Hyperparameter Tuning of a Correntropy based ANN for Daily Electric Power Peak Load Forecasting by Modified Brain Storm Optimization

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoki Sato ◽  
Yoshikazu Fukuyama ◽  
Tatsuya Iizaka ◽  
Tetsuro Matsui
Keyword(s):  
Electric Power ◽  
Peak Load ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Brain Storm Optimization ◽  
Power Peak

scholarly journals Forecasting for Ultra-Short-Term Electric Power Load Based on Integrated Artificial Neural Networks

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1063 ◽  
Author(s):  
Horng-Lin Shieh ◽  
Fu-Hsien Chen
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Production Efficiency ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Power Load Forecasting ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Electric Power Load

Energy efficiency and renewable energy are the two main research topics for sustainable energy. In the past ten years, countries around the world have invested a lot of manpower into new energy research. However, in addition to new energy development, energy efficiency technologies need to be emphasized to promote production efficiency and reduce environmental pollution. In order to improve power production efficiency, an integrated solution regarding the issue of electric power load forecasting was proposed in this study. The solution proposed was to, in combination with persistence and search algorithms, establish a new integrated ultra-short-term electric power load forecasting method based on the adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and back-propagation neural network (BPN), which can be applied in forecasting electric power load in Taiwan. The research methodology used in this paper was mainly to acquire and process the all-day electric power load data of Taiwan Power and execute preliminary forecasting values of the electric power load by applying ANFIS, BPN and persistence. The preliminary forecasting values of the electric power load obtained therefrom were called suboptimal solutions and finally the optimal weighted value was determined by applying a search algorithm through integrating the above three methods by weighting. In this paper, the optimal electric power load value was forecasted based on the weighted value obtained therefrom. It was proven through experimental results that the solution proposed in this paper can be used to accurately forecast electric power load, with a minimal error.

scholarly journals Uncontrolled Electric Vehicle Charging Impacts on Distribution Electric Power Systems with Primarily Residential, Commercial or Industrial Loads

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1688 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Birk Jones ◽  
Matthew Lave ◽  
William Vining ◽  
Brooke Marshall Garcia
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Low Voltage ◽  
Peak Load ◽  
Electric Power Systems ◽  
Primary System ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Actual Distribution ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ev Charging

An increase in Electric Vehicles (EV) will result in higher demands on the distribution electric power systems (EPS) which may result in thermal line overloading and low voltage violations. To understand the impact, this work simulates two EV charging scenarios (home- and work-dominant) under potential 2030 EV adoption levels on 10 actual distribution feeders that support residential, commercial, and industrial loads. The simulations include actual driving patterns of existing (non-EV) vehicles taken from global positioning system (GPS) data. The GPS driving behaviors, which explain the spatial and temporal EV charging demands, provide information on each vehicles travel distance, dwell locations, and dwell durations. Then, the EPS simulations incorporate the EV charging demands to calculate the power flow across the feeder. Simulation results show that voltage impacts are modest (less than 0.01 p.u.), likely due to robust feeder designs and the models only represent the high-voltage (“primary”) system components. Line loading impacts are more noticeable, with a maximum increase of about 15%. Additionally, the feeder peak load times experience a slight shift for residential and mixed feeders (≈1 h), not at all for the industrial, and 8 h for the commercial feeder.

Peak Load Forecasting Using Long-Short Term Memory : Case Study of Jawa-Madura-Bali System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anindita Satria Surya ◽  
Musa Partahi Marbun ◽  
K.G.H. Mangunkusumo ◽  
Muhammad Ridwan
Keyword(s):  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Peak Load ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

scholarly journals Practical Operation Strategies for Energy Storage System under Uncertainty

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1098 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minsoo Kim ◽  
Kangsan Kim ◽  
Hyungeun Choi ◽  
Seonjeong Lee ◽  
Hongseok Kim
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Peak Power ◽  
Storage System ◽  
Peak Load ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Energy Storage System ◽  
Real Time Control ◽  
Time Control ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
Marginal Power

Recent advances in battery technologies have reduced the financial burden of using the energy storage system (ESS) for customers. Peak cut, one of the benefits of using ESS, can be achieved through proper charging/discharging scheduling of ESS. However, peak cut is sensitive to load-forecasting error, and even a small forecasting error may result in the failure of peak cut. In this paper, we propose a two-phase approach of day-ahead optimization and real-time control for minimizing the total cost that comes from time-of-use (TOU), peak load, and battery degradation. In day-ahead optimization, we propose to use an internalized pricing to manage peak load in addition to the cost from TOU. The proposed method can be implemented by using dynamic programming, which also has an advantage of accommodating the state-dependent battery degradation cost. Then in real-time control, we propose a concept of marginal power to alleviate the performance loss incurred from load-forecasting error and mimic the offline optimal battery scheduling by learning from load-forecasting error. By exploiting the marginal power, real-time ESS charging/discharging power gets close to the offline optimal battery scheduling. Case studies show that under load-forecasting uncertainty, the peak power using the proposed method is only 22.4% higher than the offline optimal peak power, while the day-ahead optimization has 76.8% higher peak power than the offline optimal power. In terms of profit, the proposed method achieves 77.0% of the offline optimal profit while the day-ahead method only earns 19.6% of the offline optimal profit, which shows the substantial improvement of the proposed method.

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