ФОРСАЙТ ПІДВИЩЕННЯ ЕНЕРГОЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ БУДІВЕЛЬ НА БАЗІ ЕНЕРГОХАБА УНІВЕРСИТЕТУ

The article reveals the essence of the key motivation drivers to save energy and increase the energy efficiency in higher education institutions. In particular, a low level of interest of higher education institutions in the implementation of strategies to reduce energy consumption has been observed. The findings suggest that the lack of interest in energy saving is primarily affected by budget legislation since the energy cost calculation was based on the consumption norms for a particular budgetary institution and the current (planned) electricity and heat tariffs. Recently, it has been decided that from now on universities will not obtain budget funding to cover utility costs; the amount of subsidies from the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine for the implementation of the government objectives will comprise regulatory costs for public service provision according to the student contingent. Standard property maintenance costs will not be covered by the Ministry anymore which will impose the burden of paying the utility bills upon the University’s gross income. Hence, there is a need to take efforts to enhance energy efficiency and energy saving in higher education institutions which was implemented using a foresight methodology. Within the scope of this study, the foresight project to improve the energy efficiency of buildings in the frameworks of the University energy hub is based on the following calculations: thermal energy consumption for heating public buildings, estimated hourly heating load to ensure heating in the building, verifying the feasibility of heating standby regulation, measuring energy savings through the creation of an automated heat supply station, as well as annual savings in monetary terms. In order to save resources and boost energy efficiency based on the University energy hub using an automated heat supply station, the study offers a mathematical toolkit to justify the choice of minimum and maximum values of optimal microclimate parameters; reduce infiltration, increase the efficiency of indoor air distribution; optimal modes of local air conditioning, preheating and cooling; utilizing of "waste" and natural heat and cold; "combining" microclimate systems with other systems; improving automation devices in technical systems. It is argued that increasing the energy efficiency of heating systems in University buildings on the basis of its own energy hub will contribute to gaining significant savings in thermal energy for heating and significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions into the environment. In addition, the study reveals that the cost of thermal energy for heating depends upon a building design, modernization quality, reconstruction and insulation, applied building materials, spatial planning solutions, the presence or absence of control and automated systems, maintenance systems and attitude of owner’s attitude to innovations. The conclusions summarize that the cost of thermal energy can vary significantly in buildings of the same type.

МАТЕМАТИЧНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ПІДВИЩЕННЯ ЕНЕРГОЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ УНІВЕРСИТЕТУ В СИСТЕМІ ЕНЕРГОХАБА ЗНАНЬ

This study attempts to address the issues of enhancing energy efficiency using mathematical modeling methods. The research findings assert that energy saving is a new challenging task of the 21st century, since thermal and electric power consumption is essential to human life and building a favourable living environment. It is observed that boosting the competitiveness, financial stability, energy and environmental security of Ukraine’s economy, as well as improving the living standards and the life quality seem hardly possible without realizing the energy saving potential and increasing energy efficiency through modernization, technological advancements and the transition towards rational and environmentally responsible utilization of energy resources. It is argued that by resolving the above objectives, Ukraine might strengthen its positions among developed economies. The following methods were used to carry out mathematical modeling to enhance the university energy efficiency in the frameworks of the energy knowledge hub: neural network technologies, mean absolute and relative error, mean absolute deviation; statistical comparison of the forecast accuracy based on the mean absolute error, as well as time series forecasting. A model to boost the University energy efficiency has been developed within the knowledge energy hub by implementing neural network patterns based on the experimental data from the Kyiv National University of Technologies and Design for the heating period 2020–2021. In particular, to optimize the operating modes of automatic power supply control for University Building 4, mathematical models with a complex algorithm structure have been employed (offering the increased resource intensity of such tasks). It is argued that making a decision on the feasibility of using an energy hub for University buildings and selecting appropriate equipment should be accomplished with due regard to the structure and the capacity of energy consumers, their types, demands for quality and reliability of electric power supply, their compliance with operating and safety standards, as well as taking into account the results of climate, wind monitoring and monitoring of solar activity. The conclusions resume that to assure the energy quality and the system sustainability, it is considered important to resolve a range of issues related to inconsistency in generation and supply of renewable energy from power plants, ensuring reliability and quality of energy supply through the use of energy storage (batteries) in particular, etc.).