Risk Analysis of Running a Deep-Water Production Test From a Dynamically Positioned Vessel in the North Atlantic

2005 ◽  
Vol 127 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-58
Author(s):  
Marc A. Maes ◽  
Jeff Sinclair ◽  
David B. Lewis

The present paper describes the key steps and issues involved in performing a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for a dynamically positioned (DP) offshore vessel that is used to perform a short-term production test (PT) in North Atlantic deep waters. The basic approach is to focus on the “incremental” risk that would occur if the PT were run from a DP vessel as opposed to a fixed structure. The analysis is structured around two basic groups of risk: those specifically associated with DP vessel disconnection decisions and activities (all of which are seasonal), and those occurring during normal operation of the DP vessel. In the case of disconnection caused by hazards such as severe weather, ice, equipment or reference system malfunction, or human/operating error, a large variety of event sequences is assumed, each resulting in different consequences and risks. These are formulated for each analysis outcome in terms of loss of life, release of chemicals into the environment, and damage and loss of assets and equipment, as well as overall failure cost. It is shown that the QRA provides a very useful basis for optimal decision making with respect to the feasibility, the planning, and the risk/benefit of deep-water production testing from a DP vessel.

Author(s):  
Marc A. Maes ◽  
Jeff Sinclair ◽  
David B. Lewis

The present paper describes the key steps and issues involved in performing a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for a dynamically positioned (DP) offshore vessel that is used to perform a short-term production test (PT) in North Atlantic deep waters. The basic approach is to focus on the “incremental” risk that would occur if the PT were run from a DP vessel as opposed to a fixed structure. The analysis is structured around two basic groups of risk: those specifically associated with DP vessel disconnection decisions and activities (all of which are seasonal) and those occurring during normal operation of the DP vessel. In the case of disconnection caused by hazards such as severe weather, ice, equipment or reference system malfunction, or human/operating error, a large variety of event sequences is assumed, each resulting in different consequences and risks. These are formulated for each analysis outcome in terms of loss of life, release of chemicals into the environment, damage and loss of assets and equipment, as well as overall failure cost. It is shown that the QRA provides a very useful basis for optimal decision making with respect to the feasibility, the planning, and the risk/benefit of deep-water production testing from a DP vessel.


1998 ◽  
Vol 180 ◽  
pp. 163-167
Author(s):  
Antoon Kuijpers ◽  
Jørn Bo Jensen ◽  
Simon R . Troelstra ◽  
And shipboard scientific party of RV Professor Logachev and RV Dana

Direct interaction between the atmosphere and the deep ocean basins takes place today only in the Southern Ocean near the Antarctic continent and in the northern extremity of the North Atlantic Ocean, notably in the Norwegian–Greenland Sea and Labrador Sea. Cooling and evaporation cause surface waters in the latter region to become dense and sink. At depth, further mixing occurs with Arctic water masses from adjacent polar shelves. Export of these water masses from the Norwegian–Greenland Sea (Norwegian Sea Overflow Water) to the North Atlantic basin occurs via two major gateways, the Denmark Strait system and the Faeroe– Shetland Channel and Faeroe Bank Channel system (e.g. Dickson et al. 1990; Fig.1). Deep convection in the Labrador Sea produces intermediate waters (Labrador Sea Water), which spreads across the North Atlantic. Deep waters thus formed in the North Atlantic (North Atlantic Deep Water) constitute an essential component of a global ‘conveyor’ belt extending from the North Atlantic via the Southern and Indian Oceans to the Pacific. Water masses return as a (warm) surface water flow. In the North Atlantic this is the Gulf Stream and the relatively warm and saline North Atlantic Current. Numerous palaeo-oceanographic studies have indicated that climatic changes in the North Atlantic region are closely related to changes in surface circulation and in the production of North Atlantic Deep Water. Abrupt shut-down of the ocean-overturning and subsequently of the conveyor belt is believed to represent a potential explanation for rapid climate deterioration at high latitudes, such as those that caused the Quaternary ice ages. Here it should be noted, that significant changes in deep convection in Greenland waters have also recently occurred. While in the Greenland Sea deep water formation over the last decade has drastically decreased, a strong increase of deep convection has simultaneously been observed in the Labrador Sea (Sy et al. 1997).


2012 ◽  
Vol 81 (3) ◽  
pp. 1133-1137 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. P. Vieira ◽  
B. Christiansen ◽  
S. Christiansen ◽  
J. M. S. Gonçalves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Miron ◽  
Maria J. Olascoaga ◽  
Francisco J. Beron-Vera ◽  
Kimberly L. Drouin ◽  
M. Susan Lozier

<p>The North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) flows equatorward along the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) as well as interior pathways and is a critical part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Its upper layer, the Labrador Sea Water (LSW), is formed by open-ocean deep convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas while its lower layers, the Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) and the Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW), are formed north of the Greenland–Iceland–Scotland Ridge.</p><p>In recent years, more than two hundred acoustically-tracked subsurface floats have been deployed in the deep waters of the North Atlantic.  Studies to date have highlighted water mass pathways from launch locations, but due to limited float trajectory lengths, these studies have been unable to identify pathways connecting  remote regions.</p><p>This work presents a framework to explore deep water pathways from their respective sources in the North Atlantic using Markov Chain (MC) modeling and Transition Path Theory (TPT). Using observational trajectories released as part of OSNAP and the Argo projects, we constructed two MCs that approximate the lower and upper layers of the NADW Lagrangian dynamics. The reactive NADW pathways—directly connecting NADW sources with a target at 53°N—are obtained from these MCs using TPT.</p><p>Preliminary results show that twenty percent more pathways of the upper layer(LSW) reach the ocean interior compared to  the lower layer (ISOW, DSOW), which mostly flows along the DWBC in the subpolar North Atlantic. Also identified are the Labrador Sea recirculation pathways to the Irminger Sea and the direct connections from the Reykjanes Ridge to the eastern flank of the Mid–Atlantic Ridge, both previously observed. Furthermore, we quantified the eastern spread of the LSW to the area surrounding the Charlie–Gibbs Fracture Zone and compared it with previous analysis. Finally, the residence time of the upper and lower layers are assessed and compared to previous observations.</p>


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