Namibian mining boost to prompt growth return

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Local Ownership ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Production Models ◽  
Run Up

Significance The prospects for the mining sector in 2017 will be significantly shaped by uranium prices. Despite a difficult macro-economic environment, Namibia is positioning itself to take advantage of a potential rebound in commodity prices. While several projects are on hold and existing mines continue to limit production at current prices, the Swakop Uranium-owned Husab mine is set to make Namibia the world's third-largest uranium producer. Impacts Increased mineral exports will reduce a 294-million-dollar budget deficit. Unemployment should fall, although mining's contribution will be limited due to prevailing production models. Debates on local-ownership requirements are likely to become more polarised in the run-up to SWAPO’s elective congress later this year.

Zimbabwe's economic rebound faces multiple hurdles

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Debt Relief ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Policy Targets

Subject Zimbabwe economic update. Significance Improving investor sentiment following new President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s initial reforms reflects pent-up foreign appetite for access to Zimbabwe’s vast mineral assets, amid improving global commodity prices. However, Western governments are unlikely to endorse the government’s policies until tangible progress emerges on outstanding human rights and governance concerns. Weak fiscal consolidation measures and over-optimism regarding policy targets are holdovers from former President Robert Mugabe's tenure that could weaken the credibility of longer-term reform plans, particularly when it comes to securing debt relief. Impacts The US extension of sanctions against Mnangagwa and his officials over governance issues is a blow to fledgling investor hopes. Inflationary pressures, after the long deflation, may further impinge on growth by dampening disposable incomes. Spending pressures in the run-up to elections could increase issuance of bond notes, which already exceed their 200,000-dollar limit by 45%.

scholarly journals Stock returns, oil prices and leverage: evidence from US firms

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Ruhul Amin ◽  
Andre Varella Mollick
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Debt Maturity ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Effects

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate how the relation between stock returns of US firms and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices is affected by leverage from 1990 to 2020.Design/methodology/approachThis paper examines how the relationship between stock returns of US firms and WTI oil prices is affected by leverage from 1990 to 2020 using a fixed-effect model estimation framework.FindingsResults from the fixed-effect regression models suggest that leverage effects on stock returns are pervasive both in aggregate and cross-industry levels, while the mining industry is more sensitive. In addition to the positive oil price effects attenuated by leverage at the aggregate level, the authors observe stronger marginal effects of leverage only for the mining sector. Being more exposed to commodity prices, the positive effects of oil prices on stock returns in the mining sector are offset by large debt ratios. Asymmetries, effects of debt maturity structure and implications are also discussed.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is grounded on the contemporary cash flow claim of leverage NOT on the long-run effect of leverage considering cash flow constraints. The oil price increase is assumed to represent an advancement of the overall economy. This study does not capture the oil prices response to some other economic forces and vice-versa.Practical implicationsMining companies should therefore reduce the stock of debt with respect to their assets to make possible the “pass-through” from oil prices to the stock market.Originality/valuePreviously undocumented and the authors show that leverage reduces the total effect of oil prices on stock returns, consistent with the hypothesis. Asymmetric and debt maturity structures effects are also discussed.

Mining roadblocks stifle Guinea post-Ebola recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Development ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Malaria Diagnosis ◽  
Diagnosis And Treatment ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Group Violence ◽  
State Participation ◽  
United Front

Subject Outlook for the mining sector in Guinea. Significance Ahead of presidential polls in October and amid predictions that the economy will contract by 0.3% this year, President Alpha Conde is prioritising mining sector reform. Through greater state participation, he hopes to secure local development benefits. However, the sector remains frustrated by inadequate infrastructure, low commodity prices and investor unease, recently exacerbated by the Ebola crisis. Impacts Popular avoidance of clinics over Ebola-linked fears will undermine malaria diagnosis and treatment, driving up fatalities. The likely tie-up between Camara, Diallo and Sidya Toure could create a united front against Conde, posing a real electoral threat. However, Camara's indictment for a 2009 massacre, issued on July 8, could complicate his ability to campaign on the ground. Mobilisation along ethnic lines could escalate rhetoric ahead of polls, raising the risk of inter-group violence.

