Fuzzy Probability Method-Based Risk Assessment of International Engineering Project

2011 ◽  
Vol 368-373 ◽  
pp. 3180-3183
Author(s):  
Zhang Jun Liu ◽  
Ya Kong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Probability Method ◽  
Fuzzy Probability ◽  
Engineering Project ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
Assessment Index System ◽  
Weighted Values ◽  
Hierarchy Process

In the present paper, the fuzzy probability method is applied to assess the risk of international engineering project. Firstly, According to the risk from the whole cycle of international engineering project, The influential factors of the project bidding risk assessment are analyzed. The risk of international engineering project is divided into four parts, such as national risk, industrial risk, involved parties risk and project’s risk, and an assessment index system of international project risk is constructed. Secondly, based on the fuzzy probability method, a new model of the risk assessment for international engineering project is developed. In order to assess index weighted value scientifically, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is introduced into the fuzzy weighted values. Finally, the validity and rationality of the risk evaluation for international engineering project is verified through the risk instance of a project.

The Application of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation in Risk Assessment of Incremental Launching Bridge

2012 ◽  
Vol 204-208 ◽  
pp. 2028-2033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhong Chu Tian ◽  
Lei Yang ◽  
Tian Yong Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation Model ◽  
Assessment Index System ◽  
Hierarchy Process

The risk factors of continuous incremental launching bridge during construction stage are specialized. The risk in incremental launching stage is analyzed and identified. A risk assessment index system is built. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is developed. The results obtained from the risk assessment model verifies the validity and practicality of the developed method by the combination of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics theory. Moderate risk assessment results are developed to provide references for incremental launching construction method.

scholarly journals Health Risk Assessment Indicators for the Left-Behind Elderly in Rural China: A Delphi Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruzhen Luo ◽  
Chunmei Zhang ◽  
Yanhui Liu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Risk ◽  
Health Risk Assessment ◽  
Delphi Study ◽  
Index System ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Assessment Index System

In China, many young and middle-aged rural residents move to urban areas each year. The rural elderly are left behind. The number of the rural left-behind elderly is increasing with urbanization, but it is unclear which indicators can be used to assess their health condition. The health risk assessment index system was developed to improve the health level of the rural left-behind elderly. A two-round web-based Delphi process was used to organize the recommendations from fifteen Chinese experts in geriatrics, health management, social psychology who participated in this study. Meaningfulness, importance, modifiability, and comprehensive value of the health risk assessment indicators in the index system were evaluated. The effective recovery rates of the two-round Delphi were 86.67% and 92.31%, respectively. The judgement coefficient and the authority coefficient were 0.87 and 0.82, respectively. The expert familiarity was 0.76. Ultimately, the health risk assessment index system for the rural left-behind elderly consisted of five first-level indicators, thirteen second-level indicators, and sixty-six third-level indicators. The final indicators can be used to evaluate the health of the rural left-behind elderly and provide the basis for additional health risk interventions.

Elementary Analysis on Construction of Assessment Index System of Cleaner Production of Cheese Dyeing Enterprises

2012 ◽  
Vol 268-270 ◽  
pp. 2031-2034
Author(s):  
Zheng Li ◽  
Ding Gui Luo
Keyword(s):  
Delphi Method ◽  
Index System ◽  
Cleaner Production ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
Elementary Analysis ◽  
Assessment Index System ◽  
Standard Value ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Different Levels

The concrete assessment index of cheese dyeing enterprises’ cleaner production is filtered out by the classic Delphi method (Delphi) of expert evaluation. According to the characteristic of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP),we have identified the different levels. Finally, assessment index system was established and the weight of each index and standard value were also determined. The cleaner production level can be evaluated eventually more intuitively. So it can provide the technical support and guidance for cleaner production assessment of Cheese Dyeing Enterprises and realize a sustainable development of this kind of enterprises.

