Referendum will not secure Ivory Coast peace
Significance The former aims to lay the foundation for future stability by removing a contentious nationality clause. As the trials of former regime figures get underway, however, the polls risk deepening political fault lines. Impacts If violence resurfaces, it could push Fitch to reconsider its recent decision to rate Ivory Coast at B+ with a stable outlook. The legislative poll's relatively low global profile will reduce oversight by international bodies. Electoral tensions will be unevenly distributed; localised violence is most likely in the cocoa-producing west. Public gatherings ahead of the electoral contests could prove enticing targets for the region's Islamist militants. However, substantial US and French anti-terror assistance will reduce the likelihood of another Grand Bassam-style attack.