The Calculation of Volatility in Real Option Investment Decision-Making Model Using System Dynamics Models

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruohong Peng ◽  
Nan Zheng ◽  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Dynamics Models ◽  
Decision Making Model

scholarly journals The use of tools and approaches of system dynamics in the analysis of the efficiency of BIM implementation and its impact on the management and planning of investments in the construction sector

2019 ◽  
Vol 279 ◽  
pp. 01011
Author(s):  
Martin Hotový
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Strategic Investment ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents the use of tools and approaches of system dynamics in the analysis of the efficiency of BIM tools implementation in relation to the management and planning of investments in the construction sector. The dynamic model based on the approach of system dynamics allows to simulate the impact rate (range) of BIM implementation in strategic investment decision-making in the construction sector. Based on the analysis, the key parameters critically affecting the large construction investment projects are determined. The proposed model is implemented as a submodel in the dynamic model designed for potential refinements in the strategic planning of the extent of investments into projects of civil infrastructure of the Czech Republic. The model allows to test different strategies in the virtual world before their implementation. The prediction of future developments based on the proposed model allows to streamline planning and decision-making processes.

Project investment decision based on VIKOR interval intuitionistic fuzzy set

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caichuan Wang ◽  
Jiajun Li
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Project Investment ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Model

The decision on the investment project is to analyze the feasibility and rationality of the project plan from multiple angles. However, due to the limitations of the actual project investment decision-making, this paper proposes a group decision making method based multifunctional intuitively fuzzy VIKOR interval sets. Firstly, according to the established investment decision-making model, the first round of preliminary candidate project schemes is selected. According to the definition of interval intuitionistic fuzzy sets and the traditional VIKOR method, established the research method of this article, and the project investment decision-making model based on VIKOR interval intuitionistic fuzzy sets is established. Finally, the project schemes are sorted according to the closeness degree of schemes. The results show that when sorting each candidate by Qi value, A4 >  A3 >  A2 >  A1 can be obtained. Because Q4 = 0, Q3 = 0.31, the condition q3-q4 >  0.25 is satisfied. It is concluded that the method can not only meet the needs of actual decision-making, but also has strong operability and practicability. The research results have reference value and guiding significance for project investment decision-making, and can promote the sustainable development of the project.

scholarly journals Optimization of Tourism Real Estate Development Project Based on Option Premium Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Donglei Ying
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Case Analysis ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
The Real ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Real Estate Project ◽  
Option Model

Compared with that of traditional housing real estate, the development of tourism real estate is time-consuming, complex, and irreversible. It is hard to guide investment decision-making on tourism real estate with the conventional discount cash flow (DCF) method. This paper aims to demonstrate that the real option method can improve and optimize the investment decision-making on tourism real estate. Through case analysis, the real option model, i.e., the classic American real option model, and binary tree value distribution model were adopted to analyze the factors affecting the real option of tourism real estate, optimize the development sequence of tourism real estate project, and demonstrate the phased development value of tourism real state, thereby enhancing the development value of tourism real estate projects. The case analysis proves that tourism real estate investment is fully consistent with real option in the uncertain spatiotemporal attributes: uncertainty, irreversibility, and timeliness. Therefore, tourism real estate project carries obvious features of real option. The decision-making by the real option model is much more scientific and superior than that by the conventional DCF method. Since the application of real option theory has been emphasizing housing real estate over tourism real estate, the research results enrich the theory on real option-based investment decision-making for real estate and expand the application scope of real option.

Improving Investment Decision Making by Expanding Key Knowledge with Real Option Tools

2003 ◽  
Vol 12 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 345-368
Author(s):  
Francisco Augusto Alcaraz García ◽  
Markku Heikkilä
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decision Making
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