurt trust in the judicial system. Opposition hardliners supporting former President Laurent Gbagbo could boycott the poll, risking some electoral violence. However, moderate mainstream opposition represents a larger constituency and is unlikely to opt for violence. Ouattara will avoid pushing reforms that affect the commercial interests of senior military figures, deferring reforms to the gold sector.


Significance The former aims to lay the foundation for future stability by removing a contentious nationality clause. As the trials of former regime figures get underway, however, the polls risk deepening political fault lines. Impacts If violence resurfaces, it could push Fitch to reconsider its recent decision to rate Ivory Coast at B+ with a stable outlook. The legislative poll's relatively low global profile will reduce oversight by international bodies. Electoral tensions will be unevenly distributed; localised violence is most likely in the cocoa-producing west. Public gatherings ahead of the electoral contests could prove enticing targets for the region's Islamist militants. However, substantial US and French anti-terror assistance will reduce the likelihood of another Grand Bassam-style attack.


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