Pharmacokinetic Modeling and Limited Sampling Strategies Based on Healthy Volunteers for Monitoring of Ertapenem in Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis

ABSTRACT Ertapenem is a broad-spectrum carbapenem antibiotic whose activity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis is being explored. Carbapenems have antibacterial activity when the plasma concentration exceeds the MIC at least 40% of the time (40% T MIC). To assess the 40% T MIC in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients, a limited sampling strategy was developed using a population pharmacokinetic model based on data for healthy volunteers. A two-compartment population pharmacokinetic model was developed with data for 42 healthy volunteers using an iterative two-stage Bayesian method. External validation was performed by Bayesian fitting of the model developed with data for volunteers to the data for individual MDR-TB patients (in which the fitted values of the area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h [AUC0–24, fit values] were used) using the population model developed for volunteers as a prior. A Monte Carlo simulation (n = 1,000) was used to evaluate limited sampling strategies. Additionally, the 40% T MIC with the free fraction (f 40% T MIC) of ertapenem in MDR-TB patients was estimated with the population pharmacokinetic model. The population pharmacokinetic model that was developed was shown to overestimate the area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h (AUC0–24) in MDR-TB patients by 6.8% (range, −17.2 to 30.7%). The best-performing limited sampling strategy, which had a time restriction of 0 to 6 h, was found to be sampling at 1 and 5 h (r 2 = 0.78, mean prediction error = −0.33%, root mean square error = 5.5%). Drug exposure was overestimated by a mean percentage of 4.2% (range, −15.2 to 23.6%). When a free fraction of 5% was considered and the MIC was set at 0.5 mg/liter, the minimum f 40% T MIC would have been exceeded in 9 out of 12 patients. A population pharmacokinetic model and limited sampling strategy, developed using data from healthy volunteers, were shown to be adequate to predict ertapenem exposure in MDR-TB patients.