Zimbabwean mining push faces vested interests

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Elites ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legislative Reform ◽  
Economic Prospect ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Zimbabwe mining prospects. Significance President Emmerson Mnangagwa has repeatedly said Zimbabwe is open for business, but this has yet to be backed up by substantive legislative reform or efforts at tackling entrenched corruption. Without fundamental changes, Zimbabwe’s mining sector will continue to deter legitimate investors and remain dominated by military and political elites. Impacts Rejoining the Commonwealth could help improve the overall investment climate, but only if substantive democratic reforms are pursued. Minerals will be the key economic prospect that Mnangagwa can use to entice foreign investors in the short term. Should ZANU-PF triumph in the polls, ruling party infighting could intensify over Mnangagwa’s future successor.

Domestic matters will determine Mexican foreign policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Critical Rhetoric ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Profile ◽  
Latin American And Caribbean

Significance The move follows Mexico’s hosting of a Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) summit last month, and provides an opportunity to expand the country’s international profile. However, AMLO generally disregards foreign policy, except as a tool for advancing domestic interests and building public support. Impacts US relations will continue to dominate foreign policy, despite AMLO’s critical rhetoric about rich nations. In the short term, Mexico will frame its foreign policy around calls for increased access to COVID-19 vaccines. Mexico’s energy policy could become a source of international tension, given its potential implications for foreign investors.

Armenia's investment climate will remain harsh

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Virgin Islands ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Barriers To Entry ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Majority Shareholder

Subject The difficulties of doing business in Armenia. Significance Covert ties to the elite, corruption and the presence of monopolies make the investment and operating climate relatively unappealing for foreign investors. British Virgin Islands-headquartered East Prospect Fund warned in mid-August that an assault on the majority shareholder of Air Armenia, Arsen Avetisyan, could jeopardise its investment. However, it later announced it would go ahead with investing 70 million dollars. The Prosecutor-General's Office says it is not instituting proceedings against the alleged attacker, businessman Ruben Hayrapetyan, who has close ties to President Serzh Sargsyan, as Avetisyan has withdrawn his complaint. Impacts In the short term, dram appreciation against the ruble will make it more expensive for Russian firms to invest in Armenia. Investors' concerns about the business and political climate may increase in the run-up to the May 2017 parliamentary election. Barriers to entry will remain high in sectors controlled by oligarchs.

Kenya election controversy increasingly likely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Electoral Fraud ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Security ◽  
Voter Fraud ◽  
Election Violence ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance Opposition leader Raila Odinga and supporters of his National Super Alliance (NASA) have long since lost faith in the capacity of the IEBC to deliver a free and fair election and have regularly alleged that the ruling party plans to steal the vote. Opposition supporters claim Msando was killed because he was determined to ensure that the technology designed to prevent electoral fraud worked -- his murder lends credibility to Odinga's narrative that the process is being undermined from within. With only a week until the election, attention is focused not on political platforms but on the potential for voter fraud or a contested result. Impacts Electoral controversies and the delegitimisation of the electoral commission increase the risk of post-election violence. Widespread ethnic clashes on the scale of 2007-08 are unlikely due to heavy deployments of state security forces. Political instability, even if limited, will deter tourism and investment, hurting short-term economic growth.

Bangladesh’s drug war helps ruling party in short term

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Refugee Camps ◽  
Illegal Trade ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Drug War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
High Commissioner ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Bangladesh's narcotics crackdown. Significance Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is overseeing a ‘drug war’, with security personnel targeting illegal trade in yaba (methamphetamines). The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has criticised the campaign, in which an estimated 150 people have been killed and at least 13,000 arrested since mid-May. The ruling Awami League (AL) is expected to retain power in the general election, due by late December. Impacts The yaba trade will worsen social conditions in Rohingya refugee camps. India’s north-east could face an increasing problem of yaba trafficking. Bangladesh’s election campaign is likely to involve widespread use of undeclared money.

