Impact of climate change on Asiatic black bear ( Ursus thibetnaus ) and its autumn diet in the northern highlands of Pakistan

Abstract Global temperatures are predicted to rise from between 1.4 to 5.8°C by 21st century, which could result in a 20 to 30% extinction of species. The negative impacts of climate change on the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition. Range shifts and range reduction in the forested landscapes will dramatically affect the distribution of forest dwelling species, including the Galliformes (ground birds). Three Galliformes (e.g., Lophophorus impejanus, Pucrasia macrolopha and Tragopan melanocephalus) are indicator species of the environment and currently distributed in NHP. For this study, we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to simulate the current and future (in 2050 and 2070) distributions of the species using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 (moderate carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (peak carbon emission scenario). Our results indicated that (i) all the three species would be negatively affected by the climate change in 2050 and in 2070. (ii) Under all three climate scenarios, species distribution was predicted to both reduce and shift towards higher altitudes. (iii) Across the provinces in the NHP, the species were predicted to lose over one quarter in 2050 and one-third by 2070 of the current suitable habitat. (iv) The maximum area of climate refugia was projected between the altitudinal range of 2000 m to 4000 m and predicted to shift towards higher altitudes primarily >3000 m in the future. The proposed implications such as establishment and upgradation of the protected areas, ban on hunting, timber mafia and temporary settlements of the local people in the forested landscapes should be under special consideration to mitigate the impact of climate change.

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Long-term effects of cultural filtering on megafauna species distributions across China

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1909896116 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 117 (1) ◽

pp. 486-493 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Shuqing N. Teng ◽

Chi Xu ◽

Licheng Teng ◽

Jens-Christian Svenning

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Cultural Evolution ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Dominant Role ◽

Brown Bear ◽

Black Bear ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Asiatic Black Bear ◽

Sociocultural Processes ◽

The Impact

Human activities currently play a dominant role in shaping and eroding Earth’s biodiversity, but the historical dynamics leading to this situation are poorly understood and contentious. Importantly, these dynamics are often studied and discussed without an emphasis on cultural evolution, despite its potential importance for past and present biodiversity dynamics. Here, we investigate whether cultural filtering, defined as the impact of cultural evolution on species presence, has driven the range dynamics of five historically widespread megafauna taxa (Asiatic elephant, rhinoceroses, tiger, Asiatic black bear, and brown bear) across China over the past 2 millennia. Data on megafauna and sociocultural history were compiled from Chinese administrative records. While faunal dynamics in China are often linked to climate change at these time scales, our results reveal cultural filtering as the dominant driver of range contractions in all five taxa. This finding suggests that the millennia-long spread of agricultural land and agricultural intensification, often accompanied by expansion of the Han culture, has been responsible for the extirpation of these megafauna species from much of China. Our results suggest that cultural filtering is important for understanding society’s role in the assembly of contemporary communities from historical regional species pools. Our study provides direct evidence that cultural evolution since ancient times has overshadowed climate change in shaping broadscale megafauna biodiversity patterns, reflecting the strong and increasing importance of sociocultural processes in the biosphere.

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