10.29007/v979 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ziad Shawwash ◽  
James H. Everett

This paper presents the Risk Informed Decision-making Framework and software tool we developed that formally account for flood risk and uncertainty in reservoir operations. The framework and the software tool are intended for practical use by reservoir operations planners to manage flooding events. We present a robust and comprehensive approach that accounts for a multitude of flood risks and their impacts, and that enables its users to identify those alternative reservoir operating plans that formally adopt a state-of-the-art risk informed decision-making framework. Solidly grounded in and closely follows a well-structured planning process, the framework augments existing planning processes and information flows that incorporates specific techniques and methods from probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and Multi-criteria Decision Analysis techniques (MCDA). Seven major hydropower companies and agencies in North America and Europe sponsored the development of the framework and the decision support tool. We present the results of a case study to illustrate the framework and the software system. We show that numerous advantages can be achieved using such tools over currently used approaches and that in the case of risky and high-impact processes, such as in the management of potentially high-consequence facilities such as storage reservoirs, management by a human operator is essential.


Author(s):  
Douglas Van Bossuyt ◽  
Chris Hoyle ◽  
Irem Y. Tumer ◽  
Richard Malak ◽  
Toni Doolen ◽  
...  

Current methods of risk analysis conducted during the early phases of complex system design do not give a clear voice to the customer or design engineer when considering engineering risk attitude in the dynamic shaping of early-phase conceptual design trade study outcomes. The existing methods either collect risk information following the completion of a conceptual design thus treating risk as an afterthought during trade studies, make risk-informed decisions prior to the conduction of trade studies thus artificially constraining the design space, or do not consider risk at all. This paper proposes a risk-informed decision making framework that offers a new, meaningful way of accounting for risk during trade studies, informs design decisions during trade studies with pertinent risk information, and takes into account risk attitude of the design engineer or customer when risk-informed decisions are made. Risk is elevated to the same level of importance as other system level variables in trade studies and risk-based decisions are made by individual subsystem engineers through the lens of risk appetite. Several previously developed methods of risk trading, assessing engineering risk attitude, and making risk-informed decisions based upon engineering risk attitude using utility theory are synthesized into the risk-informed decision-making framework. Implementation methods for trade studies being performed by groups of people and automatically by computers are presented. Sensitivity of the framework to input variable variation is examined. A spacecraft example is employed to demonstrate the usefulness of the framework. This paper provides a novel framework for risk-informed design decisions made within trade studies that are based upon engineering risk attitudes in early phase conceptual design.


2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Chung ◽  
Blaine Reeder ◽  
Amanda Lazar ◽  
Jonathan Joe ◽  
George Demiris ◽  
...  

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin Grislain ◽  
Jeremy Bourgoin ◽  
Ward Anseeuw ◽  
Perrine Burnod ◽  
Eva Hershaw ◽  
...  

In recent decades, mechanisms for observation and information production have proliferated in an attempt to meet the growing needs of stakeholders to access dynamic data for the purposes of informed decision-making. In the land sector, a growing number of land observatories are producing data and ensuring its transparency. We hypothesize that these structures are being developed in response to the need for information and knowledge, a need that is being driven by the scale and diversity of land issues. Based on the results of a study conducted on land observatories in Africa, this paper presents existing and past land observatories on the continent and proposes to assess their diversity through an analysis of core dimensions identified in the literature. The analytical framework was implemented through i) an analysis of existing literature on land observatories, ii) detailed assessments of land observatories based on semi-open interviews conducted via video conferencing, iii) fieldwork and visits to several observatories, and iv) participant observation through direct engagement and work at land observatories. We emphasize that the analytical framework presented here can be used as a tool by land observatories to undertake ex-post self-evaluations that take the observatory’s trajectory into account, or in the case of proposed new land observatories, to undertake ex-ante analyses and design the pathway towards the intended observatory.


Author(s):  
Daniëlle N. Zijlstra ◽  
Jean W.M. Muris ◽  
Catherine Bolman ◽  
J. Mathis Elling ◽  
Vera E.R.A. Knapen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: To expedite the use of evidence-based smoking cessation interventions (EBSCIs) in primary care and to thereby increase the number of successful quit attempts, a referral aid was developed. This aid aims to optimize the referral to and use of EBSCIs in primary care and to increase adherence to Dutch guidelines for smoking cessation. Methods: Practice nurses (PNs) will be randomly allocated to an experimental condition or control condition, and will then recruit smoking patients who show a willingness to quit smoking within six months. PNs allocated to the experimental condition will provide smoking cessation guidance in accordance with the referral aid. Patients from both conditions will receive questionnaires at baseline and after six months. Cessation effectiveness will be tested via multilevel logistic regression analyses. Multiple imputations as well as intention to treat analysis will be performed. Intervention appreciation and level of informed decision-making will be compared using analysis of (co)variance. Predictors for appreciation and informed decision-making will be assessed using multiple linear regression analysis and/or structural equation modeling. Finally, a cost-effectiveness study will be conducted. Discussion: This paper describes the study design for the development and evaluation of an information and decision tool to support PNs in their guidance of smoking patients and their referral to EBSCIs. The study aims to provide insight into the (cost) effectiveness of an intervention aimed at expediting the use of EBSCIs in primary care.


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