CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

The motivation behind this study is to experimentally look at the connection between capital market improvement and monetary development in Nigeria. The examination investigated the Central Bank of Nigeria quarterly information from 1981Q1 to 2017Q4 with the E-sees programming bundle (variant 9.0). The Vector Auto Regression (VAR) procedure was utilized to investigate the information, while theory testing depended on the Block Exogeneity Wald test. The predetermined models included stationarity tests, diminished structure VAR gauge, and primary examination. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test demonstrates that the examination factors are fixed at first contrast or I(1). The VAR establishes plot corresponding to unit circle demonstrates that our predetermined diminished structure VAR models are steady. The Lagrange Multiplier (LM) symptomatic tests demonstrate that our predetermined VAR models are effectively indicated. The p-esteem shows that market capitalization proportion is critical in clarifying varieties in financial development (p = 0.0205). Notwithstanding, the worth of stock proportion and banking framework capitalization proportion is not huge in deciding the Real Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria. All in all, capital market advancement in Nigeria is worked with by vigorous market capitalization. Nonetheless, it is restricted by diminishing volume of stock and lessening banking framework capitalization. It is suggested that the monetary area ought to take on forceful capital market drives and vigorous monetary development approaches to support financial development in an arising economy.

ANALISIS SAHAM BERDASARKAN CAPM PADA JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEKS (JII) PERIODE 2014-2019

Abstrak: Analisis Saham Berdasarkan CAPM Pada Jakarta Islamic Indeks (JII) Periode 2014-2019 Investor dalam memilih sekuritas atau surat berharga yang akan diinvestasikan dapat menggunakan pendekatan Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Tujuan penelitian ini untuk menganalisis saham-saham JII yang layak untuk diinvestasikan berdasarkan CAPM periode 2014-2019. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah uji regresi sederhana, uji asumsi klasik dan uji stasioneritas data. Hasil Penelitian ini bahwa pada periode Januari 2014 sampai Desember 2019 menghasilkan 7 dari 12 sampel memiliki nilai β>1, yaitu saham ADRO, ASII, BSDE, INDF, KLBF, SMGR, dan WIKA. Kemudian, 9 saham dari 12 sampel yang menghasilkan nilai excess return positif (undervalue), yaitu ADRO, ASII, BSDE, ICBP, INDF, KLBF, TLKM, UNVR, dan WIKA. Selanjutnya nilai signifikansi kedua belas saham tersebut < 0,05. Artinya ada hubungan antara risiko dan return saham kedua belas saham tersebut. Kriteria-kriteria yang digunakan untuk menilai saham dengan menggunakan model penelitian Yohantin (2009), Sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa dalam penelitian ini terdapat enam saham yang layak untuk diinvestasikan, yaitu ADRO, ASII, BSDE, INDF, KLBF, dan WIKA.Kata kunci: Analisis Saham, Capital Asset Pricing ModelAbstract: Stock Analysis Based on CAPM in the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) for the 2014-2019 period. Investors in choosing securities or securities to be invested can use the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) approach. The purpose of this study is to analyze the JII shares that are eligible to be invested based on the 2014-2019 CAPM. Data analysis techniques used in this study are simple regression tests, classic assumption tests and data stationarity tests. The results of this study that in the period January 2014 to December 2019 produced 7 of the 12 samples having a value of β> 1, namely ADRO, ASII, BSDE, INDF, KLBF, SMGR, dan WIKA. Then, 9 stocks from 12 samples that produce positive excess return value (undervalued), namely ADRO, ASII, BSDE, ICBP, INDF, KLBF, TLKM, UNVR, dan WIKA. Furthermore, the significance value of the twelve shares is <0.05. This means that there is a relationship between risk and stock returns to the twelve shares. The criteria are used to assess stocks using the research model Yohantin (2009), so it can be concluded that in this study there are six stocks that are worth investing in, namely ADRO, ASII, BSDE, INDF, KLBF, dan WIKA.Keywords: Stock Analysis, Capital Asset Pricing Model

Testing for stationarity with covariates: more powerful tests with non-normal errors

Previous studies suggested that the power of unit root and stationarity tests can be improved by augmenting a testing regression model with stationary covariates. However, one practical problem arises since such procedures require finding the variables that satisfy certain conditions. The difficulty of finding satisfactory covariate has hindered using such desired tests. In this paper, we suggest using non-normal errors to construct stationary covariates in testing for stationarity. We do not need to look for outside variables, but we utilize the distributional information embodied in a time series of interest. The terms driven from the information on non-normal errors can be employed as valid stationary covariates. For this, we adopt the framework of stationarity tests of Jansson (Jansson, M. 2004. “Stationarity Testing with Covariates.” Econometric Theory 20: 56–94). We show that the tests can achieve much-improved power. We then present the response surface function estimates to facilitate computing the critical values and the corresponding p-values. We investigate the nature of shocks to the US macro-economic series using the updated Nelson–Plosser data set through our new testing procedure. We find stronger evidence of non-stationarity than their univariate counterparts that do not use the covariates.

Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa: An Analysis Based on Panel Data

The objective of this paper is to study the long-term sustainability of fiscal policies in CEMAC, following the pioneering approach of Hamilton and Flavin [10]. Over the period from 1992 to 2012, first and second generation panel stationarity tests suggest that total public expenditures, total revenues, the primary budget balance and public debt are stationary. As a result, fiscal policies are sustainable in the long run within the area. There is a unidirectional causality between government revenues and expenditures. Decisions to increase expenditures are made on the basis of the availability of revenues.

Tax buoyancy in Jordan: Meeting the challenge after COVID-19

Public finance in Jordan has always been poor. Indeed, not a single Jordanian government has managed to have a surplus in its budget. In addition, and within the context of the already high, and rising public debt, COVID-19 will not only exacerbate this problem even further. This is why the main purpose of this paper is to estimate tax buoyancy in Jordan. This is a timely issue to examine because once the Jordanian economy goes back to its normal growth rates (after COVID-19), the status of the fiscal deficit (and public debt) will depend, to a large extent, on tax buoyancy. To estimate the impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on tax revenues (tax buoyancy), the paper uses annual data (1992 2019) and time series techniques including stationarity tests, Johnsen cointegration test, and vector error correction model (VECM). Based on the empirical estimations, one can state that tax buoyancy in Jordan is less than one. This indicates that once the Jordanian economy goes back to its pre-COVID-19 growth rates, the increase in total tax revenues will not reciprocate the increases in GDP. This is unfortunate, given the already high existing public debt level. However, what is encouraging is the fact that sales tax and corporate tax are buoyant. The only way to increase tax buoyancy (and total tax to GDP ratio) is to make the sources of tax revenues more diversified and more progressive.

EFFICIENCY OF GOVERNMENT EDUCATIONAL POLICY: IMPACT OF MIGRATION

Introduction. According to the document "Transforming our world: Agenda for sustainable development until 2030" adopted at the UN Summit on Sustainable Development, Ukraine has committed to 169 tasks under 17 goals by 2030. One of the goals of sustainable development is to provide equal experience in quality education, including lifelong learning. The aim of the study is determining the impact of migration processes on the level of higher education coverage in Ukraine. Research methods. To achieve the paper’s aim, the authors applied the following methods and tools: to assess stationarity - tests of Dickie Fuller (information criterion Akaike) and Phillips Perron (criterion Bartlett Kernel), to assess the integration of data - Johansen test, to identify factors influencing the study on the result - ECM-modeling. Results. The obtained results give grounds to conclude that a 5% level of statistical significance of the growth of public spending on education, GDP per capita and remittances from abroad lead to an increase in the level of higher education in Ukraine. Thus, the hypothesis of a statistically significant impact of migration processes and education expenditures on the level of higher education coverage is confirmed. In this case, the authors highlight that Ukrainian government should develop adjusting policies to improve the effectiveness of public policy on migration management and increase the share of education spending in the country. However, it should be noted that the population growth rate negatively affects the level of higher education coverage. Perspectives. Further research is needed to determine the strength of the impact of average wages, unemployment, environmental conditions, social progress and others factors on migration processes as determinants of improving the education in the country and achieving sustainable development goals.

EVALUATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS AND EURO AND USD EXCHANGE RATES: THE CASE OF TURKEY

The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship between Turkey's Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums and the USD and Euro exchange rates. In order to measure this relationship, time series analyses were used for the period January 3rd, 2005 to December 31st, 2019. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were performed for stationarity tests. Then, Johansen cointegration analysis was used to determine long-term relationships. The vector error correction model was used to determine short-term relationships, and the Granger causality test was used to determine causality directions. CDS was used as the dependent variable, and the USD and EURO exchange rates were used as the independent variables. As a result of the study, it was found that the USD rate and EURO rate variables have a long-term relationship with CDS. CDS increases by 38.8% when the USD rate increases by 1%, and CDS increases by 24.2% when the Euro rate increases by 1%. When we look at the coefficient values, it is seen that the effect of the USD rate on CDS is higher compared to that of the Euro rate. In addition, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between the variables.

The behavior of Brazilian companies shares return under social responsibility

Several scientific studies seek to establish a relationship between the adoption of corporate social responsibility practices and financial and/or economic performance of companies. There are no definitive answers to this question. Compared performance of ISE – Índice de Sustentabilidade Empresarial (Index of Corporate Sustainability) and Ibovespa index, both from Brazilian stock market, is often used to characterize the influence of good business practices in this area. This work investigated this question in an innovative prism. Instead of using directly that index returns series, we constructed a portfolio composed only of companies that remained in ISE portfolio over the five years from 2012 to 2016, and compared their performance with a portfolio of an equal number of companies, taken among the most liquid ones that continuously participated in the Ibovespa portfolio in same period. For this purpose, we used Mann-Whitney averages comparison test, return series stationarity tests – Augumented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron - and Engle-Granger cointegration test. The results showed higher average returns for portfolio of socially responsible companies, indicating a growth of their returns compared to portfolio of conventional companies, and showed, however, a tendency to balance in long term run.