Thermal Load Prediction of Communal District Heating Systems by Applying Data-Driven Machine Learning Methods

We present our data-driven supervised machine-learning (ML) model to predict heat load for buildings in a district heating system (DHS). Even though ML has been used as an approach to heat load prediction in literature, it is hard to select an approach that will qualify as a solution for our case as existing solutions are quite problem specific. For that reason, we compared and evaluated three ML algorithms within a framework on operational data from a DH system in order to generate the required prediction model. The algorithms examined are Support Vector Regression (SVR), Partial Least Square (PLS), and random forest (RF). We use the data collected from buildings at several locations for a period of 29 weeks. Concerning the accuracy of predicting the heat load, we evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms using mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and correlation coefficient. In order to determine which algorithm had the best accuracy, we conducted performance comparison among these ML algorithms. The comparison of the algorithms indicates that, for DH heat load prediction, SVR method presented in this paper is the most efficient one out of the three also compared to other methods found in the literature.

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Predicting rice blast disease: machine learning versus process-based models

BMC Bioinformatics ◽

10.1186/s12859-019-3065-1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

David F. Nettleton ◽

Dimitrios Katsantonis ◽

Argyris Kalaitzidis ◽

Natasa Sarafijanovic-Djukic ◽

Pau Puigdollers ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Rice Blast ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Rice Blast Disease ◽

Blast Disease ◽

Data Driven ◽

Learning Methods ◽

Machine Learning Methods ◽

Plant Disease Management ◽

Process Based Models

Abstract Background In this study, we compared four models for predicting rice blast disease, two operational process-based models (Yoshino and Water Accounting Rice Model (WARM)) and two approaches based on machine learning algorithms (M5Rules and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN)), the former inducing a rule-based model and the latter building a neural network. In situ telemetry is important to obtain quality in-field data for predictive models and this was a key aspect of the RICE-GUARD project on which this study is based. According to the authors, this is the first time process-based and machine learning modelling approaches for supporting plant disease management are compared. Results Results clearly showed that the models succeeded in providing a warning of rice blast onset and presence, thus representing suitable solutions for preventive remedial actions targeting the mitigation of yield losses and the reduction of fungicide use. All methods gave significant “signals” during the “early warning” period, with a similar level of performance. M5Rules and WARM gave the maximum average normalized scores of 0.80 and 0.77, respectively, whereas Yoshino gave the best score for one site (Kalochori 2015). The best average values of r and r2 and %MAE (Mean Absolute Error) for the machine learning models were 0.70, 0.50 and 0.75, respectively and for the process-based models the corresponding values were 0.59, 0.40 and 0.82. Thus it has been found that the ML models are competitive with the process-based models. This result has relevant implications for the operational use of the models, since most of the available studies are limited to the analysis of the relationship between the model outputs and the incidence of rice blast. Results also showed that machine learning methods approximated the performances of two process-based models used for years in operational contexts. Conclusions Process-based and data-driven models can be used to provide early warnings to anticipate rice blast and detect its presence, thus supporting fungicide applications. Data-driven models derived from machine learning methods are a viable alternative to process-based approaches and – in cases when training datasets are available – offer a potentially greater adaptability to new contexts.

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