scholarly journals Testing for the Presence of a Random Walk in Series with Structural Breaks

2001 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Busetti ◽  
Andrew Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
In Series

ON DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN RANDOM WALK AND CHANGE IN THE MEAN ALTERNATIVES

2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 411-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Aue ◽  
Lajos Horváth ◽  
Marie Hušková ◽  
Shiqing Ling
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Partial Sums ◽  
Test Statistics ◽  
Test Procedures ◽  
Change In The Mean ◽  
German Stock ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Almost All

We study test procedures that detect structural breaks in underlying data sequences. In particular, we wish to discriminate between different reasons for these changes, such as (1) shifting means, (2) random walk behavior, and (3) constant means but innovations switching from stationary to difference stationary behavior. Almost all procedures presently available in the literature are simultaneously sensitive to all three types of alternatives.The test statistics under investigation are based on functionals of the partial sums of observations. These cumulative sum–type (CUSUM-type) statistics have limit distributions if the mean remains constant and the errors satisfy the central limit theorem but tend to infinity in the case when any of the alternatives (1), (2), or (3) holds. On removing the effect of the shifting mean, however, divergence of the test statistics will only occur under the random walk behavior, which in turn enables statisticians not only to detect structural breaks but also to specify their causes.The results are underlined by a simulation study and an application to returns of the German stock index DAX.

scholarly journals The nexus between tourism demand and output per capita with the relative importance of trade openness and financial development

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Ronald Ravinesh Kumar ◽  
Stanislav Ivanov ◽  
Nanthakumar Loganathan
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
In Series ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This article revisits the tourism-growth nexus in Malaysia using time series quarterly data over the period 1975–2013. The authors examine the impact of tourism using two separate indicators – tourism receipts per capita and visitor arrivals per capita. Using the augmented Solow production function and the autoregressive distributed lag bounds procedure, they also incorporate trade openness and financial development and account for structural breaks in series. The results show the evidence of cointegration between the variables. Assessing the long-run results using both indicators of tourism demand, it is noted that the elasticity coefficient of tourism is 0.13 and 0.10 when considering visitor arrivals and tourism receipts (in per capita terms), respectively. Notably, the impact of tourism demand is marginally higher with visitor arrivals. The elasticity of trade openness is 0.19, that of financial development is 0.09 and that of capital share is 0.15. In the short run, the coefficient of tourism is marginally negative, and for financial development and trade openness, it is 0.01 and 0.18, respectively. The Granger causality tests show bidirectional causation between tourism and output per capita, financial development and tourism and trade openness and tourism demand, duly indicating the feedback or mutually reinforcing impact between the variables and providing evidence that tourism is central to enhancing the key sectors and the overall income level.

scholarly journals The Behavior of Indonesian Stock Market: Structural Breaks and Nonlinearity

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 209
Author(s):  
Rahmat Heru Setianto ◽  
Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Test Procedure ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Nonlinear Behaviour ◽  
Standard Linear

This study empirically examines the behaviour of Indonesian stock market under the efficient market hypothesis framework by emphasizing on the random walk behaviour and nonlinearity over the period of April 1983 - December 2010. In the first step, the standard linear unit root test, namely the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Phillip-Perron (PP) test and Kwiatkowski-Philllips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test identify the random walk behaviour in the indices. In order to take account the possible breaks in the index series Zivot and Adrews (1992) one break and Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two breaks unit root test are employed to observe whether the presence of breaks in the data series will prevent the stocks from randomly pricing or vice versa. In the third step, we employ Harvey et al. (2008) test to examine the presence of nonlinear behaviour in Indonesian stock indices. The evidence of nonlinear behaviour in the indices, motivate us to use nonlinear unit root test procedure recently developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003) and Kruse (2010). In general, the results from standard linear unit root test, Zivot and Adrews (ZA) test and Lumsdaine and Papell (LP) test provide evidence that Jakarta Composite Index characterized by a unit root. In addition, structural breaks identified by ZA and LP test are corresponded to the events of financial market liberalization and financial crisis. The nonlinear unit root test procedure fail to rejects the null hypothesis of unit root for all indices, suggesting that Jakarta Composite Index characterized by random walk process supporting the theory of efficient market hypothesis.     

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