A Method for Anomaly Prediction in Power Consumption using Long Short-Term Memory and Negative Selection

Energy consumption prediction is a popular research field in computational intelligence. However, it is difficult for general machine learning models to handle complex time series data such as building energy consumption data, and the results are often unsatisfactory. To address this difficulty, a hybrid prediction model based on modal decomposition was proposed in this paper. For data preprocessing, the variational mode decomposition (VMD) technique was used to used to decompose the original sequence into more robust subsequences. In the feature selection, the maximum relevance minimum redundancy (mRMR) algorithm was chosen to analyse the correlation between each component and the individual features while eliminating the redundancy between individual features. In the forecasting module, the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model was used to predict power consumption. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, three categories of contrast methods were applied: 1) Comparing the hybrid model to a single predictive model, 2) Comparing the hybrid model with the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) to the hybrid model with the LSTM and 3) Comparing the hybrid model using mRMR and the hybrid model using mutual information maximization (MIM). The experimental results on the measured data of an office building in Qingdao show that the proposed hybrid model can improve the prediction accuracy and has better robustness compared to VMD-MIM-LSTM. In the three control groups mentioned above, the R2 value of the hybrid model improved by 10, 3 and 3%, respectively, the values of the mean absolute error (MAE) decreased by 48.9, 41.4 and 35.6%, respectively, and the root mean square error (RMSE) decreased by 54.7, 35.5 and 34.1%, respectively.

Download Full-text

CL-Net: ConvLSTM-Based Hybrid Architecture for Batteries’ State of Health and Power Consumption Forecasting

Mathematics ◽

10.3390/math9243326 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (24) ◽

pp. 3326

Author(s):

Noman Khan ◽

Ijaz Ul Haq ◽

Fath U Min Ullah ◽

Samee Ullah Khan ◽

Mi Young Lee

Keyword(s):

Power Consumption ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Mean Squared Error ◽

Renewable Energy Sources ◽

The State ◽

Hybrid Architecture ◽

State Of Health ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Memory ◽

Long Short Term Memory

Traditional power generating technologies rely on fossil fuels, which contribute to worldwide environmental issues such as global warming and climate change. As a result, renewable energy sources (RESs) are used for power generation where battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are widely used to store electrical energy for backup, match power consumption and generation during peak hours, and promote energy efficiency in a pollution-free environment. Accurate battery state of health (SOH) prediction is critical because it plays a key role in ensuring battery safety, lowering maintenance costs, and reducing BESS inconsistencies. The precise power consumption forecasting is critical for preventing power shortage and oversupply, and the complicated physicochemical features of batteries dilapidation cannot be directly acquired. Therefore, in this paper, a novel hybrid architecture called ‘CL-Net’ based on convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) and long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed for multi-step SOH and power consumption forecasting. First, battery SOH and power consumption-related raw data are collected and passed through a preprocessing step for data cleansing. Second, the processed data are fed into ConvLSTM layers, which extract spatiotemporal features and form their encoded maps. Third, LSTM layers are used to decode the encoded features and pass them to fully connected layers for final multi-step forecasting. Finally, a comprehensive ablation study is conducted on several combinations of sequential learning models using three different time series datasets, i.e., national aeronautics and space administration (NASA) battery, individual household electric power consumption (IHEPC), and domestic energy management system (DEMS). The proposed CL-Net architecture reduces root mean squared error (RMSE) up to 0.13 and 0.0052 on the NASA battery and IHEPC datasets, respectively, compared to the state-of-the-arts. These experimental results show that the proposed architecture can provide robust and accurate SOH and power consumption forecasting compared to the state-of-the-art.

Download Full-text