Monthly Variations of Global Wave Climate due to Global Warming

2015 ◽  
Vol 74 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zikra ◽  
Noriaki Hashimoto ◽  
Kodama Mitsuyasu ◽  
Kriyo Sambodho
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Wind Climate ◽  
Ocean Wave Climate

Over recent years, ocean wave climate change due to global warming has attracted a lot of attention not only coastal and offshore engineer but also stakeholders in the marine industry. There is a wide range of application in ocean environment that require information on ocean wave climate data, such as ships design, design of offshore platforms and coastal structures or naval industry. In this research, monthly variation in significant wave height is studied using MRI-AGCM3.2 wind climate data for 25 year period from 1979-2003. The 25 year significant wave height simulation derived from JMA/MRI-AGCM wind climate data. The JMA/MRI-AGCM climate data were input into WAM model. The results showed that the monthly variability of significant wave height in the Northern Hemisphere is greater than in the Southern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, most of the equatorial regions are in calm condition all year. 

Seasonally Variation of Significant Wave Height for 25 Year Period Based on JMA/MRI-AGCM3.2 Wind Climate Data

2017 ◽  
Vol 862 ◽  
pp. 67-71
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zikra ◽  
Noriaki Hashimoto ◽  
Kodama Mitsuyasu ◽  
Trika Pitana ◽  
Silvianita
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Wave Data ◽  
Wind Climate ◽  
Ocean Wave Climate

The global ocean wave climate has long been of interest to the ocean engineering community because of the need for accurate operational wave data for applications such as vessel design, design of offshore and coastal structures or naval operations. Recently, there has been a major interest in wave climate changes as a result of global warming. Therefore, studies on predicting the effect of global warming on ocean wave climate are required. The objectives of this study are to analyze the accuracy and variability of global significant wave height hindcast for the 25 year period 1979-2003. This study describes the 25 year global significant wave height simulation derived from the Japan Meteorology Agency/Meteorology Research Institute (JMA/MRI)-AGCM3.2 wind climate data. The wind climate data were input into ocean wave model WAM with a global grid of spacing 1o in latitude by 1o in longitude. In situ wind and wave data sets from National Data Buoy Center (NDBC)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) database were used to evaluate the hindcast accuracy. The validation showed good agreement both wind and waves data. The wave hindcast analysis show that the seasonal variability of significant wave height in the Northern Hemisphere is greater than in the Southern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, most of the equatorial regions are in calm condition all year.

scholarly journals Variations in Winter Ocean Wave Climate in the Japan Sea under the Global Warming Condition

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Taniguchi
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Japan Sea ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
The Japan Sea ◽  
Ocean Wave Climate ◽  
Daily Wave

Future variations in the ocean wave climate caused by global warming could affect various coastal issues. Using a third-generation wave model, this study produced projections of the ocean wave climate for winter around Japan, focusing on the Japan Sea side. Wave simulation forcing (sea surface wind) was generated through five different global warming experiments. More than half the future wave projections showed an increasing tendency of the climatological mean significant wave height during winter. However, the maximum significant wave height did not show any clear tendency in future variation. The top 1% of significant wave heights and mean wave periods showed apparent increases in frequencies of higher/longer waves in three out of the five future projections. Frequency distributions of significant wave height, mean wave period, mean wavelength and wave direction showed various future variations (reduction of small ocean waves, increasing frequency of waves from the west). There are large uncertainties in future variations of wave climate in the Japan Sea, but the high probability of variations in daily wave climate is recognized, based on the future wave projections. Variations in daily wave climate are important because they could affect the topography and environment of the coast through long-term repetitive actions.

Time Series Analysis of Significant Wave Height Data for Identification of Trends in the Ocean Wave Climate

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Vanem ◽  
Sam-Erik Walker
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Ocean Wave Climate

Reliable return period estimates of sea state parameters such as the significant wave height is of great importance in marine structural design and ocean engineering. Hence, time series of significant wave height have been extensively studied in recent years. However, with the possibility of an ongoing change in the global climate, this might influence the ocean wave climate as well and it would be of great interest to analyze long time series to see if any long-term trends can be detected. In this paper, long time series of significant wave height stemming from the ERA-40 reanalysis project, containing 6-hourly data over a period of more than 44 years are investigated with the purpose of identifying long term trends. Different time series analysis methods are employed, i.e. seasonal ARIMA, multiple linear regression, the Theil-Sen estimator and generalized additive models, and the results are discussed. These results are then compared to previous studies; in particular results are compared to a recent study where a spatio-temporal stochastic model was applied to the same data. However, in the current analysis, the spatial dimension has been reduced and spatial minima, mean and maxima have been analysed for temporal trends. Overall, increasing trends in the wave climate have been identified by most of the modelling approaches explored in the paper, although some of the trends are not statistically significant at the 95% level. Based on the results presented in this paper, it may be argued that there is evidence of a roughening trend in the recent ocean wave climate, and more detailed analyses of individual months and seasons indicate that these trends might be mostly due to trends during the winter months.

Modelling Long-Term Trends in Significant Wave Height and its Potential Impacts on Ship Structural Loads

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Vanem ◽  
Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Ocean Wave Climate ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents the results from a statistical model for significant wave height in space and time. In particular, various model alternatives were applied to extract long-term temporal trends towards the year 2100. Future projections of the North Atlantic ocean wave climate based on two of these alternatives are presented, i.e. an extrapolated linear trend and trends based on regression on atmospheric levels of CO2 and assuming future emission scenarios proposed by IPCC. It is further explored how such future trends can be related to the structural load calculations of ships. It will be demonstrated how the estimated future trends can be incorporated in joint environmental models to yield updated environmental contour lines that take possible changes in the ocean wave climate into account. In this way, the impact of climate change on the wave climate can be accounted for in stress and loads calculations and hence in the structural dimensioning of ships and offshore installations. The proposed approach is illustrated by an example showing the potential impact of the estimated long-term trends in the wave climate on the wave-induced structural loads of an oil tanker. Results indicate that the impact may be far from negligible, and that this may need to be considered in the future when performing loads calculations.

