scholarly journals Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in context: an international participatory approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
pp. e003126
Author(s):  
Ricardo Aguas ◽  
Lisa White ◽  
Nathaniel Hupert ◽  
Rima Shretta ◽  
Wirichada Pan-Ngum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Participatory Approach ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
History Of ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on multiple levels of society. Not only has the pandemic completely overwhelmed some health systems but it has also changed how scientific evidence is shared and increased the pace at which such evidence is published and consumed, by scientists, policymakers and the wider public. More significantly, the pandemic has created tremendous challenges for decision-makers, who have had to implement highly disruptive containment measures with very little empirical scientific evidence to support their decision-making process. Given this lack of data, predictive mathematical models have played an increasingly prominent role. In high-income countries, there is a long-standing history of established research groups advising policymakers, whereas a general lack of translational capacity has meant that mathematical models frequently remain inaccessible to policymakers in low-income and middle-income countries. Here, we describe a participatory approach to modelling that aims to circumvent this gap. Our approach involved the creation of an international group of infectious disease modellers and other public health experts, which culminated in the establishment of the COVID-19 Modelling (CoMo) Consortium. Here, we describe how the consortium was formed, the way it functions, the mathematical model used and, crucially, the high degree of engagement fostered between CoMo Consortium members and their respective local policymakers and ministries of health.

scholarly journals Changes in mobility and socioeconomic conditions during the COVID-19 outbreak

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Dueñas ◽  
Mercedes Campi ◽  
Luis E. Olmos
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Socioeconomic Conditions ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The City

AbstractSince the outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, governments have been implementing containment measures aimed at mitigating the spread of the virus, including restrictions to human mobility. The ability to adapt to the pandemic and respond to containment measures can be bound by socioeconomic conditions, which are heterogeneous in large urban areas of low-income and middle-income countries. In this paper, we analyse mobility changes following the implementation of containment measures in Bogotá, Colombia. We characterise the mobility network before and during the pandemic and analyse its evolution and changes between January and July 2020. We observe a general reduction in mobility trends, but the overall connectivity between different areas of the city remains after the lockdown, reflecting the resilience of the mobility network. Then, we estimate a gravity model to assess the effect of socioeconomic conditions on mobility flows. We find that the responses to lockdown policies depend on the socioeconomic conditions of the population. Before the pandemic, the population with better socioeconomic conditions shows higher mobility flows. Since the lockdown, mobility presents a general decrease, but the population with worse socioeconomic conditions shows lower reductions in mobility flows. We conclude by deriving policy implications.

scholarly journals Prevalence of MDR organism (MDRO) carriage in children and their household members in Siem Reap Province, Cambodia

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shweta R Singh ◽  
Bunsoth Mao ◽  
Konstantin Evdokimov ◽  
Pisey Tan ◽  
Phana Leab ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Final Analysis ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Siem Reap ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
History Of

Abstract Background The rising incidence of infections caused by MDR organisms (MDROs) poses a significant public health threat. However, little has been reported regarding community MDRO carriage in low- and middle-income countries. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study in Siem Reap, Cambodia comparing hospital-associated households, in which an index child (age: 2–14 years) had been hospitalized for at least 48 h in the preceding 2–4 weeks, with matched community households on the same street, in which no other child had a recent history of hospitalization. Participants were interviewed using a survey questionnaire and tested for carriage of MRSA, ESBL-producing Enterobacterales (ESBL-E) and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) by culture followed by antibiotic susceptibility testing. We used logistic regression analysis to analyse associations between collected variables and MDRO carriage. Results Forty-two pairs of households including 376 participants with 376 nasal swabs and 290 stool specimens were included in final analysis. MRSA was isolated from 26 specimens (6.9%). ESBL-producing Escherichia coli was detected in 269 specimens (92.8%) whereas ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae was isolated from 128 specimens (44.1%), of which 123 (42.4%) were co-colonized with ESBL-producing E. coli. Six (2.1%) specimens tested positive for CPE (4 E. coli and 2 K. pneumoniae). The prevalence ratios for MRSA, ESBL-producing E. coli and ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae carriage did not differ significantly in hospital-associated households and hospitalized children compared with their counterparts. Conclusions The high prevalence of ESBL-E across both household types suggests that MDRO reservoirs are common in the community. Ongoing genomic analyses will help to understand the epidemiology and course of MDRO spread.

