Fuzzy Probability Method-Based Risk Assessment of Engineering Project

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhangjun Liu ◽  
Min Xiong ◽  
Hongrui Ding
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Probability Method ◽  
Fuzzy Probability ◽  
Engineering Project

Fuzzy Probability Method-Based Risk Assessment of International Engineering Project

2011 ◽  
Vol 368-373 ◽  
pp. 3180-3183
Author(s):  
Zhang Jun Liu ◽  
Ya Kong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Probability Method ◽  
Fuzzy Probability ◽  
Engineering Project ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
Assessment Index System ◽  
Weighted Values ◽  
Hierarchy Process

In the present paper, the fuzzy probability method is applied to assess the risk of international engineering project. Firstly, According to the risk from the whole cycle of international engineering project, The influential factors of the project bidding risk assessment are analyzed. The risk of international engineering project is divided into four parts, such as national risk, industrial risk, involved parties risk and project’s risk, and an assessment index system of international project risk is constructed. Secondly, based on the fuzzy probability method, a new model of the risk assessment for international engineering project is developed. In order to assess index weighted value scientifically, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is introduced into the fuzzy weighted values. Finally, the validity and rationality of the risk evaluation for international engineering project is verified through the risk instance of a project.

The Synthetical Evaluation of Tunnel Design Considering its Impact on Environment Based on Fuzzy Probability Method

2014 ◽  
Vol 501-504 ◽  
pp. 1727-1731
Author(s):  
Zong Yang Li ◽  
Yu Han Feng ◽  
Zong Liang Li
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Probability Method ◽  
Construction Process ◽  
Fuzzy Probability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Tunnel Design ◽  
Synthetical Evaluation ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Depended on the fact that so many plans for tunnel design laid much emphasis on its construction process and its short-term cost while ignored the increasing importance of environment now, this article puts forward a synthetical method contains analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics to evaluate plans for tunnel design with certain indexes including the volume of earth works, carbon emissions, energy consumption and consumption of materials, all of which were taken from the main procedures of the tunnel constrution. In the synthetical evaluation process, the performance on environment of a construction plan was graded into four levels, after the probabilities of four indexes may have on each level was obtained, often by investigation or experience, the final scores of the designs could be calculated with the fuzzy probability method. Further, the designs could be compared.

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