Philippine mining sector will grow

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Headline PHILIPPINES: Mining sector will grow

Subject Congo's new mining code. Significance After five years of deliberation, Congo’s parliament on January 27 adopted new legislation regulating the all-important mining sector. If signed by President Joseph Kabila, the sweeping overhaul will raise royalties, introduce new taxes and remove existing investor protections. International mining companies are planning to fight back, but the government appears unwilling to yield, betting on Congo’s position as the world’s largest source of cobalt. Impacts The authorities could threaten or execute expropriation of a major project to demonstrate their seriousness. New projects might be suspended or shelved. Investors might increase contacts with Kabila’s political opponents to raise pressure on the embattled president. The removal of investor protections will damage already-fragile confidence in Congo’s wider business environment.


Significance His remarks follow an Indonesian Coal Mining Association forecast in November that coal consumption in 2017 had increased 16% over 2016's levels. The rise in domestic coal consumption is emblematic of Indonesia’s energy demands, and the effects of uncertain overseas demand for Indonesian coal. Impacts The coal lobby will be a strong force in Indonesian politics for decades. Coal-centred energy plans could harm Indonesia’s population and environment. Indonesian renewable energies will be underdeveloped unless official policy changes. Government efforts to draw more income from the mining sector will intensify.


Subject Zimbabwe mining prospects. Significance President Emmerson Mnangagwa has repeatedly said Zimbabwe is open for business, but this has yet to be backed up by substantive legislative reform or efforts at tackling entrenched corruption. Without fundamental changes, Zimbabwe’s mining sector will continue to deter legitimate investors and remain dominated by military and political elites. Impacts Rejoining the Commonwealth could help improve the overall investment climate, but only if substantive democratic reforms are pursued. Minerals will be the key economic prospect that Mnangagwa can use to entice foreign investors in the short term. Should ZANU-PF triumph in the polls, ruling party infighting could intensify over Mnangagwa’s future successor.


Subject Outlook for the mining sector. Significance Encouraged by this year’s price increases for most of Peru’s mineral exports, the government is seeking to push ahead with plans to attract much-needed foreign investment into the mining industry. This will involve politically contentious moves to deregulate some of the cumbersome procedures that affect investors. Impacts Next year’s growth target of 4% is probably over-optimistic. Social and environmental protests will add to the costs of mining investment in Peru. Once opposition has emerged to projects, it will prove difficult to reverse. Climate change will accentuate problems of water shortage for mining operations.


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Headline EGYPT: Cairo may consider major changes for mining


Significance The prospects for the mining sector in 2017 will be significantly shaped by uranium prices. Despite a difficult macro-economic environment, Namibia is positioning itself to take advantage of a potential rebound in commodity prices. While several projects are on hold and existing mines continue to limit production at current prices, the Swakop Uranium-owned Husab mine is set to make Namibia the world's third-largest uranium producer. Impacts Increased mineral exports will reduce a 294-million-dollar budget deficit. Unemployment should fall, although mining's contribution will be limited due to prevailing production models. Debates on local-ownership requirements are likely to become more polarised in the run-up to SWAPO’s elective congress later this year.


Subject The mining outlook in Ecuador. Significance The collapse of world oil prices has forced the government of President Rafael Correa to search for new sources of public revenue and foreign investment. The mining sector, which remains underdeveloped, has the potential to make significant contributions on both of these fronts. Reflecting the growing importance of the sector, the government has a created a Mining Ministry and appointed a mining minister. While numerous challenges continue to face the industry, it has shown signs of increased activity in the opening six months of the year. Impacts Opponents of mining development will attempt to impede medium and large-scale projects, through the courts and on the streets. Changes to water laws and policies will face opposition due to fears they may facilitate mine development and threaten water supplies. While investment in the mining sector will boost economic activity, the economy will expand more slowly than expected in 2015.


Subject Zambian mining instability. Significance Copper miner First Quantum Minerals says it has not discovered material errors in its customs payments after bringing in external auditors to scrutinise transactions between 2013 and 2017. This follows claims by the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) that Quantum underpaid the authorities by 76.50 billion kwacha (8.15 billion dollars). The Zambian government appears to be attempting to squeeze First Quantum and other mining companies -- whose transactions it also intends to audit -- to raise much-needed revenue amid ballooning government debt. Impacts The government’s pattern of implementing policy changes without meaningful consultation is likely to persist. Policy uncertainty and government efforts to squeeze more revenue from miners may deter large new mining investments in the short term. Much-needed spending on infrastructure and logistics will remain small, scattered and dependent on countries such as China and India.


Significance The act, aimed at improving government efficiency by closing or merging departments and state entities, is one of the priorities President Rodrigo Duterte set in his second State of the Nation Address (SONA) to congress on July 24, in which he also set out a critical position towards the country’s mining sector. Impacts Police and military capacity spending will rise, but aid, chiefly from Beijing and Washington, is needed. The government’s pro-environment, pro-corporate social responsibility agenda could extend to non-mining economic firms. The administration will need foreign governments’ help to crack down on international drug supply chains. Streamlining government will see controversy and debate over what gets shut or merged.


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