Cyclical variation in US government spending multipliers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yifei Lyu ◽  
Eul Noh

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Adina Popescu ◽  
Ippei Shibata




2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antje Berndt ◽  
Hanno Lustig ◽  
Şevin Yeltekin

We develop a method for identifying and quantifying the fiscal channels that help finance government spending shocks. We define fiscal shocks as surprises in defense spending and show that they are more precisely identified when defense stock data are used in addition to aggregate macroeconomic data. Our results show that in the postwar period, about 9 percent of the US government's unanticipated spending needs were financed by a reduction in the market value of debt and more than 70 percent by an increase in primary surpluses. Additionally, we find that long-term debt is more effective at absorbing fiscal risk than short-term debt. (JEL E62, H56, and H63)



2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-98
Author(s):  
Gisele Mah

The United State of America has been experiencing high debt to GDP ratio of more than 100% and these Public debts are detrimental. The main purpose of this study was to examine the shocks of the variables on others in the USA economy by using quarterly data. The variance decomposition and the Generalised Impulse Response Function techniques were employed to analyse the data. The result revealed that high variation of shocks in real federal debt is explained by their own innovations in the short run, by CPI followed by real federal debt its self. In the long run, this leads to CPI and real government spending. The GIRF reveals that in the short run, real federal debt responds negatively to shocks from CPI, real federal interest payment and real federal government tax receipts and positively to real federal debt and real government spending. In medium term, only real federal government tax receipts are negative while the others are positive. In the long run, the response are all positive to shock from the independent variables. The results lead to the recommendation that the US government should focus on real federal debt in the short run. In the medium term, US government should focus on increasing real government spending and reducing only real federal government tax receipts. In the long run the target should real be federal debt, CPI, real federal interest payment, real government spending and real federal government tax receipts.



2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Coyne ◽  
Courtney Michaluk ◽  
Rachel Reese

Purpose – US military contracting has been plagued by systematic corruption, fraud, and waste during both times of peace and war. These outcomes result from the inherent features of the US military sector which incentivize unproductive entrepreneurship. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Drawing on the insights of Baumol (1990) as their base theoretical framework, the authors explore how the industrial organization of the US military sector creates incentives for unproductive entrepreneurship. Evidence from US government reports regarding US efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq is provided to illustrate the central claims. Findings – The military sector is characterized by an entangled network of government bureaus and private firms whose existence is dependent on continued government spending. These realities, coupled with a dysfunctional procurement processes, reward unproductive behaviors during peacetime. During wartime these incentives are intensified, as significant emergency resources are injected into an already defective contracting system. The recent experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq illustrate these dynamics. Originality/value – The authors make three main contributions. First, contrary to common treatments by economists, much military spending fails to meet the definition of a public good. Second, waste, fraud, and abuse in military contracting is a result of rules and the incentives those rules create. Third, the only way to change the situation is to change the overarching rules governing the people operating in the military sector.



Nature ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Reardon
Keyword(s):  




Nature ◽  
2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren Morello ◽  
Sara Reardon ◽  
Sarah Zhang
Keyword(s):  


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