A Model for Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment of Process Plants

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio C. Caputo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Industrial Process ◽  
Nuclear Industry ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Hazardous Substances ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Damage Scenarios ◽  
Process Plants

Seismic vulnerability of industrial plants processing hazardous substances is widely documented, and thousands of such facilities are located in areas of medium to high seismicity near population centers. Nevertheless, with the exception of the nuclear industry, national or international standards do not establish any procedure for the overall seismic risk assessment of industrial process plants located in earthquake-prone areas. Moreover, existing Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment (PSRA) methods developed by the nuclear industry are not readily applicable to process plants. In order to overcome this limitation, in this paper a novel general-purpose PSRA method is presented, able to systematically generate potential starting scenarios, deriving from simultaneous interactions of the earthquake with each separate equipment, and to account for propagation of effects between distinct equipment (i.e. Domino effects) keeping track of multiple simultaneous and possibly interacting chains of accidents. This allows to dynamically generate damage scenarios, and to rank their risk levels determining the critical process units that can be involved.

Numerical Simulation of Seismic Risk and Loss Propagation Effects in Process Plants: An Oil Refinery Case Study

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio C. Caputo ◽  
Alessandro Vigna
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Industrial Process ◽  
Oil Refinery ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Technical Standards ◽  
Process Plants

Process plants are vulnerable to natural hazards and, in particular, to earthquakes. Nevertheless, the quantitative assessment of seismic risk of process plants is a complex task because available methodologies developed in the field of civil and nuclear engineering are not readily applicable to process plants, while technical standards and regulations do not establish any procedure for the overall seismic risk assessment of industrial process plants located in earthquake-prone areas. This paper details the results of a case study performing a seismic risk assessment of an Italian refinery having a 85,000 barrels per day production capacity, and a storage capacity of over 1,500,000 m3. The analysis has been carried out resorting to a novel quantitative methodology developed in the framework of a European Union research program (INDUSE 2 SAFETY). The method is able to systematically generate potential starting scenarios, deriving from simultaneous interactions of the earthquake with each separate equipment, and to account for propagation of effects between distinct equipment (i.e. Domino effects) keeping track of multiple simultaneous and possibly interacting chains of accidents. In the paper the methodology, already described elsewhere, is briefly resumed, and numerical results are presented showing relevant accident chains and expected economic loss, demonstrating the capabilities of the developed tool.

Seismic risk assessment of RC curved bridges through fragility curves

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina N. Serdar ◽  
Jelena R. Pejovic ◽  
Radenko Pejovic ◽  
Miloš Knežević
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Curved Bridges ◽  
Damage State ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Probability Of Exceedance ◽  
Damage States

<p>It is of great importance that traffic network is still functioning in post- earthquake period, so that interventions in emergency situations are not delayed. Bridges are part of the traffic system that can be considered as critical for adequate post-earthquake response. Their seismic response often dominate the response and reliability of overall transportation system, so special attention should be given to risk assessment for these structures. In seismic vulnerability and risk assessment bridges are often classified as regular or irregular structures, dependant on their configuration. Curved bridges are considered as irregular and unexpected behaviour during seismic excitation is noticed in past earthquake events. Still there are an increasing number of these structures especially in densely populated urban areas since curved configuration is often suitable to accommodate complicated location conditions. In this paper special attention is given to seismic risk assessment of curved reinforce concrete bridges through fragility curves. Procedure for developing fragility curves is described as well as influence of radius curvature on their seismic vulnerability is investigated. Since vulnerability curves provide probability of exceedance of certain damage state, four damage states are considered: near collapse, significant damage, intermediate damage state, onset of damage and damage limitation. As much as possible these damage states are related to current European provisions. Radius of horizontal curvature is varied by changing subtended angle: 25 °, 45 ° and 90 °. Also one corresponding straight bridge is analysed. Nonlinear static procedure is used for developing of fragility curves. It was shown that probability of exceedance of certain damage states is increased as subtended angle is increased. Also it is determined that fragility of curved bridges can be related to fragility of straight counterparts what facilitates seismic evaluation of seismic vulnerability of curved bridges structures.</p>

scholarly journals A Contribution to a UHS-Based Seismic Risk Assessment in Croatia—A Case Study for the City of Osijek

