Zambian mining sector could see further instability

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Debt ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Auditors ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
China And India

Subject Zambian mining instability. Significance Copper miner First Quantum Minerals says it has not discovered material errors in its customs payments after bringing in external auditors to scrutinise transactions between 2013 and 2017. This follows claims by the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) that Quantum underpaid the authorities by 76.50 billion kwacha (8.15 billion dollars). The Zambian government appears to be attempting to squeeze First Quantum and other mining companies -- whose transactions it also intends to audit -- to raise much-needed revenue amid ballooning government debt. Impacts The government’s pattern of implementing policy changes without meaningful consultation is likely to persist. Policy uncertainty and government efforts to squeeze more revenue from miners may deter large new mining investments in the short term. Much-needed spending on infrastructure and logistics will remain small, scattered and dependent on countries such as China and India.

Tanzanian export ban unlikely to drive investors away

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Extractive Industries ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
Smelting Capacity

Subject Tanzania metal ore export ban. Significance On March 2, the Tanzanian government announced it had banned export of metal ores by international mining companies, in what firms see as part of a continuing attack on the extractive industries sector. The government has attempted to negotiate increased tax bills, or settlement of unpaid ones, and has repeatedly threatened to take a greater slice of revenues. Impacts Donor criticisms of the ban will be muted but further restrictive measures would cause concern. Mining sector employment could be damaged in the short term as investment shifts to developing smelting capacity over expanding production. Magufuli’s popularity is likely to persist and he will be projected as a champion against exploitative foreign interests.

Conflict looms between Congo and mining companies

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Environment ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investor Protections ◽  
Major Project

Subject Congo's new mining code. Significance After five years of deliberation, Congo’s parliament on January 27 adopted new legislation regulating the all-important mining sector. If signed by President Joseph Kabila, the sweeping overhaul will raise royalties, introduce new taxes and remove existing investor protections. International mining companies are planning to fight back, but the government appears unwilling to yield, betting on Congo’s position as the world’s largest source of cobalt. Impacts The authorities could threaten or execute expropriation of a major project to demonstrate their seriousness. New projects might be suspended or shelved. Investors might increase contacts with Kabila’s political opponents to raise pressure on the embattled president. The removal of investor protections will damage already-fragile confidence in Congo’s wider business environment.

Indonesia’s coal and energy plans face hurdles

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Coal Mining ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Coal Consumption ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Force ◽  
Energy Demands ◽  
Official Policy ◽  
Indonesian Coal ◽  
Population And Environment

Significance His remarks follow an Indonesian Coal Mining Association forecast in November that coal consumption in 2017 had increased 16% over 2016's levels. The rise in domestic coal consumption is emblematic of Indonesia’s energy demands, and the effects of uncertain overseas demand for Indonesian coal. Impacts The coal lobby will be a strong force in Indonesian politics for decades. Coal-centred energy plans could harm Indonesia’s population and environment. Indonesian renewable energies will be underdeveloped unless official policy changes. Government efforts to draw more income from the mining sector will intensify.

Zimbabwean mining push faces vested interests

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Elites ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legislative Reform ◽  
Economic Prospect ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Zimbabwe mining prospects. Significance President Emmerson Mnangagwa has repeatedly said Zimbabwe is open for business, but this has yet to be backed up by substantive legislative reform or efforts at tackling entrenched corruption. Without fundamental changes, Zimbabwe’s mining sector will continue to deter legitimate investors and remain dominated by military and political elites. Impacts Rejoining the Commonwealth could help improve the overall investment climate, but only if substantive democratic reforms are pursued. Minerals will be the key economic prospect that Mnangagwa can use to entice foreign investors in the short term. Should ZANU-PF triumph in the polls, ruling party infighting could intensify over Mnangagwa’s future successor.

South African mining could ride out lockdown period

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Power Supply ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Position ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
The Government

Subject South African post-lockdown mining. Significance Three weeks into its COVID-19-related lockdown, the government allowed certain mines to ramp up to 100% capacity (coal and opencast operations) and others to 50% (underground operations), making it the first non-essential industry allowed to resume full or partial operations. This particularly benefits smaller, more marginal mines, as larger ones were already in a relatively resilient financial position. However, more fundamental issues continue to weigh on the industry, such as costly and erratic power supply and ongoing policy uncertainty. Impacts An extended lockdown and the economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis could see a rise in community-based protests interrupting operations. A surge in COVID-19 infections at mines and subsequent closures will cast doubt over the feasibility of the industry's short-term strategy. The growing financial stress on workers may prompt more militant demands during scheduled coal wage negotiations later this year.

Argentine economic shifts will not bring rapid relief

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rapid Improvement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Export Taxes ◽  
Substantial Progress ◽  
Rapid Relief

Significance In his first month in office, President Mauricio Macri made substantial progress in removing controls implemented by the former administration. The new government liberalised the foreign exchange market, increasingly constrained over the last four years, and international trade, with the lifting of most export taxes and the removal of controversial non-automatic import licences. Impacts Policy changes will not bring rapid improvement, with little recovery this year or next. This will raise social conflict in the short term, putting governability at risk. Medium-term price stabilisation, in the framework of a managed float and an inflation target regime, may drive a rebound.

Egypt gold mining boom comes with risks for investors

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gold Mining ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Specialist Service ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Petroleum Sector ◽  
The Military

Significance The government is prioritising expansion of the mining sector, including attracting foreign investment, after many years of neglect. However, the military's increasing dominance of parts of the economy, including the mining sector, creates risks, especially for foreign investors. Impacts The Egyptian bureaucracy and lack of specialist service providers will create obstacles for private sector investors. There is no immediate prospect of a legal framework to govern business relations between the military and international mining companies. Investors will not face the same credit risk in the mining sector as operators in the petroleum sector face.

South African mining sector turmoil could worsen

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Relations ◽  
The Third

Significance Lonmin has spent 1.6 billion dollars in cash since 2008 and lost 98% of its value since 2012. The takeover will reportedly see 12,600 of Lonmin’s 35,000 jobs cut over three years. Job losses in the mining sector in the third quarter alone were recorded at 9,000, despite a recent recovery in mining production. Impacts Reduced investment into the mining sector in the short term is likely as labour relations become even more volatile. Mining industry contraction will stifle dependent upstream and downstream sectors. The recently gazetted Mining Charter is likely to be ruled unconstitutional early next year.

Mining promotion will spark local conflicts in Peru

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Shortages ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Southern Peru ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
The Government

Subject Outlook for the mining sector. Significance With tensions building up over mining concessions once again across southern Peru, President Martin Vizcarra's government is under growing pressure to produce formulae that attract investment without provoking the sort of social and environmental protests that have flourished over the last two decades. Some mining companies themselves have made strides in accommodating themselves to adverse local conditions. Impacts With minerals prices subject to volatile demand in China, investors may prefer to hedge their bets. The government lacks capacity to mediate conflict once it has arisen. Water shortages will become more acute with time.

Peru's Vizcarra faces grave challenges in final year

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decisions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
Single Term ◽  
Judicial Systems

Significance It was his last such speech, as Peru is entering an election year and has single-term presidencies. Having recently reshuffled his cabinet, Vizcarra is seeking closer relations with business. His plans to reform the political and judicial systems remain far from complete. Impacts The COVID-19 pandemic will continue to affect Peru for at least several more months. Steps will probably be taken to streamline investment decisions in the mining sector. Conflicts between mining companies and communities over extractive operations will resurface as the COVID-19 shutdown is relaxed.

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