Assessment Reasearch about Agricultural Water Level

2011 ◽  
Vol 71-78 ◽  
pp. 2479-2482
Author(s):  
Ling Hua Wang ◽  
Rui Lian Wang ◽  
Pan Hua Ning
Keyword(s):  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Agricultural Water ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
System Utilization ◽  
Assessment Index System ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Water Assessment

According to characteristics about the agricultural water, agricultural water level assessment index system was structured, and Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to determine the importance of each hierarchy in the system. The fuzzy scheme optimum method which was adopted to assess the agriculture system utilization water level. So the fuzzy problems about how to use mathematic method to analyse and deal with the agricultural water assessment were solved to a certain extent. The final result of the example indicated that fuzzy comprehension assessment method could reflect utilization water characteristic in different areas and also showed that the method is correct and practical.

Analytical model for assessing collapse risk during mountain tunnel construction

2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 326-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo-Hua Zhang ◽  
Yu-Yong Jiao ◽  
Li-Biao Chen ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Shu-Cai Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Index System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Tunnel Construction ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
Assessment Index System ◽  
Geological Prediction ◽  
Tunnel Collapse ◽  
Mountain Tunnel

Risk management for safety in mountain tunnel construction is of great significance. However, existing research lags behind engineering applications. In this paper, the risk of mountain tunnel collapse is used as an example to illustrate a new assessment method based on case-based reasoning, advanced geological prediction, and rough set theory. First, the risk surroundings and risk factors involved in tunnel collapse are integrated and summarized, and a risk assessment index system is established for tunnel collapse. At the same time, because the dynamic response parameters obtained by the advanced geological prediction usually indicate a typical geological structure, sensitive response parameters are introduced in the assessment index system. Advanced risk assessment can be performed for tunnel sections at a certain distance ahead of the tunnel face. Second, the major risk surroundings and the advanced geological prediction results are analyzed for the tunnel under assessment. Cases with similar attribute characteristics are selected via comparison with previous cases. Attribute reduction and calculation of weights are subsequently performed for the risk surroundings and risk factors of similar cases based on the attribute significance theory of rough sets. Finally, index screening and objective weights are applied in the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. The results of this paper can be used to improve the theoretical level and reliability of risk assessment in tunnel safety and serve as a reference for tunnel construction.

Application of the Evidence Theory in the Safety Evaluation of Tower Cranes

2012 ◽  
Vol 446-449 ◽  
pp. 2162-2167
Author(s):  
Su Ping Huang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Index System ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Evidence Theory ◽  
Safety Evaluation ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Assessment Index ◽  
Assessment Index System ◽  
Improved Algorithm

The safety management of tower cranes is a systematic engineering. Focused on the complexity and uncertainty of the safety evaluation of tower cranes, D-S evidence theory is applied to evaluate the the safety conditions of tower cranes in service, the safety risk assessment index system of tower cranes is built and the specific and improved algorithm of the evidence theory is given. through example calculation, this method is proved is feasible, effective and applicable in the safety evaluation of tower cranes.

The Synthetical Evaluation of Tunnel Design Considering its Impact on Environment Based on Fuzzy Probability Method

2014 ◽  
Vol 501-504 ◽  
pp. 1727-1731
Author(s):  
Zong Yang Li ◽  
Yu Han Feng ◽  
Zong Liang Li
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Probability Method ◽  
Construction Process ◽  
Fuzzy Probability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Tunnel Design ◽  
Synthetical Evaluation ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Depended on the fact that so many plans for tunnel design laid much emphasis on its construction process and its short-term cost while ignored the increasing importance of environment now, this article puts forward a synthetical method contains analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics to evaluate plans for tunnel design with certain indexes including the volume of earth works, carbon emissions, energy consumption and consumption of materials, all of which were taken from the main procedures of the tunnel constrution. In the synthetical evaluation process, the performance on environment of a construction plan was graded into four levels, after the probabilities of four indexes may have on each level was obtained, often by investigation or experience, the final scores of the designs could be calculated with the fuzzy probability method. Further, the designs could be compared.

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