scholarly journals Surveillance data confirm multiyear predictions of rotavirus dynamics in New York City

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (9) ◽  
pp. eaax0586
Author(s):  
Donald R. Olson ◽  
Benjamin A. Lopman ◽  
Kevin J. Konty ◽  
Robert W. Mathes ◽  
Vikki Papadouka ◽  
...  

Prediction skill is a key test of models for epidemic dynamics. However, future validation of models against out-of-sample data is rare, partly because of a lack of timely surveillance data. We address this gap by analyzing the response of rotavirus dynamics to infant vaccination. Syndromic surveillance of emergency department visits for diarrhea in New York City reveals a marked decline in diarrheal incidence among infants and young children, in line with data on rotavirus-coded hospitalizations and laboratory-confirmed cases, and a shift from annual to biennial epidemics increasingly affecting older children and adults. A published mechanistic model qualitatively predicted these patterns more than 2 years in advance. Future efforts to increase vaccination coverage may disrupt these patterns and lead to further declines in the incidence of rotavirus-attributable gastroenteritis.

2015 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen W. Wiewel ◽  
Sarah L. Braunstein ◽  
Qiang Xia ◽  
Colin W. Shepard ◽  
Lucia V. Torian

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter S. Tuckel ◽  
William Milczarski

Abstract Background In 2018, the most recent year for which data are available, dog bites ranked as the 13th leading cause of nonfatal emergency department visits in the United States. As dog ownership spirals upwards in the United States, it is important to continue to monitor the epidemiology of dog bite injuries. This study provides contemporary data on the incidence of dog bites injuries in the United States and in New York and profiles individuals who have been treated for dog bites in emergency departments. The study also examines the demographic correlates of the rate of injuries at the neighborhood level in New York City and maps the rate in each neighborhood. Methods At the national level, the study examines longitudinal data on dog bite injuries from 2005 to 2018 gathered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. For New York, the study analyzes data for 2005–2018 collected by the New York State Department of Health. A negative binomial regression analysis was performed on the state data to measure the simultaneous effects of demographic variables on the incidence of dog-related injuries. A thematically shaded map of the rate of dog bite injuries in New York City’s neighborhoods was created to identify neighborhoods with higher-than-average concentration of injuries. Results In both the United States and New York the rate of dog-bite injuries increased from 2005 to 2011 and then underwent a significant decline. Injuries due to dog bites, however, still remain a sizable public health problem. Injuries are more prevalent among school-age children, inhabitants of less-densely populated areas, and residents of poorer neighborhoods. In New York City, poorer neighborhoods are also associated with fewer dogs being spayed or neutered. Conclusions To reduce the rate of dog bite injuries, prevention programs – particularly those which center on teaching the dangers of canine interactions with humans – should be targeted at children. Dog bite injuries tend to be clustered in identifiable neighborhoods. Dog bite prevention programs and stricter enforcement of dog laws can target these neighborhoods.


10.2196/13086 ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. e13086
Author(s):  
Sarah L Braunstein ◽  
Karen Coeytaux ◽  
Charulata J Sabharwal ◽  
Qiang Xia ◽  
Rebekkah S Robbins ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 93 (2) ◽  
pp. 331-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly M. Doran ◽  
Ryan P. McCormack ◽  
Eileen L. Johns ◽  
Brendan G. Carr ◽  
Silas W. Smith ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 142 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. BALTER ◽  
J. H. STARK ◽  
J. KENNEDY ◽  
K. BORNSCHLEGEL ◽  
K. KONTY

SUMMARYHepatitis C virus is the most common chronic blood-borne infection in the USA. Based on results of a serosurvey, national prevalence is estimated to be 1·3% or 3·2 million people. Sub-national estimates are not available for most jurisdictions. Hepatitis C surveillance data was adjusted for death, out-migration, under-diagnosis, and undetectable blood RNA, to estimate prevalence in New York City (NYC). The prevalence of hepatitis C infection in adults aged ⩾20 years in NYC is 2·37% (range 1·53–4·90%) or 146 500 cases of hepatitis C. This analysis presents a mechanism for generating prevalence estimates using local surveillance data accounting for biases and difficulty in accessing hard to reach populations. As the cohort of patients with hepatitis C age and require additional medical care, local public health officials will need a method to generate prevalence estimates to allocate resources. This approach can serve as a guideline for generating local estimates using surveillance data that is less resource prohibitive.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah L Braunstein ◽  
Karen Coeytaux ◽  
Charulata J Sabharwal ◽  
Qiang Xia ◽  
Rebekkah S Robbins ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND HIV surveillance data can be used to improve patient outcomes. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to describe and present findings from the HIV care continuum dashboards (CCDs) initiative, which uses surveillance data to quantify and track outcomes for HIV patients at major clinical institutions in New York City. METHODS HIV surveillance data collected since 2011 were used to provide high-volume New York City clinical facilities with their performance on two key outcomes: linkage to care (LTC), among patients newly diagnosed with HIV and viral load suppression (VLS), among patients in HIV care. RESULTS The initiative included 21 facilities covering 33.78% (1135/3360) of new HIV diagnoses and 46.34% (28,405/61,298) of patients in HIV care in New York City in 2011 and was extended to a total of 47 sites covering 44.23% (1008/2279) of new diagnoses and 69.59% (43,897/63,083) of New York City patients in care in 2016. Since feedback of outcomes to providers began, aggregate LTC has improved by 1 percentage point and VLS by 16 percentage points. CONCLUSIONS Disseminating information on key facility–level HIV outcomes promotes collaboration between public health and the clinical community to end the HIV epidemic. Similar initiatives can be adopted by other jurisdictions with mature surveillance systems and supportive laws and policies.


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