Syncope in the emergency department of a large northern Italian hospital: incidence, efficacy of a short-stay observation ward and validation of the OESIL risk score

Abstract Background: The burden of sepsis represents a global health care problem. We aimed to assess the case fatality rate (CFR) and its predictors in subjects with sepsis admitted to a general Italian hospital from 2009 to 2016, stratified by risk score.Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of all sepsis-related hospitalizations after Emergency Department (ED) visit in a public Italian hospital in an 8-year period. A risk score to predict CFR was computed by logistic regression analysis of selected variables in a training set (2009-2012), and then confirmed in the whole study population. A trend analysis of CFR during the study period was performed dividing patient as high-risk (upper tertile of risk score) or low-risk . Results: 2,492 subjects were included. Over time the incidental admission rate (no. of sepsis-related admissions per 100 total admissions) increased from 4.1% (2009-2010) to 5.4% (2015-2016); P<0.001, accompanied by a reduced CFR (from 38.0% to 18.4%; P<0.001). A group of 10 variables (admission in intensive care unit, cardio-vascular dysfunction, HIV infection, diabetes, age ≥80 years, respiratory diseases, number of organ dysfunction, digestive diseases, dementia and cancer) were selected by the logistic model to predict CFR with good accuracy: AUC 0.873 [0.009]. Along the years CFR decreased from 31.8% (2009-2010) to 25.0% (2015-2016); P = 0.007. The relative proportion of subjects ≥80 years (overall, 52.9% of cases) and classified as high-risk did not change along the years. CFR decreased only in low-risk subjects (from 13.3% to 5.2%; P<0.001), and particularly in those aged ≥80 (from 18.2% to 6.6%; P=0.003), but not in high-risk individuals (from 69.9% to 64.2%; P=0.713). Conclusion: Between 2009 and 2016 the incidence of sepsis-related hospitalization increased in a general Italian hospital, with a downward trend in CFR, only limited to low-risk patients and particularly to subjects ≥80 years.

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Old subjects with sepsis: trend analysis of case fatality rate in the Emergency Department

10.21203/rs.2.12971/v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Andrea Fabbri ◽

Giulio Marchesini ◽

Barbara Benazzi ◽

Alice Morelli ◽

Danilo Montesi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Emergency Department ◽

High Risk ◽

Trend Analysis ◽

Risk Score ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Relative Proportion ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Low Risk ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Italian Hospital

Abstract Background The burden of sepsis represents a global health care problem. We aimed to assess the case fatality rate (CFR) and its predictors in subjects with sepsis admitted to a general Italian hospital from 2009 to 2016, stratified by risk score. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of all sepsis-related hospitalizations after Emergency Department (ED) visit in a public Italian hospital in an 8-year period. A risk score to predict CFR was computed by logistic regression analysis of selected variables in a training set (2009-2012), and then confirmed in the whole study population. A trend analysis of CFR during the study period was performed dividing patient as high-risk (upper tertile of risk score) or low-risk . Results 2,492 subjects were included. Over time the incidental admission rate (no. of sepsis-related admissions per 100 total admissions) increased from 4.1% (2009-2010) to 5.4% (2015-2016); P<0.001, accompanied by a reduced CFR (from 38.0% to 18.4%; P<0.001). A group of 10 variables (admission in intensive care unit, cardio-vascular dysfunction, HIV infection, diabetes, age ≥80 years, respiratory diseases, number of organ dysfunction, digestive diseases, dementia and cancer) were selected by the logistic model to predict CFR with good accuracy: AUC 0.873 [0.009]. Along the years CFR decreased from 31.8% (2009-2010) to 25.0% (2015-2016); P = 0.007. The relative proportion of subjects ≥80 years (overall, 52.9% of cases) and classified as high-risk did not change along the years. CFR decreased only in low-risk subjects (from 13.3% to 5.2%; P<0.001), and particularly in those aged ≥80 (from 18.2% to 6.6%; P=0.003), but not in high-risk individuals (from 69.9% to 64.2%; P=0.713). Conclusion Between 2009 and 2016 the incidence of sepsis-related hospitalization increased in a general Italian hospital, with a downward trend in CFR, only limited to low-risk patients and particularly to subjects ≥80 years.

