Comparison of multifactor scoring systems and single serum markers for the early prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (11) ◽  
pp. 1895-1901 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Hua He ◽  
Yin Zhu ◽  
Yong Zhu ◽  
Qi Jin ◽  
Hong-Rong Xu ◽  
...  
2017 ◽  
Vol 112 ◽  
pp. S13
Author(s):  
Rachel Gray ◽  
Joaquin Cagliani ◽  
Peter C. Nauka ◽  
Benjamin Villacres ◽  
Tabia Santos ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 108 (Supplement_6) ◽  
Author(s):  
H Walker ◽  
J Melling ◽  
M Jones ◽  
C Melling

Abstract Introduction Predicting severity of acute pancreatitis enables optimization of care, reducing morbidity and length of stay. Modified adult scoring systems have not yet been able to adequately predict severity in children. This study supports the use of CRP in children as a superior biomarker of acute pancreatitis severity compared with the modified Glasgow Pancreas score. Method This was a retrospective study of children presenting with a first episode of acute pancreatitis from 2002 - 2020 in a single tertiary paediatric surgical centre. Serum markers including CRP at 48 hours of admission were analysed. Statistical analysis included Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) analysis for promising biomarkers, and these were compared to the modified Glasgow Pancreas Score. A severe episode was defined by development of local complications and/or organ support. An Area Under Curve (AUC) >0.90 was defined as an excellent predictor of severity. Results Data of 59 children were analysed, median age 13 years, 22 (37%) patients had a severe episode. ROC analysis demonstrated CRP as the best predictor of severity, giving an AUC of 0.92. Optimum cut off value for CRP was 107. 5mg/L (p < 0.0001), producing 91% sensitivity and 84% specificity. This was significantly superior to the modified Glasgow Pancreas score, which gave an AUC of 0.66 (p < 0.0424) producing 36% sensitivity and 100% specificity. Conclusions We have shown that a CRP >107.5 within 48 hours of admission can be used to predict severity of acute pancreatitis in children with greater accuracy than current scoring systems.


2012 ◽  
Vol 107 (4) ◽  
pp. 612-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L Bollen ◽  
Vikesh K Singh ◽  
Rie Maurer ◽  
Kathryn Repas ◽  
Hendrik W van Es ◽  
...  

Pancreatology ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. S54
Author(s):  
Horacio Rilo ◽  
Rachel Gray ◽  
Peter Nauka ◽  
Benjamin Villacres ◽  
Nibras Ahmed ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Ammer-Herrmenau ◽  
T. Asendorf ◽  
G. Beyer ◽  
S. M. Buchholz ◽  
S. Cameron ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disorder that causes a considerable economic health burden. While the overall mortality is low, around 20% of patients have a complicated course of disease resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. There is an emerging body of evidence that the microbiome exerts a crucial impact on the pathophysiology and course of AP. For several decades multiple clinical and laboratory parameters have been evaluated, and complex scoring systems were developed to predict the clinical course of AP upon admission. However, the majority of scoring systems are determined after several days and achieve a sensitivity around 70% for early prediction of severe AP. Thus, continued efforts are required to investigate reliable biomarkers for the early prediction of severity in order to guide early clinical management of AP patients. Methods We designed a multi-center, prospective clinical-translational study to test whether the orointestinal microbiome may serve as novel early predictor of the course, severity and outcome of patients with AP. We will recruit 400 AP patients and obtain buccal and rectal swabs within 72 h of admission to the hospital. Following DNA extraction, microbiome analysis will be performed using 3rd generation sequencing Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) for 16S rRNA and metagenomic sequencing. Alpha- and beta-diversity will be determined and correlated to the revised Atlanta classification and additional clinical outcome parameters such as the length of hospital stay, number and type of complications, number of interventions and 30-day mortality. Discussion If AP patients show a distinct orointestinal microbiome dependent on the severity and course of the disease, microbiome sequencing could rapidly be implemented in the early clinical management of AP patients in the future. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04777812


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