We present predictive performance models of two of the petascale applications, S3D and GTC, from the DOE Office of Science workload. We outline the development of these models and demonstrate their validation on an Opteron/Infiniband cluster and the pre-upgrade ORNL Jaguar system (Cray XT3/XT4). Given the high accuracy of the full application models, we predict the performance of the Jaguar system after the upgrade of its nodes, and subsequently compare this to the actual performance of the upgraded system. We then analyze the performance of the system based on the models to quantify bottlenecks and potential optimizations. Finally, the models are used to quantify the benefits of alternative node allocation strategies, and to quantify performance degradation resulting from inter-process competition for network resources.