Ecuador's left is down but far from out

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vice President ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Face Former ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The first round's leading candidate, former Vice-President Lenin Moreno, of the leftist ruling party Alianza Pais, will face former banker and centre-right candidate Guillermo Lasso on April 2. The announcement came amid accusations of fraud and growing criticism over the delays in releasing the official results. Impacts The election results will increase economic uncertainty and dampen economic activity in the short term. Political tensions will rise as the two presidential candidates battle to secure votes outside of their core constituencies. Whatever the runoff result, Alianza Pais will hold its National Assembly majority, exerting significant influence over legislative matters. With economic woes hindering the new government, four years of unpopular right-wing rule could pave the way for a Correa comeback in 2021.

Zambian mining sector could see further instability

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Debt ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Auditors ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
China And India

Subject Zambian mining instability. Significance Copper miner First Quantum Minerals says it has not discovered material errors in its customs payments after bringing in external auditors to scrutinise transactions between 2013 and 2017. This follows claims by the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) that Quantum underpaid the authorities by 76.50 billion kwacha (8.15 billion dollars). The Zambian government appears to be attempting to squeeze First Quantum and other mining companies -- whose transactions it also intends to audit -- to raise much-needed revenue amid ballooning government debt. Impacts The government’s pattern of implementing policy changes without meaningful consultation is likely to persist. Policy uncertainty and government efforts to squeeze more revenue from miners may deter large new mining investments in the short term. Much-needed spending on infrastructure and logistics will remain small, scattered and dependent on countries such as China and India.

East Timor’s ruling party faces election defeat

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
East Timor ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
Politics Of Resistance ◽  
National Congress ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The poll follows the collapse of the minority government led by President Francisco Guterres’s and Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri’s Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (Fretilin). A parliamentary grouping led by Xanana Gusmao’s National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) had blocked Fretilin’s budget, with the CNRT now leading a Change for Progress Alliance (AMP). Impacts If Fretilin’s support drops below 30%, Alkatiri may come under pressure to relinquish leadership of the party. The dominance in East Timorese politics of resistance-era political elites will increase. Given Australia’s closer relations with ASEAN, the boundary treaty with East Timor will add to Canberra’s growing influence in the region.

Malaysia will struggle to foster economic growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Management ◽  
Finance Minister

Subject Malaysia's 2019 budget. Significance Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng’s 314.5-billion-ringgit (75-billion-dollar) budget for 2019, tabled earlier this month, will likely be approved in parliament before year-end. The first budget under Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad anticipates a budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP. Shortly after coming to power this May, Mahathir said he would give way to Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition partner Anwar Ibrahim within two years. Impacts The PH’s fiscal management will bolster confidence among foreign investors and credit ratings agencies. The lack of budget handouts to rural Malay constituencies could weaken political support for the PH in the short term. Government borrowing will likely become more expensive through 2019. The digital economy tax introduced in the budget will come into effect in 2020. Corruption investigations into missing revenues could result in further legal charges against members of the former government.

Greek recovery will support improving property sector

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Growth ◽  
Commercial Viability ◽  
Real Estate Project ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
Real Estate Management

Subject The positive dynamics that are appearing in the property and construction sectors. Significance The commercial viability of buy-to-let transactions has enticed foreign investors and increased opportunities for local real estate management companies. Nascent economic growth in 2018 has also sustained a nationwide recovery in commercial rents and real estate prices. Impacts Credit shortages will preclude middle-class Greeks from participating in the market’s recuperation, dampening short-term market growth. Work starting on the Hellinikon real estate project in early 2019 would provide an important positive market signal for foreign investors. However, persisting economic uncertainty will limit the investor universe to those willing to take higher risk.

South Korea's leader may be less secure than he looks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Approval Rating ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject The strengths and weaknesses of South Korea's president and ruling party. Significance President Moon Jae-in's approval rating was 79% as of June 14, a record for any South Korean president after a year in office. His left-of-centre ruling Democratic Party (DP) won an unprecedented landslide in nationwide local elections on June 13; it now runs 14 of the 17 provinces and major cities. The party also won eleven of twelve National Assembly by-elections, gaining eight. He now faces no electoral tests until the next parliamentary elections, due in April 2020. Impacts Political party regroupings are likely, with possible mergers consolidating both the left and right. The short-term prospects for inter-Korean engagement appear good. The main risks regarding North Korea are US President Donald Trump’s unpredictability and uncertainty over Pyongyang's ultimate aims.

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