Quantitative Seismic Risk Assessment of Process Plants: State of the Art Review and Directions for Future Research

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio C. Caputo ◽  
Renato Giannini ◽  
Fabrizio Paolacci
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Industrial Sites ◽  
The Past ◽  
Process Plants

Earthquakes represent a class of Natural-Technical hazards which in the past has been responsible of major accidents and significant losses in many industrial sites. However, while codes and standards have been issued to design specific structures and equipment in the civil and industrial domain, established procedures for Quantitative Seismic Risk Assessment (QSRA) of process plants are not yet available. In this paper a critical review of seismic risk assessment methods applicable to process plants is carried out. Their limitations are highlighted and areas needing further research are identified.

Problems and Perspectives in Seismic Quantitative Risk Analysis of Chemical Process Plants

2018 ◽  
Vol 141 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio C. Caputo ◽  
Fabrizio Paolacci ◽  
Oreste S. Bursi ◽  
Renato Giannini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
Chemical Process ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Quantitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Industrial Sites ◽  
The Past ◽  
Process Plants

Earthquakes represent a class of natural-technical (NaTech) hazards which in the past have been responsible of major accidents and significant losses in many industrial sites. However, while codes and standards are issued to design specific structures and equipment in both the civil and industrial domain, established procedures for seismic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of process plants are not yet available. In this paper, a critical review of seismic QRA methods applicable to process plants is carried out. Their limitations are highlighted and areas where further research is needed are identified. This will allow to refine modeling tools in order to increase the capabilities of risk analysis in process plants subjected to earthquakes.

Numerical Simulation of Seismic Risk and Loss Propagation Effects in Process Plants: An Oil Refinery Case Study

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio C. Caputo ◽  
Alessandro Vigna
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Industrial Process ◽  
Oil Refinery ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Technical Standards ◽  
Process Plants

Process plants are vulnerable to natural hazards and, in particular, to earthquakes. Nevertheless, the quantitative assessment of seismic risk of process plants is a complex task because available methodologies developed in the field of civil and nuclear engineering are not readily applicable to process plants, while technical standards and regulations do not establish any procedure for the overall seismic risk assessment of industrial process plants located in earthquake-prone areas. This paper details the results of a case study performing a seismic risk assessment of an Italian refinery having a 85,000 barrels per day production capacity, and a storage capacity of over 1,500,000 m3. The analysis has been carried out resorting to a novel quantitative methodology developed in the framework of a European Union research program (INDUSE 2 SAFETY). The method is able to systematically generate potential starting scenarios, deriving from simultaneous interactions of the earthquake with each separate equipment, and to account for propagation of effects between distinct equipment (i.e. Domino effects) keeping track of multiple simultaneous and possibly interacting chains of accidents. In the paper the methodology, already described elsewhere, is briefly resumed, and numerical results are presented showing relevant accident chains and expected economic loss, demonstrating the capabilities of the developed tool.

A Model for Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment of Process Plants

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio C. Caputo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Industrial Process ◽  
Nuclear Industry ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Hazardous Substances ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Damage Scenarios ◽  
Process Plants

Seismic vulnerability of industrial plants processing hazardous substances is widely documented, and thousands of such facilities are located in areas of medium to high seismicity near population centers. Nevertheless, with the exception of the nuclear industry, national or international standards do not establish any procedure for the overall seismic risk assessment of industrial process plants located in earthquake-prone areas. Moreover, existing Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment (PSRA) methods developed by the nuclear industry are not readily applicable to process plants. In order to overcome this limitation, in this paper a novel general-purpose PSRA method is presented, able to systematically generate potential starting scenarios, deriving from simultaneous interactions of the earthquake with each separate equipment, and to account for propagation of effects between distinct equipment (i.e. Domino effects) keeping track of multiple simultaneous and possibly interacting chains of accidents. This allows to dynamically generate damage scenarios, and to rank their risk levels determining the critical process units that can be involved.

SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT AND REDUCTION IN ITALY

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (Special Issue on First SACEE'19) ◽  
pp. 55-75
Author(s):  
Fabio Sabetta
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Public Funding ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
Technical Training ◽  
Disaster Prevention ◽  
Existing Buildings ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Post Disaster

In this paper, the main features of the policies adopted in Italy for seismic risk reduction are discussed. Particular attention is given to the Pre-disaster prevention activities such as the implementation of the building code, the seismic risk assessment for a priority scale of intervention, tax incentives and public funding for the vulnerability reduction of the existing buildings, information to population and school education, technical training of experts. The phases of response and post-disaster activities, including emergency management, search and rescue, loss scenarios, and safety assessment of buildings, are also discussed taking example from the most recent devastating earthquakes in Italy (L.Aquila 2009, Amatrice 2016).

SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION FOR THE EXISTING LIFELINE

2011 ◽  
Vol 05 (01) ◽  
pp. 31-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. IMAI ◽  
S. WADA ◽  
T. KOIKE
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Water Distribution ◽  
Water Distribution Network ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Seismic Retrofitting ◽  
Network System ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment

In order to keep the existing lifeline network system at a favorable seismic performance level, it is necessary to carry out retrofitting activities. This study proposes a seismic risk assessment method for the existing deteriorated lifeline network system based on the probability of system performance failure. Numerical simulations are carried out for the existing water distribution network system for several seismic investment strategies to support the decision making of seismic disaster mitigation planning. Effective planning of seismic retrofitting activities and disaster mitigation for the existing lifeline system can be realized using the newly developed assessment method.

Risk assessment of waterborne protozoa: current status and future trends

Parasitology ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 117 (7) ◽  
pp. 205-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. GIBSON ◽  
C. N. HAAS ◽  
J. B. ROSE
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Chemical Risk Assessment ◽  
Low Levels

Throughout the past decade much research has been directed towards identifying the occurrence, epidemiology, and risks associated with waterborne protozoa. While outbreaks are continually documented, sporadic cases of disease associated with exposure to low levels of waterborne protozoa are of increasing concern. Current methodologies may not be sensitive enough to define these low levels of disease. However, risk assessment methods may be utilised to address these low level contamination events. The purpose of this article is to provide an introduction to microbial risk assessment for waterborne protozoa. Risk assessment is a useful tool for evaluating relative risks and can be used for development of policies to decrease risks. Numerous studies have been published on risk assessment methods for pathogenic protozoa including Cryptosporidium and Giardia. One common notion prevails: microbial risk assessment presents interesting complications to the traditional chemical risk assessment paradigm. Single microbial exposures (non-threshold) are capable of causing symptomatic illness unlike traditional chemical exposures, which require a threshold to be reached. Due to the lack of efficient recovery and detection methods for protozoa, we may be underestimating the occurrence, concentration and distribution of these pathogenic micro-organisms. To better utilize the tool of microbial risk assessment for risk management practices, future research should focus in the area of exposure assessment.

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