Intercomparison of estimators of extreme value family of distributions for rainfall frequency analysis

Estimation of rainfall for a given return period is of utmost importance for planning and design of minor and major hydraulic structures. This can be achieved through Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of rainfall by fitting Extreme Value family of Distributions (EVD) such as Generalized Extreme Value, Extreme Value Type-1, Extreme Value Type-2 and Generalized Pareto to the series of observed Annual 1-Day Maximum Rainfall (AMR) data. Based on the intended applications and the variate under consideration, Method of Moments (MoM), Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) and L-Moments (LMO) are used for determination of parameters of probability distributions. The adequacy of fitting EVD to the AMR series was evaluated by quantitative assessment using Goodness-of-Fit (viz., Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov) and diagnostic test (viz., D-index) tests and qualitative assessment by the fitted curves of the estimated rainfall. The paper presents a study on intercomparison of EVD (using MoM, MLM and LMO) adopted in EVA of rainfall with illustrative example and the results obtained thereof.

Application of Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis to Satellite-Observed Sea Surface Temperature Data for Past Decades

Extreme value analysis (EVA) has been extensively used to understand and predict long-term return extreme values. This study provides the first approach to EVA using satellite-observed sea surface temperature (SST) data over the past decades. Representative EVA methods were compared to select an appropriate method to derive SST extremes of the East/Japan Sea (EJS). As a result, the peaks-over-threshold (POT) method showed better performance than the other methods. The Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) database was used to calculate the 100-year-return SST values in the EJS. The calculated SST extremes were 1.60–3.44°C higher than the average value of the upper 5th-percentile satellite-observed SSTs over the past decades (1982–2018). The monthly distribution of the SST extremes was similar to the known seasonal variation of SSTs in the EJS, but enhanced extreme SSTs exceeding 2°C appeared in early summer and late autumn. The calculated 100-year-return SSTs were compared with the simulation results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate model. As a result, the extreme SSTs were slightly smaller than the maximum SSTs of the model data with a negative bias of –0.36°C. This study suggests that the POT method can improve our understanding of future oceanic warming based on statistical approaches using SSTs observed by satellites over the past decades.

Aspirin with Low-Dose Ticagrelor or with Low-Dose Rivaroxaban for Secondary Prevention: A Cost Per Outcome Analysis

Introduction: Secondary prevention of cardiovascular events among patients with diagnosed cardiovascular disease and high ischemic risk poses a significant challenge in clinical practice. The combinations of aspirin with low dose (LD) Ticagrelor or LD-Rivaroxaban have shown superiority in preventing major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) than aspirin treatment alone. The comparative value for money of these two regimens remains unexplored.Methods: We analyzed each regimen's annual cost needed to treat (CNT) by multiplying the annualized number needed to treat (aNNT) by the annual cost of each drug. The aNNTs were based on outcome data from PEGASUS TIMI-54 and COMPASS trials. Scenario analyses were performed to overcome variances in terms of population risk. Costs were based on 2021 US prices. The primary outcome was defined as CNT to prevent one MACE across the two regimens. Secondary value analysis was performed for myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and CV death as separate outcomes. Results: The aNNTs to prevent MACE with LD-Ticagrelor and with LD-Rivaroxaban were 229 [95% confidence interval (CI):141-734] and 147 (95%CI:104-252), respectively. At an annual cost of 3,618$ versus 4,308$, the corresponding CNTs were 828,478$ (95%CI:510,111$-2,655,471$) with LD-Ticagrelor and 633,270$ (95%CI:448,028$-1,085,607$) with LD-Rivaroxaban. LD-Rivaroxaban.Conclusion: Combining aspirin with LD-Rivaroxaban provides better value for money than with LD-Ticagrelor for secondary prevention of MACE.

THE RELATIONSHIP OF ANXIETY WITH HYPERTENSION FOR ELDERLY IN LAMPE WORKING AREA OF EAST RASANAE PUBLIC HEALTH CENTER BIMA

The increasing number of elderly people pays special attention to those who are experiencing an aging process. There are some problems that need special attention as the results of aging, such as physical, cognitive, emotional, social, and sexual changes. The purpose of this study is to find out the relationships between anxiety with hypertension of the elderly in subdistrict of Lampe working area of East Rasanae Public Health Center, Bima City.The research design of this study is cross sectional with correlation study approach. Around 23 elderly with hypertension was used as sample in the study. Sampling techniques used was total Sampling. The instrument used was questionnaires and spermank rank ws used for data analysis used.Based on the results of the questionnaire, 12 respondents showed no symptoms at all (52.2%), mild anxiety was amounted to 10 respondents (43.5%). 16 respondents (69.6%) were considered to have Hypertension at Stage I. This could also be seen from the test value analysis between anxiety and hypertension of the elderly where p value was greater than the significant level of 0.05 (p value>α) so that Ha was rejected and H0 was accepted, meaning that there was no relationship between anxiety and hypertension of the elderly in the subdistrict of Lampe working area of East Rasanae Public Health Center, Bima City.From the analysis, it can be concluded that there was no relationship between anxiety and hypertension of the elderly. Anxiety in the elderly is not a major factor that can trigger hypertension, yet there are other factors that should be considered by the elderly such as lifestyle and hereditary factors.

