Abstract
Free roaming dogs (FRD) in cities represent an increasing problem. Authorities need numbers of FRDs to evaluate policies implemented and to monitor the dog population. We estimated the number of FRD in Ushuaia city, Argentina, using a photographic capture-recapture methodology. We estimated an abundance index, the power to detect changes in the index, and modeled factors that may explain the spatial distribution of FRD and their welfare status. During three surveys, covering 72 transects along streets (9.9% of the street layout of Ushuaia), we recorded 539 different FRDs. A model with individual heterogeneity in capture-recapture probability gave 12,797 FRDs (95% CI 10,979 − 15,323), reflecting a dog:human relation of 1:6, higher than the relation recommended by the WHO. The abundance index was similar between surveys (8.13 ± 1.36, 8.38 ± 1.46 and 9.55 ± 1.28 dogs/km). The difference needed to detect changes in the index is about twice the standard error of estimates. The best model explaining dogs’ abundance included only geographical location, although two neighbourhoods with 9 transects stand out with 181 different FRDs identified. Together with the good overall dogs’ welfare status, modeling suggests that the behavior of owners is the main driver for the presence of FRDs. We recommend the use of photographic capture-recapture methodologies instead of simple index estimation, due to the small additional effort required and the improved accuracy and precision obtained. We also recommend a permanent systematic design for future surveys, increase the number of survey occasions, and improve the survey process.