scholarly journals Tuberculosis and Non-Communicable Disease Multimorbidity: An Analysis of the World Health Survey in 48 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2439
Author(s):  
Brendon Stubbs ◽  
Kamran Siddiqi ◽  
Helen Elsey ◽  
Najma Siddiqi ◽  
Ruimin Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Survey ◽  
Low Income ◽  
World Health ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
World Health Survey ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
Low And Middle Income

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). TB multimorbidity [TB and ≥1 non-communicable diseases (NCDs)] is common, but studies are sparse. Cross-sectional, community-based data including adults from 21 low-income countries and 27 middle-income countries were utilized from the World Health Survey. Associations between 9 NCDs and TB were assessed with multivariable logistic regression analysis. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated using disability weights provided by the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study. Eight out of 9 NCDs (all except visual impairment) were associated with TB (odds ratio (OR) ranging from 1.38–4.0). Prevalence of self-reported TB increased linearly with increasing numbers of NCDs. Compared to those with no NCDs, those who had 1, 2, 3, 4, and ≥5 NCDs had 2.61 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.14–3.22), 4.71 (95%CI = 3.67–6.11), 6.96 (95%CI = 4.95–9.87), 10.59 (95%CI = 7.10–15.80), and 19.89 (95%CI = 11.13–35.52) times higher odds for TB. Among those with TB, the most prevalent combinations of NCDs were angina and depression, followed by angina and arthritis. For people with TB, the YLDs were three times higher than in people without multimorbidity or TB, and a third of the YLDs were attributable to NCDs. Urgent research to understand, prevent and manage NCDs in people with TB in LMICs is needed.

scholarly journals Gestational weight gain in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling analysis using nationally representative data

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. e003423
Author(s):  
Dongqing Wang ◽  
Molin Wang ◽  
Anne Marie Darling ◽  
Nandita Perumal ◽  
Enju Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weight Gain ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Gestational Weight ◽  
Latin America And Caribbean ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Sub Saharan

IntroductionGestational weight gain (GWG) has important implications for maternal and child health and is an ideal modifiable factor for preconceptional and antenatal care. However, the average levels of GWG across all low-income and middle-income countries of the world have not been characterised using nationally representative data.MethodsGWG estimates across time were computed using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys Program. A hierarchical model was developed to estimate the mean total GWG in the year 2015 for all countries to facilitate cross-country comparison. Year and country-level covariates were used as predictors, and variable selection was guided by the model fit. The final model included year (restricted cubic splines), geographical super-region (as defined by the Global Burden of Disease Study), mean adult female body mass index, gross domestic product per capita and total fertility rate. Uncertainty ranges (URs) were generated using non-parametric bootstrapping and a multiple imputation approach. Estimates were also computed for each super-region and region.ResultsLatin America and Caribbean (11.80 kg (95% UR: 6.18, 17.41)) and Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia (11.19 kg (95% UR: 6.16, 16.21)) were the super-regions with the highest GWG estimates in 2015. Sub-Saharan Africa (6.64 kg (95% UR: 3.39, 9.88)) and North Africa and Middle East (6.80 kg (95% UR: 3.17, 10.43)) were the super-regions with the lowest estimates in 2015. With the exception of Latin America and Caribbean, all super-regions were below the minimum GWG recommendation for normal-weight women, with Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa and Middle East estimated to meet less than 60% of the minimum recommendation.ConclusionThe levels of GWG are inadequate in most low-income and middle-income countries and regions. Longitudinal monitoring systems and population-based interventions are crucial to combat inadequate GWG in low-income and middle-income countries.

scholarly journals Urgent needs of low-income and middle-income countries for COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics

The Lancet ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 397 (10274) ◽  
pp. 562-564
Author(s):  
J Peter Figueroa ◽  
Maria Elena Bottazzi ◽  
Peter Hotez ◽  
Carolina Batista ◽  
Onder Ergonul ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document