Identification of Novel Prognostic Markers Associated With Laryngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Using Comprehensive Analysis

BackgroundLaryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) is a leading malignant cancer of the head and neck. Patients with LSCC, in which the cancer has infiltrated and metastasized, have a poor prognosis. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify more potential targets for drugs and biomarkers for early diagnosis.MethodsRNA sequence data from LSCC and patients’ clinical traits were obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) (GSE142083) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Differentially expressed gene (DEG) analysis and weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) were performed to identify hub genes. Gene ontology (GO), Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analysis, prognostic value analysis, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, gene mutation analysis, tumor-infiltrating immune cell abundance profile estimation, gene set variation analysis (GSVA), and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) were performed. Single-gene RNA sequencing data were obtained from the GSE150321 dataset. Cell proliferation and viability were confirmed by the CCK-8 assay and real-time PCR.ResultsA total of 701 DEGs, including 329 upregulated and 372 downregulated genes, were screened in the GSE142083 dataset. Using WGCNA, three modules were identified to be closely related to LSCC. After intersecting the DEGs and performing univariate and multivariate Cox analyses, a novel prognostic model based on three genes (SLC35C1, HOXB7, and TEDC2) for LSCC was established. Interfering TEDC2 expression inhibited tumor cell proliferation and migration.ConclusionsOur results show that SLC35C1, HOXB7, and TEDC2 have the potential to become new therapeutic targets and prognostic biomarkers for LSCC.

Determining Extreme Still Water Levels for Design and Planning Purposes Incorporating Sea Level Rise: Sydney, Australia

This paper provides an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of the hourly water level record at Fort Denison dating back to 1915 to understand the statistical likelihood of the combination of high predicted tides and the more dynamic influences that can drive ocean water levels higher at the coast. The analysis is based on the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method using a fitted Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) function to estimate extreme hourly heights above mean sea level. The analysis highlights the impact of the 1974 East Coast Low event and rarity of the associated measured water level above mean sea level at Sydney, with an estimated return period exceeding 1000 years. Extreme hourly predictions are integrated with future projections of sea level rise to provide estimates of relevant still water levels at 2050, 2070 and 2100 for a range of return periods (1 to 1000 years) for use in coastal zone management, design, and sea level rise adaptation planning along the NSW coastline. The analytical procedures described provide a step-by-step guide for practitioners on how to develop similar baseline information from any long tide gauge record and the associated limitations and key sensitivities that must be understood and appreciated in applying EVA.

Observed and Projected Scaling of Daily Extreme Precipitation with Dew Point Temperature at Annual and Seasonal Scales across the Northeast United Sates

This study investigates how extreme precipitation scales with dew point temperature across the Northeast U.S., both in the observational record (1948-2020) and in a set of downscaled climate projections in the state of Massachusetts (2006-2099). Spatiotemporal relationships between dew point temperature and extreme precipitation are assessed, and extreme precipitation – temperature scaling rates are evaluated on annual and seasonal scales using non-stationary extreme value analysis for annual maxima and partial duration series, respectively. A hierarchical Bayesian model is then developed to partially pool data across sites and estimate regional scaling rates, with uncertainty. Based on the observations, the estimated annual scaling rate is 5.5% per °C, but this varies by season, with most non-zero scaling rates in summer and fall and the largest rates (∼7.3% per °C) in the summer. Dew point temperatures and extreme precipitation also exhibit the most consistent regional relationships in the summer and fall. Downscaled climate projections exhibited different scaling rates compared to the observations, ranging between -2.5 and 6.2% per °C at an annual scale. These scaling rates are related to the consistency between trends in projected precipitation and dew point temperature over the 21st century. At the seasonal scale, climate models project larger scaling rates for the winter compared to the observations (1.6% per °C). Overall, the observations suggest that extreme daily precipitation in the Northeast U.S. only thermodynamic scales with dew point temperature in the warm season, but climate projections indicate some degree of scaling is possible in the cold season under warming.

Using Ultrasound Guided Needle Biopsy in Combination With GeneXpert MTB/RIF to Diagnose Epididymal Tuberculosis: a Study of 12 Cases

Objective: This study aims to investigate the diagnostic utility of percutaneous ultrasound-guided needle biopsy in combination with GeneXpert MTB/RIF for epididymal tuberculosis.Methods: Between March 2019 to March 2021, specimens obtained from 12 patients with confirmed epididymal tuberculosis by ultrasound guided needle biopsy were sent for pathology and laboratory examination at the Shandong Public Health Clinical Center. The laboratory examination included acid-fast staining, Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture by BACTEC MGIT 960, and the GeneXpert MTB/RIF test. The diagnosis and complications were comprehensively analyzed.Results: Among the 12 cases, seven cases had granulomatous inflammation and necrotic tissue, four cases had chronic inflammatory cells and necrotic tissue, and one case had chronic inflammatory cell infiltration. Furthermore, among the 12 patients, five patients were positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture, two patients were positive for the acid-fast staining, and twelve patients were positive for the GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay. The sensitivity and specificity of the acid-fast staining, Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture and GeneXpert MTB/RIF in the diagnosis of epididymis tuberculosis were 16.67% and 100.00%, 41.67% and 100.00%, and 100.00% and 50.00%, respectively. The diagnostic value analysis of the three detection techniques indicated that the GeneXpert MTB/RIF technique (Kappa=0.63, AUC=0.75) is superior to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture (Kappa=0.17, AUC =0.71) and acid-fast staining (Kappa=0.05, AUC=0.58). Conclusion: Ultrasound guided percutaneous biopsy combined with GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay is extremely useful for diagnosing epididymitis tuberculosis and determining rifampin resistance, with superior sensitivity, specificity and AUC value.