scholarly journals Later is not necessarily better: limitations of survival analysis in studies of long-term drug treatment of psychiatric conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. bmjebm-2021-111743
Author(s):  
Joanna Moncrieff ◽  
Janus Christian Jakobsen ◽  
Max Bachmann

Survival analysis is routinely used to assess differences between groups in relapse prevention and treatment discontinuation studies involving people with long-term psychiatric conditions. The actual outcome in survival analysis is ‘time to event’, yet, in the mental health field, there has been little consideration of whether a temporary delay to relapse is clinically relevant in a condition that can last for decades. Moreover, in psychiatric drug trials, a pattern of elevated early relapses following randomisation to placebo or no treatment is common. This may be the result of the withdrawal of previous treatment leading to physiological withdrawal effects, which may be mistaken for relapse, or genuine relapse precipitated by the process of withdrawal. Such withdrawal effects typically produce converging survival curves eventually. They inevitably lead to differences in time to relapse, even when there is little or no difference in the cumulative risk of relapse at final follow-up. Therefore, statistical tests based on survival analyses can be misleading because they obscure these withdrawal effects. We illustrate these difficulties in a trial of antipsychotic reduction versus maintenance, and a trial of prophylactic esketamine in people with treatment-resistant depression. Both illustrate withdrawal-related effects that underline the importance of long-term follow-up and question the use of tests based on time to event. Further discussion of the most relevant outcome and appropriate approach to analysis, and research on patient and carer preferences is important to inform the design of future trials and interpretation of existing ones.

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L E Juarez-Orozco ◽  
J W Benjamins ◽  
T Maaniitty ◽  
A Saraste ◽  
P Van Der Harst ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Deep Learning (DL) is revolutionizing cardiovascular medicine through complex data-pattern recognition. In spite of its success in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD), DL implementation for prognostic evaluation of cardiovascular events is still limited. Traditional survival models (e.g.Cox) notably incorporate the effect of time-to-event but are unable to exploit complex non-liner dependencies between large numbers of predictors. On the other hand, DL hasn't systematically incorporated time-to-event for prognostic evaluations. Long-term registries of hybrid PET/CT imaging represent a suitable substrate for DL-based survival analysis due the large amount of time-dependent structured variables that they convey. Therefore, we sought to evaluate the feasibility and performance of DL Survival Analysis in predicting the occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI) and death in a long-term registry of cardiac hybrid PET/CT. Methods Data from our PET/CT registry of symptomatic patients with intermediate CAD risk who underwent sequential CT angiography and 15O-water PET for suspected ischemia, was analyzed. The sample has been followed for a 6-year average for MI or death. Ten clinical variables were extracted from electronic records including cardiovascular risk factors, dyspnea and early revascularization. CT angiography images were evaluated segmentally for: presence of plaque, % of luminal stenosis and calcification (58 variables). Absolute stress PET myocardial perfusion data was evaluated globally and regionally across vascular territories (4 variables). Cox-Nnet (a deep survival neural network) was implemented in a 5-fold cross-validated 80:20 split for training and testing. Resulting DL-hazard ratios were operationalized and compared to the observed events developed during follow-up. The performance of Cox-Nnet evaluating structured CT, PET/CT, and PET/CT+clinical variables was compared to expert interpretation (operationalized as: normal coronaries, non-obstructive CAD, obstructive CAD) and to Calcium Score (CaSc), through the concordance (c)-index. Results There were 426 men and 525 women with a mean age of 61±9 years-old. Twenty-four MI and 49 deaths occurred during follow-up (1 month–9.6 years), while 11.5% patients underwent early revascularization. Cox-Nnet evaluation of PET/CT data (c-index=0.75) outperformed categorical expert interpretation (c-index=0.54) and CaSc (c-index=0.65), while hybrid PET/CT and PET/CT+clinical (c-index=0.75) variables demonstrated incremental performance overall independent from early revascularization. Conclusion Deep Learning Survival Analysis is feasible in the evaluation of cardiovascular prognostic data. It might enhance the value of cardiac hybrid PET/CT imaging data for predicting the long-term development of myocardial infarction and death. Further research into the implementation of Deep Learning for prognostic analyses in CAD is warranted.


Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 2352-2352
Author(s):  
Tomas Jose Gonzalez-Lopez ◽  
Fernando Fernandez-Fuertes ◽  
Maria Cristina Pascual Izquierdo ◽  
Isabel Caparros ◽  
Silvia Bernat ◽  
...  

Background: Successful discontinuation of eltrombopag in certain immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) patients after complete response has already been demonstrated. However, the frequency of this phenomenon and type of candidate patients are still matter of discussion. Moreover, possibility of long term discontinuation responses is not clearly established. Methods: Here we retrospectively evaluated our whole cohort of 508 adult patients (aged 18 years or more) with primary ITP treated with eltrombopag included in the Spanish Eltrombopag Registry with a focus on the patients who achieved a durable (at least six months) platelet response after stopping eltrombopag. Successful discontinuation of eltrombopag (SDOE) was defined as those patients who reached remission and maintained platelet counts ≥ 50x109/l for at least 6 months in absence of eltrombopag or any rescue therapies administered. Long term discontinuation of eltrombopag (LTDOE) was defined as those patients who reached remission and maintained platelet counts ≥ 50x109/l for at least 36 months in the absence of eltrombopag or any rescue therapies administered. The study was approved by the Hospital Universitario de Burgos Ethics Committee and fulfilled Helsinki declaration standards. Results: While 37.4% of our patients relapsed of ITP with subsequent platelet count drop sometime during first six months of discontinuation of eltrombopag, a total of 74 patients (14.6%) were able to achieve SDOE. The median age of SDOE patients was 62 [range, 47-79] years. There were 47 women and 27 men. According to the standard definition, patients were allocated to newly diagnosed (n=17), persistent (n=15) and chronic (n=42) ITP groups. The median time from diagnosis to eltrombopag initiation was 31 [range, 4-104] months. The median number of previous therapies was 2 [range, 1-2], including splenectomy (14%), rituximab (18%) and romiplostim (12%). As expected, all patients but 1 achieved a complete response (platelet count ≥100 x 109/L) prior to eltrombopag discontinuation The median duration of eltrombopag treatment was 7 [range, 2-19] months. Reasons for eltrombopag discontinuation were: persistent response despite a reduction in dose over time (n=43), platelet count >400x109/L (n=16), aspartate aminotransferase elevation (n=5), diarrhea (n=4), thrombosis (n=3), patient's request (n=2) and other reasons (n=1). Analysis of these SDOE discontinued patients show that with a median follow-up of 55 [range, 29-79] months, 38 patients (51.3%) maintained treatment-free response 36 months after stopping eltrombopag with no need of additional ITP therapies (median time of eltrombopag discontinuation was 70 [range, 50-77] months).This condition is what we define now as LTDOE. Nevertheless, 36 patients relapsed beyond 6 months but before 36 months of eltrombopag discontinuation (median time of eltrombopag discontinuation was 10 [range,7 -22] months). Characteristics of LTDOE population were a median time since ITP diagnosis of 32 [range, 5-88] months with 15/38 patients having ITP <1 year. 9 patients (24%) were male and their median age was 50 [range, 37-64] years. They had received a median of only two previous treatment lines [range: 1-2 lines]. The median platelet count before starting eltrombopag was 19 x 109/L [range, 8-40]. Meanwhile, platelet count before eltrombopag stop was 218 x 109/L [range, 123-356]. The main characteristics (age, gender, duration of ITP, prior ITP lines, platelet count before starting eltrombopag, duration of eltrombopag treatment, and platelet count before eltrombopag withdrawal) of the 38 patients with LTDOE were compared with those of the SDOE cohort who did not achieve a LTDOE. Unfortunately, no predictive factors of LTDOE could be identified. Conclusion: Durable platelet response following eltrombopag cessation may be observed in only 15% of primary ITP patients treated with this drug. On the contrary, half of patients who achieve a sustained response after eltrombopag withdrawal will get a long term discontinuation. However, we are lacking predictor factors for successful and long-term discontinuation of eltrombopag in primary ITP. Disclosures Gonzalez-Lopez: Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; Novartis: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau. Pascual Izquierdo:Novartis: Consultancy; Sanofi: Consultancy. Sánchez-González:Amgen: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Gilead: Speakers Bureau; Navartis: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Shire: Speakers Bureau; Takeda: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau. Jarque:Takeda: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Shire: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Shionogi: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Servier: Speakers Bureau; Roche: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Pfizer: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Novartis: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; MSD: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Janssen: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Grifols: Consultancy; Gilead: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; CellTrion: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Amgen: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Abbie: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Alexion: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau.


