scholarly journals How Does The US Government Finance Fiscal Shocks?

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antje Berndt ◽  
Hanno Lustig ◽  
Şevin Yeltekin
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Defense Spending ◽  
Government Finance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Risk ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

We develop a method for identifying and quantifying the fiscal channels that help finance government spending shocks. We define fiscal shocks as surprises in defense spending and show that they are more precisely identified when defense stock data are used in addition to aggregate macroeconomic data. Our results show that in the postwar period, about 9 percent of the US government's unanticipated spending needs were financed by a reduction in the market value of debt and more than 70 percent by an increase in primary surpluses. Additionally, we find that long-term debt is more effective at absorbing fiscal risk than short-term debt. (JEL E62, H56, and H63)

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Synchronization Between G3 Countries

2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amado Peirό
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Us ◽  
Production Prices ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThis paper studies the existence of a world business cycle by examining quarterly and annual comovements in production, prices and interest rates in the three main world economies: Germany, Japan and the US. In accordance with earlier studies, contemporaneous relationships clearly dominate short-term dynamics. The evidence indicates the existence of strong comovements in prices and long-term interest rates, and, to a lesser degree, in GDP and short-term interest rates. They are, however, rather unstable over time.

scholarly journals The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables On the Saudi Stock Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 126-152
Author(s):  
Amani Mohammed Aldukhail
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Time Deposits

This study aimed at exploring the effect of macroeconomic variables on the activity of the Saudi stock market for the period 1997-2017. Macroeconomic variables were: GDP, interest rate on time deposits, inflation rate. The variables of the Saudi stock market activity were: stock price index, market value of shares, value of traded shares. To achieve this objective, the researcher used the ARDL model for the self-regression of the lagged distributed time gaps. The most important results of the research are: The effect of macroeconomic variables on the performance indicators in the Saudi stock market is not important in the short term and is statistically significant in the long term according to the proposed models, so investors in this market can rely on macroeconomic variables in Predict the movement of the stock market and predict long-term profits and losses.

scholarly journals Contrarian and Momentum Strategies in the Indian Capital Market

2002 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjay Sehgal ◽  
I Balakrishnan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Indian Market ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Momentum Strategy ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
One Year

The study attempts to evaluate if there are any systematic patterns in stock returns for the Indian market. The empirical findings reveal that there is a reversal in long-term returns, once the short-term momentum effect has been controlled by maintaining a one year gap between portfolio formation period and the portfolio holding period. A contrarian strategy based on long-term past returns provides moderately positive returns. Further, there is a continuation in short-term returns and a momentum strategy based on it provides significantly positive payoffs. The results in general are in conformity with those for developed capital markets such as the US.

The Effect of Covid-19, Rupiah Exchange Rate, and Inflation on the Indonesia Sharia Stock Index during the Covid-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 313-336
Author(s):  
Achmad Agus Priyono ◽  
Ari Kartiko
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

Purpose of this study is to clarify the effect of the number of daily cases reported to have contracted the Covid-19 virus, the exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar and inflation on the movement of the Indonesian Sharia stock index (ISSI) during the Pandemic Covid 19 in the short term and long term. Data analysis methods that used is analysis Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) using Eviews software 10. The data collected is daily time series data starting from March 2, 2020 to May 31, 2021 so that the number of samples collected obtained as many as 283 samples . The results of the study stated that the addition of the daily number of reported cases of contracting the Covid-19 virus has a negative impact on The Indonesian Sharia Stock Market Index (ISSI) during the Covid-19 pandemic, so that encourage the weakening of the Stock Index both in the long and long term short. Likewise, the weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar will caused the fall of the sharia index during the Covid 19 pandemic, both in the long term and long and short term. However, the study found no effect inflation on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) during the Covid19 pandemic, good long term and short term

Terrorism and Violence

2019 ◽  
pp. 138-180
Author(s):  
Douglas Allen
Keyword(s):  
Complex Analysis ◽  
General Analysis ◽  
The Other ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Absolute Truth ◽  
Relative Truth ◽  
Central Concern ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Status

Ever since 9/11 in the US and 26/11 in India, terrorism has been a central concern. Gandhi is generally assumed to be of little value when confronting terrorism today. At best, he is irrelevant; at worst, he is complicit and contributes to the crisis since he opposes necessary violent responses. This essay argues that while Gandhi does not have all of the answers for dealing with terrorism today, he provides us with a complex analysis essential for understanding and responding to the multidimensional structural crisis. After analyzing the nature and meaning of terrorism, we focus on the following topics: Gandhi’s interactions with terrorists; his means-ends analysis and his short-term and long-term preventative approaches to terrorism; his analysis of absolute truth and relative truth in approaching terrorism; and his general analysis of the status of “the other” in transforming our relations with violent, terrorizing, and terrorized others.

