A Causal Bayesian Network Model for Resolving Complex Wicked Problems

Author(s):  
Daniel T. Semwayo ◽  
Ritesh Ajoodha
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 4046-4053
Author(s):  
Sujee Lee ◽  
Sijie Wang ◽  
Philip A. Bain ◽  
Christine Baker ◽  
Tammy Kundinger ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Kristian Herland ◽  
Heikki Hämmäinen ◽  
Pekka Kekolahti

This study comprises an information security risk assessment of smartphone use in Finland using Bayesian networks. The primary research method is a knowledge-based approach to build a causal Bayesian network model of information security risks and consequences. The risks, consequences, probabilities and impacts are identified from domain experts in a 2-stage interview process with 8 experts as well as from existing research and statistics. This information is then used to construct a Bayesian network model which lends itself to different use cases such as sensitivity and scenario analysis. The identified risks’probabilities follow a long tail wherein the most probable risks include unintentional data disclosure, failures of device or network, shoulder surfing or eavesdropping and loss or theft of device. Experts believe that almost 50% of users share more information to other parties through their smartphones than they acknowledge or would be willing to share. This study contains several implications for consumers as well as indicates a clear need for increasing security awareness among smartphone users.  


2021 ◽  
pp. 125075
Author(s):  
Javad Roostaei ◽  
Sarah Colley ◽  
Riley Mulhern ◽  
Andrew A. May ◽  
Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson

Author(s):  
Keyu Qin ◽  
Haijun Huang ◽  
Jingya Liu ◽  
Liwen Yan ◽  
Yanxia Liu ◽  
...  

Islands are one of the most sensitive interfaces between global changes and land and sea dynamic effects, with high sensitivity and low stability. Therefore, under the dynamic coupling effect of human activities and frequent natural disasters, the vulnerability of the ecological environment of islands shows the characteristics of complexity and diversity. For the protection of island ecosystems, a system for the assessment of island ecosystems and studies on the mechanism of island ecological vulnerability are highly crucial. In this study, the North and South Changshan Islands of China were selected as the study area. Considering various impact factors of island ecological vulnerability, the geographical information systems (GIS) spatial analysis, field surveys, data sampling were used to evaluate island ecological vulnerability. The Bayesian network model was used to explore the impact mechanism of ecological vulnerability. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability of the North Changshan Island is higher than that of the South Changshan Island. Among all the indicators, the proportion of net primary productivity (NPP) and the steep slope has the strongest correlation with ecological vulnerability. This study can be used as references in the relevant departments to formulate management policies and promote the sustainable development of islands and their surrounding waters


IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Denis Reilly ◽  
Mark Taylor ◽  
Paul Fergus ◽  
Carl Chalmers ◽  
Steven Thompson

Author(s):  
Jiye Shao ◽  
Rixin Wang ◽  
Jingbo Gao ◽  
Minqiang Xu

The rotor is one of the most core components of the rotating machinery and its working states directly influence the working states of the whole rotating machinery. There exists much uncertainty in the field of fault diagnosis in the rotor system. This paper analyses the familiar faults of the rotor system and the corresponding faulty symptoms, then establishes the rotor’s Bayesian network model based on above information. A fault diagnosis system based on the Bayesian network model is developed. Using this model, the conditional probability of the fault happening is computed when the observation of the rotor is presented. Thus, the fault reason can be determined by these probabilities. The diagnosis system developed is used to diagnose the actual three faults of the rotor of the rotating machinery and the results prove the efficiency of the method proposed.


2015 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 236-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Koch ◽  
F. Ayello ◽  
V. Khare ◽  
N. Sridhar ◽  
A. Moosavi

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