2018 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 126-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grazia Rutigliano ◽  
Sergio Merlino ◽  
Amedeo Minichino ◽  
Rashmi Patel ◽  
Cathy Davies ◽  
...  

AbstractBackground:Acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD) are characterized by an acute onset and a remitting course, and overlap with subgroups of the clinical high-risk state for psychosis. The long-term course and outcomes of ATPD are not completely clear.Methods:Electronic health record-based retrospective cohort study, including all patients who received a first index diagnosis of ATPD (F23, ICD-10) within the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) National Health Service Trust, between 1 st April 2006 and 15th June 2017. The primary outcome was risk of developing persistent psychotic disorders, defined as the development of any ICD-10 diagnoses of non-organic psychotic disorders. Cumulative risk of psychosis onset was estimated through Kaplan-Meier failure functions (non-competing risks) and Greenwood confidence intervals.Results:A total of 3074 patients receiving a first index diagnosis of ATPD (F23, ICD-10) within SLaM were included. The mean follow-up was 1495 days. After 8-year, 1883 cases (61.26%) retained the index diagnosis of ATPD; the remaining developed psychosis. The cumulative incidence (Kaplan-Meier failure function) of risk of developing any ICD-10 non-organic psychotic disorder was 16.10% at 1-year (95%CI 14.83–17.47%), 28.41% at 2-year (95%CI 26.80–30.09%), 33.96% at 3-year (95% CI 32.25–35.75%), 36.85% at 4-year (95%CI 35.07–38.69%), 40.99% at 5-year (95% CI 39.12–42.92%), 42.58% at 6-year (95%CI 40.67–44.55%), 44.65% at 7-year (95% CI 42.66–46.69%), and 46.25% at 8-year (95% CI 44.17–48.37%). The cumulative risk of schizophrenia-spectrum disorder at 8-year was 36.14% (95% CI 34.09–38.27%).Conclusions:Individuals with ATPD have a very high risk of developing persistent psychotic disorders and may benefit from early detection and preventive treatments to improve their outcomes.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S271-S271
Author(s):  
J M Cha ◽  
S H Park ◽  
K H Rhee ◽  
S N Hong ◽  
Y H Kim ◽  
...  

Abstract Background No population-based study has evaluated the natural course of ulcerative colitis (UC) over three decades in non-Caucasians. We aimed to assess the long-term natural course of Korean patients with UC in a population-based cohort. Methods This Korean population-based SK-IBD cohort included all patients (N = 1013) newly diagnosed with UC during 1986–2015. Disease outcomes and their predictors were evaluated. Results During the median follow-up of 105 months, the overall use of systemic corticosteroids, thiopurines, and anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) agents was 40.8%, 13.9%, and 6.5%, respectively. Over time, the cumulative risk of commencing corticosteroids decreased, whereas that of commencing thiopurines and anti-TNF agents increased. During follow-up, 28.7% of 778 patients with proctitis or left-sided colitis at diagnosis experienced proximal disease extension. A total of 28 patients (2.8%) underwent colectomy, demonstrating cumulative risks of colectomy at 1, 5, 10, 20, and 30 years after diagnosis of 1.0%, 1.9%, 2.2%, 5.1%, and 6.4%, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that extensive colitis at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] 8.249, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.394–28.430), ever use of corticosteroids (HR 6.437, 95% CI 1.440–28.773), and diagnosis in the anti-TNF era (HR 0.224, 95% CI 0.057–0.886) were independent predictors of colectomy. The standardised mortality ratio in UC patients was 0.725 (95% CI 0.508–1.004). Conclusion Korean UC patients may have a better clinical course than Western patients, as indicated by a lower colectomy rate. The overall colectomy rate has continued to decrease over the past three decades.