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordana Pavić ◽  
Marijana Hadzima-Nyarko ◽  
Borko Bulajić
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
Vulnerability Of Buildings ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Impact

Due to increases in the number of inhabitants and their concentrations in densely populated areas, there is a growing need in modern society to be cautious towards the impact of catastrophic natural events. An earthquake is a particularly major example of this. Knowledge of the seismic vulnerability of buildings in Europe and around the world has deepened and expanded over the last 20 years, as a result of the many devastating earthquakes. In this study, a review of seismic risk assessment methods in Croatia was presented with respect to the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability of buildings in the fourth largest city (Osijek) in Croatia. The proposed algorithm for a detailed risk assessment was applied to a database and is currently in its initial stage.

Study Concerning the Level of Seismic Risk in Iasi Municipality

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 86-93
Author(s):  
Georgiana Bunea ◽  
Cornel Doniga ◽  
Gabriela Maria Atanasiu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Town ◽  
General Perspective

Throughout its history, Iasi municipality has been subjected to many important seismic actions caused by earthquakes produced in Vrancea area, Romania. The impact of these extreme events upon the town increased in time as it developed, more buildings were constructed and the population density rose. The classes of buildings identified in Iasi municipality have been designed on different seismic standards, some of them being erected without taking into account the effect of seismic actions. The differences between the seismic norms’ regulations and the important earthquake’s history some of the buildings have, are outlining the need of seismic risk assessment in Iasi municipality. This paper aims to present some of the results of the seismic risk study in Iasi municipality, which was based on the completed seismic risk surveys and on the regulations of seismic standards. In this study, only the dwelling structures built before 1990 were considered, and the results were distributed on neighborhoods, for obtaining a general perspective on the seismic risk state of each area, by considering the buildings’ seismic vulnerability.

Comparative seismic RISK assessment of existing RC buildings using seismic vulnerability index approach

Structures ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 889-913
Author(s):  
Moustafa Moufid Kassem ◽  
Fadzli Mohamed Nazri ◽  
Ehsan Noroozinejad Farsangi ◽  
Chee Ghuan Tan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Rc Buildings ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Index Approach

scholarly journals Damage Scenarios Simulation for Seismic Risk Assessment in Urban Zones

1996 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex H. Barbat ◽  
Fabricio Yépez Moya ◽  
JoséA. Canas
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Seismic Behaviour ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Damage Scenarios ◽  
Damage Probability Matrices

A methodology for simulating seismic damage of unreinforced masonry buildings for seismic risk assessment of urban areas is presented in this paper. The methodology is based on the Italian vulnerability index and on the results of a post-earthquake damage survey study whose main result was an observed vulnerability function. The Monte Carlo method was then used to simulate damage probability matrices, fragility curves and vulnerability functions, all of which are the basis of a seismic risk study. The simulation process required the generation of thousands of hypothetical buildings, the analysis of their seismic behaviour and probabilistic studies of the computed results. As an example, probable damage scenarios were developed for an urban zone of Barcelona.

Quantitative Seismic Risk Assessment of Process Plants: State of the Art Review and Directions for Future Research

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio C. Caputo ◽  
Renato Giannini ◽  
Fabrizio Paolacci
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Industrial Sites ◽  
The Past ◽  
Process Plants

Earthquakes represent a class of Natural-Technical hazards which in the past has been responsible of major accidents and significant losses in many industrial sites. However, while codes and standards have been issued to design specific structures and equipment in the civil and industrial domain, established procedures for Quantitative Seismic Risk Assessment (QSRA) of process plants are not yet available. In this paper a critical review of seismic risk assessment methods applicable to process plants is carried out. Their limitations are highlighted and areas needing further research are identified.

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