DATA REVISIONS AND FORECASTING ACCURACY: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS BASED ON PRELIMINARY AND REVISED NATIONAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES*

1973 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank T. Denton ◽  
Ernest H. Oksanen
Keyword(s):  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
National Accounting ◽  
Data Revisions ◽  
Accounting Estimates

scholarly journals China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: A Study in Historical National Accounting, 980–1850

2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 955-1000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Broadberry ◽  
Hanhui Guan ◽  
David Daokui Li
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Medieval Period ◽  
National Accounting ◽  
Recent Advances ◽  
Accounting Estimates ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Great Divergence ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
European Economies

As a result of recent advances in historical national accounting, estimates of GDP per capita are now available for a number of European economies back to the medieval period, including Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, and Spain. The approach has also been extended to Asian economies, including India and Japan. So far, however, China, which has been at the center of the Great Divergence debate, has been absent from this approach. This article adds China to the picture, showing that the Great Divergence began earlier than originally suggested by the California School, but later than implied by older Eurocentric writers.

scholarly journals Selection of an Estimation Window in the Presence of Data Revisions and Recent Structural Breaks

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jari Hännikäinen
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Selection Methods ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Data Revisions ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Window Selection ◽  
Selection Of

AbstractIn this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of a set of widely used window selection methods in the presence of data revisions and recent structural breaks. Our Monte Carlo and empirical results for U.S. real GDP and inflation show that the expanding window estimator often yields the most accurate forecasts after a recent break. It performs well regardless of whether the revisions are news or noise, or whether we forecast first-release or final values. We find that the differences in the forecasting accuracy are large in practice, especially when we forecast inflation after the break of the early 1980s.

An econometric analysis of factors affecting the stock price of Russian companies

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 912-924
Author(s):  
M.Yu. Malkina ◽  
◽  
E.K. Yakovleva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Factors Affecting

An econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1133-1153
Author(s):  
A.T. Kozinova
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Retail Trade ◽  
Economic Instability ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Subject. The article deals with econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with macroeconomic indicators, like real disposable household income, consumer prices, etc. Objectives. The purpose is to create effective models to analyze the retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, taking into account the existence of periods of economic instability. Methods. I apply correlation and regression methods to analyze statistics. To quantify changes in the retail turnover of Russia during the periods of economic instability, I use dummy variables. Results. The Russia’s retail trade turnover index had a reverse and moderate relationship with the consumer price index, direct and strong relationship with the indices of real disposable household income and imports, direct relationship with the manufacturing index. I offer statistically significant regression models of Russia’s retail turnover with the said macroeconomic indicators. Conclusions. The main advantage of models of retail turnover that are built using a large number of observations is a greater number of simultaneously considered factors. The quantitative assessment of retail turnover elasticity by consumer prices confirms the need for inflation targeting by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The higher elasticity of retail turnover in manufacturing as compared with the imports denotes the importance of import substitution policy.

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