Uncertainties in Extreme Value Analysis of Wave Climate Data and Wave Climate Projections

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Vanem
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Significant Wave

The extreme values of climate data are of interest in design of marine structures and the return values of certain met-ocean parameters such as significant wave height is of particular importance. However, there are various ways of analyzing the extremes and estimating the required return values, which introduce additional uncertainties. These are investigated in this paper by applying different methods to particular data sets of significant wave height, corresponding to the historic climate and two future projections of the climate assuming different forcing scenarios. In this way, the uncertainty due to the extreme value analysis can also be compared to the uncertainty due to a changing climate. The different approaches that will be considered is the initial distribution approach, the block maxima approach, the peak over threshold (POT) approach and the average conditional exceedance rate method (ACER). Furthermore, the effect of different modelling choices within each of the approaches will be explored. Thus, a range of different return value estimates for the different data sets is obtained. This exercise reveals that the uncertainty due to the extreme value analysis method is notable and, as expected, the variability of the estimates increases for higher return periods. Moreover, even though the variability due to the extreme value analysis is greater than the climate variability, a shift towards higher extremes in a future wave climate can clearly be discerned in the particular datasets that have been analysed.

scholarly journals FUTURE CHANGES IN SPECTRAL WAVE CLIMATE AROUND JAPAN UNDER GLOBAL WARMING

2020 ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Tomoya Shimura ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Structure Design ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Wave Statistics ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Ocean Wave Climate ◽  
East Asia Region

Future projections of ocean wave climate related with global warming has been conducted for the assessment of climate change impacts on coastal disaster, beach morphology, and coastal structure design. In this study, we conduct the high-resolution future wave climate projection in the East Asia region and detail analysis on wave climate based on two-dimensional wave spectra in addition to conventional wave statistics (significant wave height). Future changes in wave height, period and direction can be discussed consistently owing to analysis on the mean wave spectra.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/FEYPZFRr5SQ

scholarly journals Reliability of Extreme Significant Wave Height Estimation from Satellite Altimetry and In Situ Measurements in the Coastal Zone

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 1039
Author(s):  
Ben Timmermans ◽  
Andrew G. P. Shaw ◽  
Christine Gommenginger
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
In Situ Measurements ◽  
Altimeter Data ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Significant Wave

Measurements of significant wave height from satellite altimeter missions are finding increasing application in investigations of wave climate, sea state variability and trends, in particular as the means to mitigate the general sparsity of in situ measurements. However, many questions remain over the suitability of altimeter data for the representation of extreme sea states and applications in the coastal zone. In this paper, the limitations of altimeter data to estimate coastal Hs extremes (<10 km from shore) are investigated using the European Space Agency Sea State Climate Change Initiative L2P altimeter data v1.1 product recently released. This Sea State CCI product provides near complete global coverage and a continuous record of 28 years. It is used here together with in situ data from moored wave buoys at six sites around the coast of the United States. The limitations of estimating extreme values based on satellite data are quantified and linked to several factors including the impact of data corruption nearshore, the influence of coastline morphology and local wave climate dynamics, and the spatio-temporal sampling achieved by altimeters. The factors combine to lead to considerable underestimation of estimated Hs 10-yr return levels. Sensitivity to these factors is evaluated at specific sites, leading to recommendations about the use of satellite data to estimate extremes and their temporal evolution in coastal environments.

Modelling of Sea Storms Associated With Energy Harvesters: Downtime and Energy Losses

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felice Arena ◽  
Valentina Laface ◽  
Giovanni Malara ◽  
Alessandra Romolo
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Wave Energy ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Energy Losses ◽  
Critical Element ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Energy Harvesters ◽  
Extreme Loads

The design of an energy harvester involves achieving the two following objectives: to install a safe structure with a reasonable safety margin; and to install an effective device which is able to capture energy in a variety of environmental conditions. In this context, the long-term modelling of the environmental variables plays a crucial role. In the context of wave energy harvesters, the occurrence of sea storms is a critical element in the design process. Indeed, its identification is required for determining extreme loads as well as controlled de-activations of the device for preserving the mechanical components into the device. Considering these issues, the paper proposes an analysis of the wave climate oriented to the determination of the downtime and of the energy losses. Specifically, the paper provides expressions: for calculating the average deactivation time of a wave energy device, given that it must be deactivated if the significant wave height is larger than a certain threshold; and for calculating the energy “lost” (as it is not absorbed by the device) during a storm in which the maximum wave height is larger than the mentioned threshold. The paper shows that closed-form expressions can be obtained by relying on the Equivalent Triangular Storm (ETS) model and that the adequacy of the estimations improves for larger values of the significant wave height threshold.

Uncertainty of Ocean Wave Hindcasts Due to Wind Modeling

1995 ◽  
Vol 117 (4) ◽  
pp. 294-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Teixeira ◽  
M. P. Abreu ◽  
C. Guedes Soares
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Error ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Second Generation ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Wind Input

Two wind models were developed and their results were compared with data gathered during the Wangara experiment, so as to characterize their uncertainty. One of the models was adopted to generate the wind fields used as input to a second generation wave model. The relative error in the wind speed was considered in order to assess the uncertainties of the predictions or the significant wave height. Different time steps for the wind input were also used to determine their effect on the predicted significant wave height.

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