Issues of the Risk-Based Approach

The purpose of the article was to analyze the problems currently standing in the way of more effective application of the risk-based approach methodology in the field of technogenic safety management. Methods — theoretical, inductive method, analysis of own experience, adopted normative legal acts, other publications. The main results of the work include the following: • despite the broadest use of the concept of “risk” in the field of technogenic safety management, there is no generally accepted interpretation of it to date; • often the evaluative concept of “risk” is mistakenly used instead of objectively existing risk factors; • quantifiably technogenic risk should be characterized by indicators of numerical nature, having vector objects, since two components should be indicated for the complete assignment of the indicator: the probability and the amount of damage; • experience shows that the methods of assessing the probabilistic component of risk indicators recommended by regulatory documents on the analysis and quantification of technogenic risk are accompanied by a very large uncertainty, therefore, instead of the traditional point statement, a more adequate method of assessment is the use of an interval approach that takes into account and allows quantifying this uncertainty; • the analysis showed that the so-called frequency approach, which is most often used to assess the probabilistic component of technogenic risk indicators, is used improperly, has no basis, since, as a rule, the phenomenon of statistical stability is not observed in the object area of the technosphere, there are no general aggregates; • in society and even among specialists, by now there is no understanding of the need to express all three components of damage from an accident (explosion/fire) in monetary terms, without which it is impossible to estimate and express the amount of total damage: — in conclusion, four key problems that hinder the more effective use of the risk-based approach methodology in the field of technogenic safety management are listed; — imperfection of the existing methodological base for the analysis and quantitative assessment of technogenic risk; — the problem of staffing in the field of technogenic risk management; — lack of national criteria for acceptable risk; — complete disregard of the problem of uncertainty of the results of the COR, the lack of methodological support for the procedure of analysis and quantification of this uncertainty. Conclusion — the efforts of the entire community of specialists-researchers, legislators, practitioners engaged in various aspects of the problem of technosphere safety management are necessary to solve the tasks specified in the article.

On the Threats and Challenges of Modern Russia

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Extreme Weather Events as Risk Factors for Oil and Gas Facilities

The article discusses issues related to the influence of changes in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme meteorological events on the objects of the oil and gas industry. Climate indices recommended by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) are used as characteristics of the extreme events. The possibilities of using climatic indices for identifying physical risks applicable to the objects of the oil and gas industry are demonstrated. The features of the spatiotemporal variability of climatic indices are considered and the geographical regions of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are identified as the most and least vulnerable to changes in the extreme characteristics of the climate. The results obtained can be used both at the level of individual enterprises and facilities of the oil and gas industry, and in the development of regulations common for the industry.

The Main Threats and Challenges for Russia in the First Half of the XXI Century and Possible Areas of Work to Mitigate their Consequences

This article analyzes threats and challenges for the Russian Federation in the first half of the XXI century and identifies possible directions for improving security in emergency situations based on the use of new approaches in organizational, legal, scientific and technical support of measures, management bodies and civil defense forces and the unified state system of emergency prevention and response (RSChS).

Development of a Risk Classifier as a Stage of Successful Risk Management

The article gives the analysis of approaches to risk classification at industrial enterprise. Based on the findings, conclusions about advantages and disadvantages were drawn up, as well as the possibilities for its application at nuclear enterprises are formulated. The authors propose an original personalized approach to risk classifier development, which takes into account the nuclear industry specifics. An example of an algorithm for risk classifier development based on above-mentioned approach for the enterprise of the Rosatom State Corporation is given. This example can be used in various industries and may be of interest to risk management researchers and specialists.

