Stochastic Modeling of Chemical Transport Through Human Skin
A probabilistic, transient, three-phase model of chemical transport through human skin has been developed to assess the relative importance of uncertain parameters and processes during chemical exposure assessments and transdermal drug delivery. Penetration routes through the skin that were modeled include the following: (1) intercellular diffusion through the multiphase stratum corneum; (2) aqueous-phase diffusion through sweat ducts; and (3) oil-phase diffusion through hair follicles. Uncertainty distributions were developed for the model parameters, and a Monte Carlo analysis was performed to simulate probability distributions of mass fluxes through each of the routes for a hypothetical scenario of chemical transport through the skin. At early times (60 seconds), the sweat ducts provided a significant amount of simulated mass flux into the bloodstream. At longer times (1 hour), diffusion through the stratum corneum became important because of its relatively large surface area. Sensitivity analyses using stepwise linear regression were also performed to identify model parameters that were most important to the simulated mass fluxes at different times.