Regulatory uncertainty mars Colombian mining outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Regulatory Environment ◽  
Mining Operations ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Illegal Mining ◽  
Regulatory Uncertainty ◽  
Mining Projects ◽  
Exploration Activity

Subject The outlook for the mining sector. Significance Mining firms operating in Colombia have expressed increasing concern over the lack of clarity in legislation governing extractive activity in the country. Difficulties in navigating the complex regulatory environment, and the unclear direction of future reform, have served to increase risks for those planning substantial investments in mining projects. Coupled with lower global commodity prices, the confused state of legislation is encouraging extractive firms to delay or scale back their investments. Impacts Poor performance of the mining sector is likely to have negative implications for overall economic growth. The reduction in exploration activity could jeopardise mining performance for several years, by reducing the pipeline of new projects. Reduced formal exploitation increases the risk of invasions by environmentally unsound informal and illegal mining operations.

President will try to fracture Congolese opposition

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leader Following ◽  
Political Figure

Significance On March 3 the main opposition bloc in the DRC, Le Rassemblement (or the Rally), announced that Tshisekedi, whose UDPS is one of the central groups comprising the Rally, had taken over as leader following the death of his father and former leader Etienne Tshisekedi. Although a known political figure, Felix lacks both the experience and political savvy of his late father. Under his leadership, the opposition may fracture as politicians work towards implementing a fragile political accord agreed to at the start of the year. Impacts Western states will condemn any attempt by Kabila to change the constitution. Developments in the mining sector and rising commodity prices will improve Kinshasa’s fiscal position. Restive eastern regions will witness an escalation in conflict until elections are held.

Spillovers to the Global South

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Global South ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Global Crisis ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The World ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Very High

The crisis demolished the myth that EDEs were decoupled from advanced economies and BRICS were becoming new engines of global growth. From 2011 onwards, with the end of the twin booms in commodity prices and capital inflows, growth in EDEs has converged downward towards the depressed levels of advanced economies from the very high levels achieved in the run-up to the global crisis and the immediate aftermath. Loss of momentum is particularly visible in economies that failed to manage the earlier booms prudently. In examining the spillovers from policies in major advanced economies and China to EDEs, the chapter introduces the notion of commodity-finance nexus wherein these markets reinforce each other during both expansions and contractions. The chapter concludes with a brief discussion of policies needed to put the world economy into decent shape and to avoid liquidity and debt crises in EDEs.

scholarly journals User engagement with political “facts” in the context of the fake news phenomenon

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (5) ◽  
pp. 1082-1099 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rita Marcella ◽  
Graeme Baxter ◽  
Agnieszka Walicka
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Information Quality ◽  
User Engagement ◽  
Government Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Subject Knowledge ◽  
Perceived Credibility ◽  
North East ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Quality Awareness

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the results of a study that explored human behaviour in response to political “facts” presented online by political parties in Scotland. Design/methodology/approach The study consisted of interactive online interviews with 23 citizens in North-East Scotland, in the run-up to the 2017 UK General Election. Findings Participants demonstrated cognitive and critical responses to facts but little affective reaction. They judged facts swiftly and largely intuitively, providing evidence that facts are frequently consumed, accepted or rejected without further verification processes. Users demonstrated varying levels of engagement with the information they consume, and subject knowledge may influence the extent to which respondents trust facts, in previously unanticipated ways. Users tended to notice facts with which they disagreed and, in terms of prominence, particularly noted and responded to facts which painted extremely negative or positive pictures. Most acknowledged limitations in capacity to interrogate facts, but some were delusionally confident. Originality/value Relatively little empirical research has been conducted exploring the perceived credibility of political or government information online. It is believed that this and a companion study are the first to have specifically investigated the Scottish political arena. This paper presents a new, exploratory fact interrogation model, alongside an expanded information quality awareness model.