2010 ◽  
Vol 162 (4) ◽  
pp. 779-785 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Giordano ◽  
E Marinazzo ◽  
R Berardelli ◽  
A Picu ◽  
M Maccario ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo evaluate long-term morphological, functional, and clinical outcome in adrenal incidentalomas.Design and methodsA total of 118 patients (77 F and 47 M; age 62.3±1.0 years) with adrenal incidentalomas were evaluated at baseline and followed-up for median 3 years (range 1–10 years) by clinical, biochemical, hormonal, and morphological evaluation. Among them, six patients with diagnosis of subclinical Cushing's syndrome (SCS) underwent surgery.ResultsAt entry, 86% (n=102) of tumors were nonfunctioning (NF) and 14% (n=16) showed SCS. Comparing NF with SCS patients, a significantly higher percentage of dyslipidemia was found in the group of SCS patients (50 vs 23%,P=0.033). During follow-up, adrenal function remained normal in all NF patients, none of them developed subclinical or overt endocrine disease. The cumulative risk of mass enlargement was globally low (25%), but progressive up to 8 years. SCS was confirmed in all patients, and none of them shifted to overt Cushing's syndrome. The cumulative risk of developing metabolic–cardiovascular abnormalities was globally low (22%), but progressive up to 8 years and new diseases were recorded in the group of NF patients only (three patients with dyslipidemia, four with impaired fasting glucose/impaired glucose tolerance, and three with diabetes mellitus). SCS patients who underwent surgery did not show any significant clinical improvement.ConclusionsThe risk of mass enlargement, hormonal, and metabolic impairment over time is globally low. Conservative management seems to be appropriate, but further prospective studies are needed to establish the long-term outcome of such patients, especially for metabolic status, cardiovascular risk profile and their relationship with endocrine function.


HPB ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. S402
Author(s):  
F. Chan ◽  
K.C. Cheng ◽  
Y.P. Yeung ◽  
K.M. Ho

Blood ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 106 (11) ◽  
pp. 5587-5587
Author(s):  
Francesca Sampogna ◽  
Marina Frontani ◽  
Giannandrea Baliva ◽  
Damiano Abeni ◽  
Giuseppe A. Lombardo ◽  
...  

Abstract We created a relational database of patients with cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL) to collect in a standardised fashion, anagraphic variables, clinical history, clinical, histological, haematological, and immunological information on CTCL patients hospitalised at IDI-IRCCS, Rome, Italy. At present, there are data on 424 patients, hospitalised from 1983 to July 2005. Active follow-up is performed yearly to ensure a standardised ascertainment of survival time. For deceased patients, the actual date of death (for all causes) is recorded, while surviving patients are censored at the date of last contact. The database includes 29 patients with Sezary syndrome (SS). Follow-up times ranged from 0 to 105 months. At first hospitalisation the median values of cells/mL were: white blood cells (WBC) 8750, neutrophils 4250, eosinophils 140, basophils 120, lymphocytes 2760, monocytes 500, CD3+ 2780, CD4+ 2431, CD8+ 192, CD19+ 96. Seventeen patients were deceased. We included in the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis only patients who were diagnosed before July 2004 (n=26). Median survival time from diagnosis was 52 months. No significant differences were observed in mortality for WBC (cutoff 9000 cells/uL), neutrophils (cutoff 4500 cells/uL), basophils (cutoff 200 cells/uL), lymphocytes (cutoff 3000 cells/uL), monocytes (cutoff 500 cells/uL), CD3+ (cutoff 2000 cells/uL), CD4+ (cutoff 2000 cells/uL), CD8+ (cutoff 200 cells/uL), CD19+ (cutoff 70 cells/uL). A lower survival was observed for patients with eosinophils &lt;200 cells/uL (p=.08). Survival in patients with SS does not seem to be influenced by haemathologic parameters. However, patients with long-term survival (&gt;90 months) are observed, and their characteristics should be further investigated. Survival analysis of 26 patients with Sézary syndrome, Rome, Italy, 1991–2004. Survival analysis of 26 patients with Sézary syndrome, Rome, Italy, 1991–2004.


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