scholarly journals Importance of the Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate in the Eurozone and V4

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 1325-1337
Author(s):  
Patrik Abrahámek
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
External Imbalances ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Current Account

The purpose of this paper is to determine a potential overvaluation and undervaluation of currencies of selected eurozone countries and of the Visegrád Four. The DARER (Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate) model was used for an empirical analysis of the period between 2010–2014 in individual quarters. The advantage of this model is that it explicitly takes into consideration the development of the current account and the debt of the country in connection with the theory of purchasing power parity. The DARER model appears to be a suitable tool for the empirical analysis because, currently, there are many countries in the eurozone with a high debt. In the analysis, data on the current account, debt service payments, GDP, HICP USA and individual researched countries, the exchange rates EUR/USD and CZK/USD, PLN/USD, HUF/USD were used. According to the average overvaluation and undervaluation of currency in all observed states in the Eurozone, in total the overvaluation of the euro against the US dollar was 19.3 %. The overvaluation in individual countries varied from 6.3 % to 33.38 %. These differences in the overvaluation of states’ currency against the US dollar were caused mainly by different development of the balance of payments of the country and the country’s debt. This can indicate various levels of external imbalances among the states within the monetary union. According to the result of this research, the DARER model was able to identify varying overvaluation and undervaluation of currencies in individual eurozone states and the Visegrád Group, so it can be used by policy makers as one of the indicators of these external imbalances of individual countries in the monetary union.

scholarly journals The Limits to Dollarization in Ecuador: Lessons from Argentina

2011 ◽  
pp. 457-462
Author(s):  
Matias Vernengo ◽  
Mathew Bradbury
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Twin Deficits ◽  
The Us ◽  
Financing Gap ◽  
Us Dollar

The paper draws lessons from the failed Argentine experience with convertibility to highlight the dangers of dollarization in Ecuador. Argentina’s currency peg to the US dollar was successful in reducing inflation but given the overvalued real exchange rate, created burgeoning twin deficits and a chronic dependency on foreign capital. Ecuador too suffers from chronic current account imbalance. In contrast to Argentina, Ecuador seems to be relying on remittance income to close its external financing gap. Though perhaps this model is less unstable than that of relying on foreign capital it is no more sustainable. The paper closes with a realistic critique of thisdevelopment strategy.

Monetary Policy and Global Imbalances

2007 ◽  
Vol 199 ◽  
pp. 34-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Ian Hurst
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
First Year ◽  
Sustained Improvement ◽  
J Curve ◽  
The Us ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Noticeable Improvement ◽  
The Current Account

The US current account imbalance has stayed stubbornly high despite the fall in the dollar that we have seen since the beginning of 2003. The exchange rate has fallen by around 15 per cent on average, mainly between the first quarter of 2003 and the first quarter of 2005. As we can see from figure 1, the fall has come in three steps, and each time it fell we might have expected an initial worsening of the current account for a year or so as prices change in advance of quantities (the J curve effect of the first year textbook). Hence we might have expected no sustained improvement until at least a year after the last downward step towards the end of 2004. However, as we can see from figure 2, there is no noticeable improvement in the current account during 2006, suggesting that domestic absorption was rising. At the same time inflation in the US was gradually drifting up under pressure from the weakening exchange rate.

scholarly journals Interlinkage Between Real Exchange Rate And Current Account Behaviors: Evidence From India

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1199-1204
Author(s):  
Mohamed Arouri ◽  
Arif Billah Dar ◽  
Niyati Bhanja ◽  
Aviral Kumar Tiwari ◽  
Frederic Teulon
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Current Account

The study analyzes the dynamic interlinkage between Indias real effective exchange rate and real current account deficit using standard VAR and structural VAR (SVAR). The empirical analysis suggests that a real currency appreciation leads to an improvement in the current account deficit, thereby highlighting the occurrence of permanent shocks such as technical innovations, productivity shocks, and changes in tastes and preferences. A positive shock to the current account deficit leads to an appreciation in the real exchange rate. Moreover, both current account and real exchange rates are found to be affected by the changes in these variables themselves rather than changes in the other variables in the system.

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