Brazil faces stagnation risk in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Business Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject The risk that the Brazilian economy will stagnate, rather than recover, this year. Significance The recent passage of legislation freezing government spending and the ambitious pension reform currently under discussion in Congress are the flagship policies of the government of President Michel Temer. Both seek to defuse Brazil’s fiscal time bomb in the long term. However, they offer little support to immediate expansion in an economy that not only has been in recession since the second quarter of 2014 but is also locked in a low-growth trap will few apparent short-term escape routes. Impacts Popular dissatisfaction may trigger a new wave of demonstrations, further weakening the government. As long as the fiscal crisis persists, the government’s ability to stimulate the economy will be limited. Political risk will be a crucial factor in business investment decisions in Brazil.

Djibouti looks further east with new port deal

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Container Terminal ◽  
Far East ◽  
Gulf Of Aden ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Port Management ◽  
The Us ◽  
Strategic Location ◽  
Almost All

Subject Djibouti port management Significance Djibouti on February 22 unilaterally terminated Dubai Ports World (DP World)’s contract to manage Djibouti’s main economic asset, the Doraleh Container Terminal (DCT), the port that handles almost all of land-locked Ethiopia’s foreign trade. The port’s seizure brings a bitter, six-year legal and commercial dispute between the Emirati-owned DP World and Djibouti’s President Ismael Omar Guelleh to a climactic end, reconfiguring alliances in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea. Singapore-based Pacific International Lines (PIL) will now manage the port, as Djibouti eyes a long-term future aligned towards the Far East. Impacts The de facto nationalisation of DCT will not significantly disrupt Ethiopia’s economy or transit trade in the short term. Despite US unease over Chinese maritime ambitions, Western diplomats will be wary of involvement in the Djibouti-UAE dispute. Given Djibouti's strategic location, the US will not downsize its military base absent a wider change in its regional strategic priorities. PIL will aim to boost transhipments via Djibouti, potentially bolstering French and Chinese links within the Ocean Alliance consortium.

scholarly journals The Analysis on Sino-Us Development under Trump Administration

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Tianrun Feng
Keyword(s):  
Diplomatic Relations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Peaceful Rise ◽  
The Us ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Thucydides Trap ◽  
Diplomatic Relationship ◽  
Trump Administration

<em>The Sino-US relationship was normalized in 1979, and 1st January 2017 marks the 38th anniversary of formal diplomatic relations. Since the US-China diplomatic relationship established, they have been on through zigzags. Two governments seek cooperation in various areas, enhancing close relationships and maintaining a smooth and positive momentum of development, and have achieved a historic progress. With China’s peaceful rise and the US’s eastward shift, the relations are in face of dramatic structural contradictions and the dander of “Thucydides Trap”. Meanwhile, as the core national interests conflict intensified, a new round of strategic suspicion has been stimulated. The “Trump Administration” gives new challenges and opportunities to both countries in economy and security areas, and both government are in face of the co-exist situation of “certainty” and “uncertainty”. In the short term, two governments share both conflicts and cooperation, and in the long term, relations are forging ahead in the difficulties.</em>

Nexus Between Debt Financing and Market Value Moderated by Firm Size: Panel Data Evidence from India

2021 ◽  
pp. 097226292110526
Author(s):  
Rajesh Desai
Keyword(s):  
Firm Size ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Using Data

This study examines the effect of debt financing on market value of firm and evaluates the moderating effect of firm size on this relationship. Tobin’s Q and market-to-book value ratio are used as proxy for market value whereas long-term as well as short-term debt ratios are considered to indicate debt financing. Using data of 164 capital goods sector companies for 10 years (from 2010 to 2019), panel least square (PLS) regression with fixed and random effects (RE) model has been applied for data analysis. Based on findings, the study reports significant negative impact of borrowings (both long-term and short-term) on market value of selected companies. Further, the outcome of study confirms that firm size moderates the relationship between debt financing and firm value. The magnitude and significance of the effect of debt are stronger for small firms as compared to medium and large firms. Present verdicts will assist managers in designing capital structure policies by considering its impact on market value according to firm-size.

Commitment to Physical Fitness: Commercial Influences on Long-Term Healthy Consumer Behaviors

1998 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 68-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cathy Goodwin ◽  
Ronald Paul Hill
Keyword(s):  
Physical Fitness ◽  
Specific Weight ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Healthy Behaviors ◽  
Initial Decision ◽  
Health Clubs ◽  
The Us ◽  
Psychology Literature ◽  
Depth Interviews

Adoption of healthy behaviors by consumers is an important policy goal in both the US and Canada. Physical fitness has been identified as one such goal, yet few studies have explored the motivation for healthy individuals to become long-term, committed exercisers. In this study, in-depth interviews were conducted with women who were members of health clubs. Committed exercisers appeared to have undergone an experience of self-initiated change described in the clinical-psychology literature. They also reported changes in self-concept and social networks. On the other hand, intermittent exercisers focused only on short-term goals. Implications for social marketing programs include the need to (a) focus on reinforcement of a new identity rather than initial decision-making, and (b) disassociate exercise from specific weight-loss goals.

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