scholarly journals Assessing the sustainable nature of housing-related taxation receipts: the case of Ireland

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diarmaid Addison Smyth ◽  
Kieran McQuinn
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Financial Market Regulation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis ◽  
Run Up

Purpose The Irish fiscal position was significantly affected by the recent financial crisis. Budgetary surpluses quickly gave way to significant deficits post 2007, culminating into a lengthy excessive deficit procedure and entry into a formal EU/IMF assistance programme in 2010. Much of the deterioration in the public finances was caused by a sharp decline in property-related taxes because the Irish housing market rapidly contracted. In this paper, the authors quantify the extent to which disequilibria in the housing market can affect the tax take, finding significant implications over an extended period. Design/methodology/approach The authors attempt to quantify the extent of housing-related tax windfall gains and losses in Ireland over a 30-year period as a result of disequilibrium in the housing market. This involves a three-step modelling approach where we relate property-dependent taxes to the housing market while estimating equilibrium in the latter before solving for the tax take consistent with that equilibrium. In so doing, the authors find that the fiscal position compatible with equilibrium in the housing market has at times diverged greatly from actual outturns. Findings This paper confirms the significant role played by the housing market in influencing both the tax-take and the overall fiscal position. The authors find that there have been a number of instances where excesses in the housing market have spilled over into fiscal aggregates, notably in the housing bubble period between 2003 and 2008. However, with the on-going adjustments in the housing market, it would appear that prices and volumes have overcorrected in recent years. Overall, much greater emphasis should be given to the role of the housing market in forecasting key taxation aggregates. Originality/value The recent crisis highlighted how domestic policy mistakes (both in terms of budgetary planning and financial market regulation) can greatly amplify economic shocks. Irish budgetary policy in the run up to the financial crisis of 2008/2009 was clearly based on unsustainable levels of housing-related tax receipts. This paper highlights the need for a much more granular approach in framing tax forecasts and in assessing the public finances by more explicitly factoring in housing market developments.

Risk assessment of mining projects in Ghana

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Teye Amoatey ◽  
Samuel Famiyeh ◽  
Peter Andoh
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Culture ◽  
Mining Project ◽  
Mining Projects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the critical risk factors affecting mining projects in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach A purposive sampling approach was used in selecting the respondents for the study. These were practitioners working on mining projects in Ghana. Findings The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical mining project risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were unstable commodity prices, inflation/exchange rate, land degradation, high cost of living and government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were identified. Research limitations/implications This paper is limited to data collected from practitioners working on mining projects. Due to geographic and logistical constraints, the study did not include the perception of local communities in quantifying the risk factors. Practical implications This paper has documented the critical risk factor affecting the mining industry in Ghana. Though the identified risk types are also prevalent in other sectors of the construction industry, the key findings of this paper emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the mining sector. From an academic research perspective, the paper contributes to a conceptual risk assessment framework. Originality/value The information gathered through this research can be utilized in identifying and understanding risks during the early stages of mining project implementation.

Critical minerals demand will boost Canadian mining

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Rare Earth ◽  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Alternative Source ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Critical Minerals

Significance Although low commodity prices deterred investment in recent years, this is changing as the market rallies. The creation of a regional electric vehicle (EV) supply chain straddling the Canada-US border has the potential to transform the Canadian mining sector while loosening China’s grip on the minerals used in high-performance batteries. Impacts Canada is the world’s eighth-largest cobalt producer and has significant copper, graphite and rare earth deposits. Fortune Minerals, which is developing a cobalt mine in Northwest Territories, has held funding talks with the US Export/Import Bank. First Cobalt is building North America’s only cobalt refinery to give battery makers an alternative source to the DRC. Several of the country’s mines are using cutting-edge technologies to reduce their carbon emissions.

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