Development of a hybrid AHP and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence for project risk assessment problem

In this paper, a new hybrid AHP and Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence is presented for solving the problem of choosing the best project among a list of available alternatives while uncertain risk factors are taken into account. The aim is to minimize overall risks. For this purpose, four groups of risk factors, including Properties, Operational and Technological, Financial, Strategic risk factors, are considered. Then using an L24 Taguchi method, several experiments with various dimensions have been designed and solved by the proposed algorithm. The outcomes are then analyzed using the Validating Index (VI), Reduced Risk Indicator (R.R.I%), and Solving time. The findings indicated that, compared to the classic AHP, the results of the proposed hybrid method were different in most cases due to uncertainty of risk factors. It was observed that the method could be safely used for selecting project problems in real industries.

Risk in Strategic Management

Although risk is an essential element of the business landscape and one of the more widely researched topics in business, there is noticeably less scholarship on strategic risk. Business risk literature tends to only delineate characteristics of risk that are operational rather than strategic in nature. The current operational risk paradigm focuses primarily on only two dimensions of risk: the probability of its occurrence and the severity of its outcomes. In contrast, literature in the natural and social sciences exhibits greater dimensionality in the risk lexicon, including temporal risk dimensions absent from academic business discussions. Additionally, descriptions of operational risk included minimal linkage to strategic outcomes that could constrain or enable resources, markets, or competition. When working with a multidimensional model of risk, one can adjustment the process of environmental scanning and risk assessment in ways that were potentially more measurable. Given the temporal dimensions of risk, risk management cannot always function proactively. In risk environments with short risk horizons, rapid risk acceleration, or limited risk reaction time, firms must utilize dynamic capabilities. The literature proposes multiple approaches to managing risk that are often focused on single challenges or solutions. By combining a strategic management focus with a multidimensional model of strategic risk, one can match risk management protocols to specific strategic challenges. Lastly, one of more powerful dimensions of risky events is their ability to differentially affect competitors, changing the basis of competition. Risk need not solely be viewed as defending against potential losses; many risky occurrences may represent new strategic opportunities.

Impact of corporate network position on strategic risk and company’s performance – evidence from Poland

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the links between a company’s position in a corporate network with its financial performance and strategic risk in the context of the largest Central European stock market. Design/methodology/approach This study integrates the theory of social network analysis (SNA) with corporate governance theory with a special focus on resource dependence theory. Using the framework of network social analysis, the authors use network measures of social capital and embeddedness. Findings The results of studying companies listed on the Polish stock exchange indicate that a company’s corporate network position has a significant negative impact on strategic risk while having no influence on its financial performance. The research also highlights the importance of a firm’s corporate governance model for both performance and strategic risk. Research limitations/implications The data collected, and SNA measures used made it possible to conduct a cross-sectional study. Compared to longitudinal studies, this type of study has a couple of disadvantages addressed in the paper. In the future, the dependencies observed in this study should be tested using longer-term data. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper integrating the corporate personal and capital networks to test risk and performance dependencies in the context of Poland’s corporate governance model. The findings and conclusions can also be applied to analyzing Central and Eastern Europe stock markets.

A New Hybrid AHP and Dempster—Shafer Theory of Evidence Method for Project Risk Assessment Problem

In this paper, a new hybrid AHP and Dempster—Shafer theory of evidence is presented for solving the problem of choosing the best project among a list of available alternatives while uncertain risk factors are taken into account. The aim is to minimize overall risks. For this purpose, a three-phase framework is proposed. In the first phase, quantitative research was conducted to identify the risk factors that can influence a project. Then, a hybrid PCA-agglomerative unsupervised machine learning algorithm is proposed to classify the projects in terms of Properties, Operational and Technological, Financial, and Strategic risk factors. In the third step, a hybrid AHP and Dempster—Shafer theory of evidence is presented to select the best alternative with the lowest level of overall risks. As a result, four groups of risk factors, including Properties, Operational and Technological, Financial, and Strategic risk factors, are considered. Afterward, using an L2^4 Taguchi method, several experiments with various dimensions have been designed which are then solved by the proposed algorithm. The outcomes are then analyzed using the Validating Index, Reduced Risk Indicator, and Solving Time. The findings indicated that, compared to classic AHP, the results of the proposed hybrid method were different in most cases due to uncertainty of risk factors. It was observed that the method could be safely used for selecting project problems in real industries.

Risk Analysis of Microfinance Conversion Based on ISO 31000 PT. Bank BRI Syariah. Tbk Aceh

Aceh government issued Aceh Qanun No. 11 of 2018 about Sharia Financial Institutions, which demands that all financial contracts in Aceh adhere to Sharia principles. This regulation has an impact on the Aceh region's financial business. PT Bank BRI Tbk Aceh has decided to conversion entire financing and funding portfolio to one of its sharia-compliant subsidiaries, PT Bank BRIsyariah Tbk. microfinance portfolio is bigger than other segments. By constructing a risk analysis based on ISO 31000, this study assesses the business risk associated with converting PT Bank BRIsyariah Tbk's microfinance segment in the Aceh region. The results indicate that twenty risks have been identified and evaluated. Risk can be classified into five broad categories: operational, reputational, strategic, credit, and compliance. The risk analysis results indicate that the risk is significant and requires immediate attention. Operational risk is associated with differences in data capacity, servers, the core banking system, and financing applications, whereas strategic risk is associated with differences in financial analysis, guarantee provisions, and regulations.

Towards an Understanding of Low-Income Individuals’ Financial Resiliency: Exploration of Risk Preferences, Personality Traits, and Savings Behavior

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has helped expose and exacerbate individuals’ and households’ financial vulnerability worldwide. Meanwhile, behavioral elements affecting low-income populations’ ability to save and become more financially resilient have yet to receive sufficient academic attention. This exploratory study aims at the beginning to help elucidate the determinants of low-income individuals’ real-life savings behavior by utilizing laboratory performance measures (to characterize participants’ risk preferences by using the Balloon Analog Risk Task – BART, in study 1), as well as self-report surveys (to characterize participants’ personality traits, in study 2). Combining results from both studies, latent personality traits (i.e., attitude towards risk, perseverance, distractibility, and state anxiety) are found to affect the risk preferences of low-income individuals (captured using a novel BART performance measure indicative of an individual’s strategic risk preference adaptation), which in turn impact their ability to successfully complete matched savings programs and, thus, their ability to save and enhance their financial resilience.

Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?

Elections define representative democracies but also produce spikes in physical mobility if voters need to travel to polling places. In this paper, we examine whether large-scale, in-person elections propagate the spread of COVID-19. We exploit a natural experiment from the Czech Republic, which biannually renews mandates in one-third of Senate constituencies that rotate according to the 1995 election law. We show that in the second and third weeks after the 2020 elections (held on October 9–10), new COVID-19 infections grew significantly faster in voting compared to non-voting constituencies. A temporarily related peak in hospital admissions and essentially no changes in test positivity rates suggest that the acceleration was not merely due to increased testing. The acceleration did not occur in the population above 65, consistently with strategic risk-avoidance by older voters. Our results have implications for postal voting reforms or postponing of large-scale, in-person (electoral) events during viral outbreaks.