First-Order Reliability Analysis of Vehicle Safety in Highway Horizontal Curves

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaekwan Shin ◽  
Ikjin Lee
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Design Method ◽  
First Order ◽  
Horizontal Curves ◽  
State Highway ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Current Design ◽  
Margin Of Safety ◽  
Analytic Models

This study presents a reliability analysis of vehicle sideslip and rollover in highway horizontal curves, mainly focusing on exit ramps and interchanges. To accurately describe failure modes of a ground vehicle, analytic models for sideslip and rollover are derived considering nonlinear characteristics of vehicle behavior using the commercial software, TruckSim®, with high fidelity. Then, the probability of accident is evaluated using the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). Furthermore, sensitivity functions of each failure mode are analytically derived to apply FORM. Numerical studies are conducted using a single-unit truck model. The results show that a truck is more likely to rollover than to slip at dry load. To propose practical application of the study, the reliability analysis for the minimum radius recommended by American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) at various speeds and bank angles is conducted. The reliability analysis of current design method shows that the method cannot provide the sufficient margin of safety against both of rollover and sideslip when there are deviations from assumed conditions, especially at low speed of vehicles.

Some Important Issues on First-Order Reliability Analysis With Nonprobabilistic Convex Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 136 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Jiang ◽  
G. Y. Lu ◽  
X. Han ◽  
R. G. Bi
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Convex Model ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Complex Engineering ◽  
Mean Value Method ◽  
Form Type

Compared with the probability model, the convex model approach only requires the bound information on the uncertainty, and can make it possible to conduct the reliability analysis for many complex engineering problems with limited samples. Presently, by introducing the well-established techniques in probability-based reliability analysis, some methods have been successfully developed for convex model reliability. This paper aims to reveal some different phenomena and furthermore some severe paradoxes when extending the widely used first-order reliability method (FORM) into the convex model problems, and whereby provide some useful suggestions and guidelines for convex-model-based reliability analysis. Two FORM-type approximations, namely, the mean-value method and the design-point method, are formulated to efficiently compute the nonprobabilistic reliability index. A comparison is then conducted between these two methods, and some important phenomena different from the traditional FORMs are summarized. The nonprobabilistic reliability index is also extended to treat the system reliability, and some unexpected paradoxes are found through two numerical examples.

Reliability analysis of corroded pipelines: Novel adaptive conjugate first order reliability method

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 103986 ◽  
Author(s):  
Behrooz Keshtegar ◽  
Mohamed El Amine Ben Seghier ◽  
Shun-Peng Zhu ◽  
Rouzbeh Abbassi ◽  
Nguyen-Thoi Trung
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
First Order Reliability Method ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reliability Method

Reliability analysis of wood I-joists

1993 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 564-573 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. O. Foschi ◽  
F. Z. Yao
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Load Carrying Capacity ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
Strength Limit ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Load Carrying

This paper presents a reliability analysis of wood I-joists for both strength and serviceability limit states. Results are obtained from a finite element analysis coupled with a first-order reliability method. For the strength limit state of load-carrying capacity, multiple failure modes are considered, each involving the interaction of several random variables. Good agreement is achieved between the test results and the theoretical prediction of variability in load-carrying capacity. Finally, a procedure is given to obtain load-sharing adjustment factors applicable to repetitive member systems such as floors and flat roofs. Key words: reliability, limit state design, wood composites, I-joist, structural analysis.

scholarly journals A decoupling algorithm with first-order asymptotic integration for reliability-based design optimization

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 168781401879333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiliang Huang ◽  
Tongguang Yang ◽  
Fangyi Li
Keyword(s):  
Design Optimization ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Asymptotic Integration ◽  
Probabilistic Constraints ◽  
Reliability Based Design Optimization ◽  
First Order Reliability Method ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reliability Based Design ◽  
Reliability Method

Conventional decoupling approaches usually employ first-order reliability method to deal with probabilistic constraints in a reliability-based design optimization problem. In first-order reliability method, constraint functions are transformed into a standard normal space. Extra non-linearity introduced by the non-normal-to-normal transformation may increase the error in reliability analysis and then result in the reliability-based design optimization analysis with insufficient accuracy. In this article, a decoupling approach is proposed to provide an alternative tool for the reliability-based design optimization problems. To improve accuracy, the reliability analysis is performed by first-order asymptotic integration method without any extra non-linearity transformation. To achieve high efficiency, an approximate technique of reliability analysis is given to avoid calculating time-consuming performance function. Two numerical examples and an application of practical laptop structural design are presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

First-Order Reliability Method for Structural Reliability Analysis in the Presence of Random and Interval Variables

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Umberto Alibrandi ◽  
C. G. Koh
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Computational Effort ◽  
Stochastic Dynamic ◽  
First Order Reliability Method ◽  
First Order ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Reliability Method

This paper presents a novel procedure based on first-order reliability method (FORM) for structural reliability analysis in the presence of random parameters and interval uncertain parameters. In the proposed formulation, the hybrid problem is reduced to standard reliability problems, where the limit state functions are defined only in terms of the random variables. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) for hybrid reliability analysis (HRA) is presented, and it is shown that it requires a tremendous computational effort; FORM for HRA is more efficient but still demanding. The computational cost is significantly reduced through a simplified procedure, which gives good approximations of the design points, by requiring only three classical FORMs and one interval analysis (IA), developed herein through an optimization procedure. FORM for HRA and its simplified formulation achieve a much improved efficiency than MCS by several orders of magnitude, and it can thus be applied to real-world engineering problems. Representative examples of stochastic dynamic analysis and performance-based engineering are presented.

An Efficient Methodology for the Reliability Analysis of Corroding Pipelines

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Zhang ◽  
W. Zhou
Keyword(s):  
System Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Weighting Factor ◽  
Probability Weighting ◽  
Index Method ◽  
First Order ◽  
Corrosion Defect ◽  
Small Leak ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Dependent Failure

This paper describes an efficient methodology that utilizes the first order reliability method (FORM) and system reliability approaches to evaluate the time-dependent failure probabilities of a pressurized pipeline at a single active corrosion defect considering three different failure modes, i.e. small leak, large leak and rupture. The criteria for distinguishing small leak, large leak and rupture at a given corrosion defect are established based on the information in the literature. The wedge integral and probability weighting factor methods are used to evaluate the probabilities of small leak and burst, whereas the conditional reliability index method is used to evaluate the probabilities of large leak and rupture. Two numerical examples are used to illustrate the accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology can be used to facilitate reliability-based corrosion management programs for energy pipelines.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document