Improving multi step-ahead model prediction using multiple neural networks combination through forward selection (FS) technique

Author(s):  
Zainal Ahmad ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Syamsul Rizal Abd Syukor
2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zainal Ahmad ◽  
Nazira Anisa Rahim ◽  
Alireza Bahadori ◽  
Jie Zhang

Air quality monitoring and forecasting tools are necessary for the purpose of taking precautionary measures against air pollution, such as reducing the effect of a predicted air pollution peak on the surrounding population and ecosystem. In this study a single Feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (FANN) is shown to be able to predict the Air Pollution Index (API) with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) and coefficient determination, R2, of 0.1856 and 0.7950 respectively. However, due to the non-robust nature of single FANN, a selective combination of Multiple Neural Networks (MNN) is introduced using backward elimination and a forward selection method. The results show that both selective combination methods can improve the robustness and performance of the API prediction with the MSE and R2 of 0.1614 and 0.8210 respectively. This clearly shows that it is possible to reduce the number of networks combined in MNN for API prediction, without losses of any information in terms of the performance of the final API prediction model.


Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 1280
Author(s):  
Hyeonseok Lee ◽  
Sungchan Kim

Explaining the prediction of deep neural networks makes the networks more understandable and trusted, leading to their use in various mission critical tasks. Recent progress in the learning capability of networks has primarily been due to the enormous number of model parameters, so that it is usually hard to interpret their operations, as opposed to classical white-box models. For this purpose, generating saliency maps is a popular approach to identify the important input features used for the model prediction. Existing explanation methods typically only use the output of the last convolution layer of the model to generate a saliency map, lacking the information included in intermediate layers. Thus, the corresponding explanations are coarse and result in limited accuracy. Although the accuracy can be improved by iteratively developing a saliency map, this is too time-consuming and is thus impractical. To address these problems, we proposed a novel approach to explain the model prediction by developing an attentive surrogate network using the knowledge distillation. The surrogate network aims to generate a fine-grained saliency map corresponding to the model prediction using meaningful regional information presented over all network layers. Experiments demonstrated that the saliency maps are the result of spatially attentive features learned from the distillation. Thus, they are useful for fine-grained classification tasks. Moreover, the proposed method runs at the rate of 24.3 frames per second, which is much faster than the existing methods by orders of magnitude.


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