Chad faces dire humanitarian picture after polls

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Groups ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Region Growing ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Rainy Period

Significance His nomination to run for yet another term met large protests in major towns including N'Djamena, where fighting broke out with security forces leading to arrests. In the last three years, Chad’s security and humanitarian situations have deteriorated as Deby battles escalating jihadist violence in the Sahel and the Lake Chad region, growing discontent from diverse interest groups and pressing humanitarian needs across the country. Impacts Chad and other G5 Sahel countries will seek an extension to the G20’s debt moratorium to help improve their precarious fiscal situation. The G5 Sahel will pursue expansion, potentially to include Ivory Coast and Senegal, in a bid to boost troop strength. Aid agencies will intensify their appeal for funds to help over 12 million people in need before the onset of the rainy period in June.

COVID-19 crisis may not benefit Sahelian jihadists

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Conflict Zones ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Remote Areas ◽  
State Security ◽  
Lake Chad Basin

Subject COVID-19 and jihadists. Significance Jihadist attacks are rising across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin regions, as are conflict fatalities more broadly. However, the increase cannot be solely, or even primarily, attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. The remote areas where jihadists fight are in the early stages of their respective outbreaks; much of the increased violence reflects pre-existing conflict dynamics. Many of the fatalities, meanwhile, are caused by state security forces, who may be taking advantage of the pandemic, even more than jihadists are, to target civilians with relative impunity. Impacts Sensitive talks between humanitarian aid groups and jihadists may determine the level of famine in parts of the Sahel over the short term. Relationships between governments and human rights groups and journalists will grow even tenser during COVID-19-related restrictions. Accurate information about conflict zones may become harder to obtain amid restrictions and increased government defensiveness.

New military rule is entrenching itself in Chad

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Military Rule ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Chad Basin ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Lake Chad Basin

Significance Although Deby and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed Chad’s political transition from military to civilian rule, the meeting’s emphasis was on security issues in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin, in Libya, and within Chad itself. Impacts Deby is investing substantial energy in foreign relations, not just with France but also with neighbouring states. If Deby and the CMT ultimately decide to prolong the transition, foreign objections will likely be fairly minimal and brief. Despite outcry from human rights groups over the security forces’ treatment of protesters in April and May, accountability is unlikely.

Emboldened Boko Haram will undermine Nigerian military

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Lake Chad Basin ◽  
Leadership Turnover ◽  
Operational Efficacy ◽  
The Military

Subject Boko Haram outlook. Significance The Nigerian Air Force announced on August 20 that it carried out “massive” bombing attacks earlier this month against Boko Haram forces regrouping around their former stronghold in the Sambisa Forest. This follows soon after the military allegedly killed Momodu Bama, second-in command to Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. Yet despite these renewed military efforts, the Nigerian army faces two still-capable Boko Haram factions, each of which has staged multiple deadly attacks in recent months. Impacts The Islamic State-linked Boko Haram faction has emerged as the most dangerous security threat in the Lake Chad Basin in the short term. The military will struggle to differentiate between Boko Haram factions, undermining operational efficacy. Leadership turnover within the security forces will not overcome the systemic problem of under-equipped and underprepared troops. Neighbouring countries, such as Niger and Cameroon, will bolster border security amid worsening Boko Haram and other criminal threats.

Ivory Coast-Burkina Faso border areas pose fresh risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
The South ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Border Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South West ◽  
Border Areas ◽  
Mission Operation

Significance The attack, which killed at least twelve members of the security forces, was an apparent act of revenge for the recent joint Ivorian-Burkinabe counterterrorist mission ‘Operation Comoe’. The attack shows a worrying similarity to jihadist operations in Burkina Faso, where militants regularly raid rural security posts. Impacts Facing potential sporadic attacks, Ivorian security forces may struggle initially to attune to counterinsurgency tactics in the border area. Given the more potent insurgencies in northern and eastern Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou will not consider the south-west a top priority. Rumours over the alleged involvement of dissident Ivorian politicians in the latest attack could elevate tensions in the electoral arena.

Intra-jihadist rivalry fuels violence in Lake Chad

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Economic Slowdown

Significance Competition between the jihadist groups remains tense and insecurity is being stoked further by intercommunal conflict over land and water resources that overstretched security forces are struggling to contain. Impacts Economic hardship will increase in the Lake Chad region amid the effects of climate change and economic slowdown due to the pandemic. Jihadist dominance in the region is almost certain to swing back and forth between ISWAP and Boko Haram. The use of the Boko Haram moniker to describe all jihadist operations poses challenges to accurate attribution of attacks.

Gbagbo will return to frontline Ivory Coast politics

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Election Victory

Significance Instead he aims to create a new party. The FPI has since denied reports of mass defections by the party grassroots to Gbagbo. This comes in the context of broader public reconciliation efforts by President Alassane Ouattara, who seeks political stability in the aftermath of a highly controversial October 2020 third-term election victory. Impacts Ouattara is unlikely to grant general amnesty to all political actors in order to keep some of them outside the country. Gbagbo will likely win over most, though not all, of his former supporters within the FPI. Struggles within Gbagbo’s former party and other opposition formations will weaken the opposition in the short term. Gbagbo will consolidate his position as the main opposition leader, threatening the country’s stability in the lead-up to the 2025 election.

Symbolic Ivory Coast meeting will raise vain hopes

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Content Type

Headline IVORY COAST: Symbolic meeting will raise vain hopes

Gang violence highlights Venezuela security crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
State Violence ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The government claims opposition factions linked to Guaido are behind the upsurge of ‘GEDO’ violence (Grupo Estructurado de Delincuencia Organizada, or Structured Organised Crime Group). Efforts by security forces to ‘stabilise’ GEDO-dominated communities may portend an upsurge in state violence. Impacts The Haitian president’s killing has strengthened the government narrative of externally orchestrated mercenary warfare. Concerns about state decomposition in Venezuela will add urgency to international efforts at successful dialogue. An already weakened Guaido is on the back foot following Guevara’s arrest and lacks the authority to enforce any negotiated outcomes.

Governance failures stifle the Sahel

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Violent Conflict ◽  
Public Health Impact ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constitutional Government ◽  
Governance Challenges ◽  
New Policies

Significance The region’s main challenges include lack of money and personnel, corruption, large geographies, escalating violent conflict and abuses by security forces -- deeply rooted problems that have no easy solutions. Impacts Although COVID-19’s public health impact has been less severe than seemed likely, the economic effects will compound other problems. Mali's transition back to a constitutional government (after an August 2020 coup) is unlikely to address deep governance challenges. Political continuity elsewhere in the region means imaginative new policies to improve governance do not appear to be in the offing.

Weak security forces threaten South African stability

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Police Reform ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Security ◽  
Intelligence Agencies

Significance These have long been matters of serious concern. President Cyril Ramaphosa on August 5 responded with a cabinet reshuffle that replaced the minister of defence, closed down the ministry of state security and moved intelligence agencies into the presidency. Impacts Planned cuts to security force budgets will be politically unsustainable. Ramaphosa’s decision to retain Minister of Police Bheki Cele in post casts doubt on the prospects of much-needed police reform. Incorporating intelligence functions into the presidency may speed reforms but also poses long-term dangers of more abuses.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document