scholarly journals Risk Informed Decision-Making Framework for Operating Reservoirs Under Flooding Conditions: Accounting for Uncertainty and Risk

10.29007/v979 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ziad Shawwash ◽  
James H. Everett
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Reservoir Operations ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Impact Processes ◽  
Decision Making Framework

This paper presents the Risk Informed Decision-making Framework and software tool we developed that formally account for flood risk and uncertainty in reservoir operations. The framework and the software tool are intended for practical use by reservoir operations planners to manage flooding events. We present a robust and comprehensive approach that accounts for a multitude of flood risks and their impacts, and that enables its users to identify those alternative reservoir operating plans that formally adopt a state-of-the-art risk informed decision-making framework. Solidly grounded in and closely follows a well-structured planning process, the framework augments existing planning processes and information flows that incorporates specific techniques and methods from probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and Multi-criteria Decision Analysis techniques (MCDA). Seven major hydropower companies and agencies in North America and Europe sponsored the development of the framework and the decision support tool. We present the results of a case study to illustrate the framework and the software system. We show that numerous advantages can be achieved using such tools over currently used approaches and that in the case of risky and high-impact processes, such as in the management of potentially high-consequence facilities such as storage reservoirs, management by a human operator is essential.

scholarly journals A Decision Support Tool for Agricultural Applications Based on Computational Social Choice and Argumentation

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 54-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikos Karanikolas ◽  
Pierre Bisquert ◽  
Patrice Buche ◽  
Christos Kaklamanis ◽  
Rallou Thomopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Choice ◽  
Food Packaging ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Computational Social Choice ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
The Social ◽  
Agricultural Applications

In the current article, the authors describe an applied procedure to support collective decision making for applications in agriculture. An extended 2-page abstract of this paper has been accepted by the EFITA WCCA congress and this manuscript is an extended version of this submission. The problem the authors are facing in this paper is how to reach the best decision regarding issues coming from agricultural engineering with the aid of Computational Social Choice (CSC) and Argumentation Framework (AF). In the literature of decision-making, several approaches from the domains of CSC and AF have been used autonomously to support decisions. It is our belief that with the combination of these two fields the authors can propose socially fair decisions which take into account both (1) the involved agents' preferences and (2) the justifications behind these preferences. Therefore, this article implements a software tool for decision-making which is composed of two main systems, i.e., the social choice system and the deliberation system. In this article, the authors describe thoroughly the social choice system of our tool and how it can be applied to different alternatives on the valorization of materials coming from agriculture. As an example, that is demonstrated an application of our tool in the context of Ecobiocap European project where several decision problems are to be addressed. These decision problems consist in finding the best solutions for questions regarding food packaging and end-of-life management.

Toward an Early-Phase Conceptual System Design Risk-Informed Decision Making Framework

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas Van Bossuyt ◽  
Chris Hoyle ◽  
Irem Y. Tumer ◽  
Richard Malak ◽  
Toni Doolen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
System Design ◽  
Conceptual Design ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Informed Decisions ◽  
Decision Making Framework

Current methods of risk analysis conducted during the early phases of complex system design do not give a clear voice to the customer or design engineer when considering engineering risk attitude in the dynamic shaping of early-phase conceptual design trade study outcomes. The existing methods either collect risk information following the completion of a conceptual design thus treating risk as an afterthought during trade studies, make risk-informed decisions prior to the conduction of trade studies thus artificially constraining the design space, or do not consider risk at all. This paper proposes a risk-informed decision making framework that offers a new, meaningful way of accounting for risk during trade studies, informs design decisions during trade studies with pertinent risk information, and takes into account risk attitude of the design engineer or customer when risk-informed decisions are made. Risk is elevated to the same level of importance as other system level variables in trade studies and risk-based decisions are made by individual subsystem engineers through the lens of risk appetite. Several previously developed methods of risk trading, assessing engineering risk attitude, and making risk-informed decisions based upon engineering risk attitude using utility theory are synthesized into the risk-informed decision-making framework. Implementation methods for trade studies being performed by groups of people and automatically by computers are presented. Sensitivity of the framework to input variable variation is examined. A spacecraft example is employed to demonstrate the usefulness of the framework. This paper provides a novel framework for risk-informed design decisions made within trade studies that are based upon engineering risk attitudes in early phase conceptual design.

scholarly journals Exploring an informed decision-making framework using in-home sensors: older adults’ perceptions

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Chung ◽  
Blaine Reeder ◽  
Amanda Lazar ◽  
Jonathan Joe ◽  
George Demiris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Framework

scholarly journals Going Beyond Panaceas: The Diversity of Land Observatory Forms in Africa

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin Grislain ◽  
Jeremy Bourgoin ◽  
Ward Anseeuw ◽  
Perrine Burnod ◽  
Eva Hershaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Participant Observation ◽  
Video Conferencing ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Information Production ◽  
Dynamic Data ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante

In recent decades, mechanisms for observation and information production have proliferated in an attempt to meet the growing needs of stakeholders to access dynamic data for the purposes of informed decision-making. In the land sector, a growing number of land observatories are producing data and ensuring its transparency. We hypothesize that these structures are being developed in response to the need for information and knowledge, a need that is being driven by the scale and diversity of land issues. Based on the results of a study conducted on land observatories in Africa, this paper presents existing and past land observatories on the continent and proposes to assess their diversity through an analysis of core dimensions identified in the literature. The analytical framework was implemented through i) an analysis of existing literature on land observatories, ii) detailed assessments of land observatories based on semi-open interviews conducted via video conferencing, iii) fieldwork and visits to several observatories, and iv) participant observation through direct engagement and work at land observatories. We emphasize that the analytical framework presented here can be used as a tool by land observatories to undertake ex-post self-evaluations that take the observatory’s trajectory into account, or in the case of proposed new land observatories, to undertake ex-ante analyses and design the pathway towards the intended observatory.

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