Safety and Risk of Operating Facilities: Rapid Assessment Methodology

Two methods for methodology uses “risk indices” (dam condition index I), as well as “fuzzy logic methods” to combine the original quantitative and qualitative (expert) information on the operated dam condition. The approach applied is in accordance with the recommendations of IEC 31010: 2019. Risk Management — Risk Assessment Techniques. Deterministic assessments of the condition in the form of “risk indices” were also used as input data in assessing the probability of the failure and in developing a probabilistic risk assessment methodology. The original database, as well as the damage assessment scale, modified in the course of the research, summarize the experience of surveys and examination of safety declarations of more than 180 hydraulic works in Russia. A description is given of the methods of initial assessment and digitization (quantification) of the condition index I, as well as combining the initial quantitative and qualitative (expert) information about various damages. The practical feasibility and the possibility of categorizing (with fuzzy boundaries) conditions and levels of damage to hydraulic structures are shown. With regard to various conditions and levels of damage, proposals are made for practical actions to ensure the safety of dams in the process of monitoring, inspection, development of a reconstruction project and its expertise. As a result of the research, the dependence of the probability of the failure pfailure on the average value of the Iср index has been established and the graph “pfailure – Iср” is presented, which is well described by the exponential and is convenient for practical application. The value of I ср is determined according to the data of visual and instrumental control of the dam condition of the as well as according to expert estimates. The methodology for creation the indicated graph is presented. The creation of this graph became possible on the basis of: statistical processing, proof of the “normality” of the distribution of the I indices and the estimation (according to the distribution functions constructed for each level of damage) the probability of the failure pfailure, as well as during the survey and examination of the dam project. Proposals are formulated for the practical application of the proposed methods for assessing the risk of operating dams, and the near-term prospect of research in the field of risk assessment and ensuring dam safety is formulated.

Improvement of Risk Management Process in Space Product Development Through its Continuous Integration

Relevance. Nowadays, enterprises not only have to constantly introduce new products, but also to reduce development time, reduce costs, and improve the variety and quality of their products. In the product development process, risk management is too often underutilized and relegated to the background compared to product development planning and monitoring tools. Moreover, the measurement of process performance of risk management within product development is not defined and does not allow for comparison with peers or support continuous process improvement.The purpose of the study is to provide a framework for improving the risk management process performance in space product development. So that risk managers have the proper tools to monitor and understand where resources and efforts should be directed to improve the process.Results. This article identifies how to represent risk in product development and how to measure its impact on the performance of the risk management process in product development. Through a survey of key players in the Russian space industry, the study identifies different practices and needs in risk management, product development and performance measurement of these processes.Methods. Theoretical research methods: analysis, synthesis, classification, comparison, abstraction, generalization, modeling. Empirical method — survey: questionnaire survey. The key contribution of this study (to limit the usual delays and cost overruns in the space industry) is to establish specific characteristics and methods that can serve as a reference practice and basis for the future development of a tool that will assist in the evaluation of space development projects.

About Enterprise Risk Management

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Mathematical Model of Generalized Assessment of the Rating of Similar Objects Based on Statistical Data from the Standpoint of Epidemiological Safety (on the Example of the Incidence of COVID-19 in the Regions of the Volga Federal District)

Th e article describes the construction of a generalized assessment of the incidence of COVID-19 in the regions of the Russian Federation. Th e mathematical model includes normalization of relative morbidity indicators, which allows comparing the incidence rate in diff erent regions and the degree of change in morbidity. Based on the developed scale of epidemiological safety and the risk of disease spread, the assessment of the level of disease and the spread of COVID-19 in the subjects of the Volga Federal District is carried out.The relevance of the study is due to the fact that a comparative analysis of the incidence of COVID-19 by region is currently one of the main conditions for identifying factors in the spread/localization of the disease, assessing the eff ectiveness of eff orts and developing a system of measures to counter the spread of the disease.

Sustainable Development Mechanisms as a Key Factor in the Development of Public-Private Partnerships

Th e article discusses practical aspects of sustainable development necessary for the introduction of public-private partnership in the work of the Institute in the Russian Federation. Th e author analyses the requirements of the fi nancier for a private partner in terms of sustainable develop-ment mechanisms in diff erent countries of the world. Th e requirements that currently exist in the methodology for calculating the economic effi ciency of public-private partnership projects in the Russian Federation are also analyzed. Th e article describes not only diff erences in effi ciency assessment mechanisms, but also proposes an author’s method of integrating the principles of sustainable development into fi nancial mechanisms for implementing public-private partnershipprojects. Th e author proposes to change the methodology for assessing the risks of public-private partnership projects, introduce into the Russian methodology for assessing the eff ectiveness of projects requirements not only on the need to substantiate the applied calculation mechanisms, but also on the development by a private partner of strategies for the sustainable development of the project, as well as a strategy for the sustainable development of the project region. Th e changes will qualitatively supplement the fi nancial settlement mechanisms that aff ect the implementation of all public-private partnership projects in the Russian Federation, including minimizing thefi nancial risks of the state partner.