Machine learning based meta-models for sensorless thermal load prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Riegel ◽  
Przemyslaw Jakub Gromala ◽  
Bongtae Han ◽  
Sven Rzepka
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Thermal Load ◽  
Load Prediction

A Nonlinear Autoregressive With Exogenous Inputs Artificial Neural Network Model for Building Thermal Load Prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 142 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Byeongho Yu ◽  
Dongsu Kim ◽  
Heejin Cho ◽  
Pedro Mago
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Nonlinear System ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Thermal Load ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

Abstract Thermal load prediction is a key part of energy system management and control in buildings, and its accuracy plays a critical role to improve building energy performance and efficiency. Regarding thermal load prediction, various types of prediction model have been considered and studied, such as physics-based, statistical, and machine learning models. Physical models can be accurate but require extended lead time for model development. Statistical models are relatively simple to develop and require less computation time, but they may not provide accurate results for complex energy systems with intricate nonlinear dynamic behaviors. This study proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) model, one of the prevalent machine learning methods to predict building thermal load, combining with the concept of nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX). NARX-ANN prediction model is distinguished from typical ANN models because the NARX concept can address nonlinear system behaviors effectively based on its recurrent architectures and time indexing features. To examine the suitability and validity of NARX-ANN model for building thermal load prediction, a case study is carried out using the field data of an academic campus building at Mississippi State University (MSU). Results show that the proposed NARX-ANN model can provide an accurate and robust prediction performance and effectively address nonlinear system behaviors in the prediction.

scholarly journals Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 263 ◽  
pp. 114683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Wang ◽  
Tianzhen Hong ◽  
Mary Ann Piette
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Thermal Load ◽  
Load Prediction

A Non-Linear Auto-Regressive With Exogenous Inputs (NARX) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model for Building Thermal Load Prediction

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byeongho Yu ◽  
Dongsu Kim ◽  
Heejin Cho ◽  
Pedro Mago
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Nonlinear System ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Thermal Load ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Abstract Thermal load prediction is a key part of energy system management and control in buildings, and its accuracy plays a critical role to improve and maintain building energy performance and efficiency. To address this issue, various types of prediction model have been considered and studied, such as physics-based, statistical, and machine learning models. Physical models can be accurate but require extended lead time for model development. Statistical models are relatively simple to develop and require less computation time than other models, but they may not provide accurate results for complex energy systems with an intricate nonlinear dynamic behavior. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, one of the prevalent machine learning methods to predict building thermal load, combining with the concept of Non-linear Auto-Regression with Exogenous inputs (NARX). NARX-ANN prediction model is distinguished from typical ANN models due to the fact that the NARX concept can address nonlinear system behaviors effectively based on recurrent architectures and time indexing features. To examine the suitability and validity of NARX-ANN model for building thermal load prediction, a case study is carried out using field data of an academic campus building at Mississippi State University. Results show that the proposed NARX-ANN model can provide an accurate prediction performance and effectively address nonlinear system behaviors in the prediction.

scholarly journals Performance improvement of wastewater treatment processes by application of machine learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 82 (12) ◽  
pp. 2671-2680
Author(s):  
O. Icke ◽  
D. M. van Es ◽  
M. F. de Koning ◽  
J. J. G. Wuister ◽  
J. Ng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Wastewater Treatment ◽  
Predictive Control ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Network Modelling ◽  
Quality Requirements ◽  
Effluent Quality ◽  
Treatment Processes ◽  
Advanced Analytics

Abstract Improving wastewater treatment processes is becoming increasingly important, due to more stringent effluent quality requirements, the need to reduce energy consumption and chemical dosing. This can be achieved by applying artificial intelligence. Machine learning is implemented in two domains: (1) predictive control and (2) advanced analytics. This is currently being piloted at the integrated validation plant of PUB, Singapore's National Water Agency. (1) Primarily, predictive control is applied for optimised nutrient removal. This is obtained by application of a self-learning feedforward algorithm, which uses load prediction and machine learning, fine–tuned with feedback on ammonium effluent. Operational results with predictive control show that the load prediction has an accuracy of ≈88%. It is also shown that an up to ≈15% reduction of aeration amount is achieved compared to conventional control. It is proven that this load prediction-based control leads to stable operation and meeting effluent quality requirements as an autopilot system. (2) Additionally, advanced analytics are being developed for operational support. This is obtained by application of quantile regression neural network modelling for anomaly detection. Preliminary results illustrate the ability to autodetect process and instrument anomalies. These can be used as early warnings to deliver data-driven operational support to process operators.

scholarly journals Data-Driven Machine-Learning Model in District Heating System for Heat Load Prediction: A Comparison Study

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fisnik Dalipi ◽  
Sule Yildirim Yayilgan ◽  
Alemayehu Gebremedhin
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Heat Load ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Heating System ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
District Heating System

We present our data-driven supervised machine-learning (ML) model to predict heat load for buildings in a district heating system (DHS). Even though ML has been used as an approach to heat load prediction in literature, it is hard to select an approach that will qualify as a solution for our case as existing solutions are quite problem specific. For that reason, we compared and evaluated three ML algorithms within a framework on operational data from a DH system in order to generate the required prediction model. The algorithms examined are Support Vector Regression (SVR), Partial Least Square (PLS), and random forest (RF). We use the data collected from buildings at several locations for a period of 29 weeks. Concerning the accuracy of predicting the heat load, we evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms using mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and correlation coefficient. In order to determine which algorithm had the best accuracy, we conducted performance comparison among these ML algorithms. The comparison of the algorithms indicates that, for DH heat load prediction, SVR method presented in this paper is the most efficient one out of the three also compared to other methods found in the literature.

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