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Old subjects with sepsis in the emergency department: trend analysis of case fatality rate

BMC Geriatrics ◽

10.1186/s12877-019-1384-8 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Andrea Fabbri ◽

Giulio Marchesini ◽

Barbara Benazzi ◽

Alice Morelli ◽

Danilo Montesi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Emergency Department ◽

High Risk ◽

Trend Analysis ◽

Risk Score ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Relative Proportion ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Low Risk ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Italian Hospital

Abstract Background The burden of sepsis represents a global health care problem. We aimed to assess the case fatality rate (CFR) and its predictors in subjects with sepsis admitted to a general Italian hospital from 2009 to 2016, stratified by risk score. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of all sepsis-related hospitalizations after Emergency Department (ED) visit in a public Italian hospital in an 8-year period. A risk score to predict CFR was computed by logistic regression analysis of selected variables in a training set (2009–2012), and then confirmed in the whole study population. A trend analysis of CFR during the study period was performed dividing patient as high-risk (upper tertile of risk score) or low-risk. Results Two thousand four hundred ninety-two subjects were included. Over time the incidental admission rate (no. of sepsis-related admissions per 100 total admissions) increased from 4.1% (2009–2010) to 5.4% (2015–2016); P < 0.001, accompanied by a reduced CFR (from 38.0 to 18.4%; P < 0.001). A group of 10 variables (admission to intensive care unit, cardio-vascular dysfunction, HIV infection, diabetes, age ≥ 80 years, respiratory diseases, number of organ dysfunction, digestive diseases, dementia and cancer) were selected by the logistic model to predict CFR with good accuracy: AUC 0.873 [0.009]. Along the years CFR decreased from 31.8% (2009–2010) to 25.0% (2015–2016); P = 0.007. The relative proportion of subjects ≥80 years (overall, 52.9% of cases) and classified as high-risk did not change along the years. CFR decreased only in low-risk subjects (from 13.3 to 5.2%; P < 0.001), and particularly in those aged ≥80 (from 18.2 to 6.6%; P = 0.003), but not in high-risk individuals (from 69.9 to 64.2%; P = 0.713). Conclusion Between 2009 and 2016 the incidence of sepsis-related hospitalization increased in a general Italian hospital, with a downward trend in CFR, only limited to low-risk patients and particularly to subjects ≥80 years.

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Faculty Opinions recommendation of Multimarker strategy for short-term risk assessment in patients with dyspnea in the emergency department: the MARKED (Multi mARKer Emergency Dyspnea)-risk score.

Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature ◽

10.3410/f.717961622.793464393 ◽

2012 ◽

Author(s):

Gad Cotter ◽

Olga Milo

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Emergency Department ◽

Risk Score ◽

Short Term

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Mortality risk prediction in lupus patients complicated with invasive infection in the emergency department: LUPHAS score

Therapeutic Advances in Musculoskeletal Disease ◽

10.1177/1759720x19885559 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 ◽

pp. 1759720X1988555 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Wanlong Wu ◽

Jun Ma ◽

Yuhong Zhou ◽

Chao Tang ◽

Feng Zhao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Emergency Department ◽

Prediction Model ◽

Risk Score ◽

Roc Curve ◽

Curve Analysis ◽

Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽

Invasive Infection ◽

Roc Curve Analysis ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Qsofa Score

Background: Infection remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This study aimed to establish a clinical prediction model for the 3-month all-cause mortality of invasive infection events in patients with SLE in the emergency department. Methods: SLE patients complicated with invasive infection admitted into the emergency department were included in this study. Patient’s demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics on admission were retrospectively collected as baseline data and compared between the deceased and the survivors. Independent predictors were identified by multivariable logistic regression analysis. A prediction model for all-cause mortality was established and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: A total of 130 eligible patients were collected with a cumulative 38.5% 3-month mortality. Lymphocyte count <800/ul, urea >7.6mmol/l, maximum prednisone dose in the past ⩾60 mg/d, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, and age at baseline were independent predictors for all-cause mortality (LUPHAS). In contrast, a history of hydroxychloroquine use was protective. In a combined, odds ratio-weighted LUPHAS scoring system (score 3–22), patients were categorized to three groups: low-risk (score 3–9), medium-risk (score 10–15), and high-risk (score 16–22), with mortalities of 4.9% (2/41), 45.9% (28/61), and 78.3% (18/23) respectively. ROC curve analysis indicated that a LUPHAS score could effectively predict all-cause mortality [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.86, CI 95% 0.79–0.92]. In addition, LUPHAS score performed better than the qSOFA score alone (AUC = 0.69, CI 95% 0.59–0.78), or CURB-65 score (AUC = 0.69, CI 95% 0.59–0.80) in the subgroup of lung infections ( n = 108). Conclusions: Based on a large emergency cohort of lupus patients complicated with invasive infection, the LUPHAS score was established to predict the short-term all-cause mortality, which could be a promising applicable tool for risk stratification in clinical practice.

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Skor prediksi sindrom disfungsi multi-organ pada pasien multitrauma

JURNAL BIOMEDIK (JBM) ◽

10.35790/jbm.8.2.2016.12669 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Leo Rendy ◽

Heber B. Sapan ◽

Laurens T. B. Kalesaran ◽

Julius H. Lolombulan

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Emergency Department ◽

Injury Severity Score ◽

Sequential Organ Failure Assessment ◽

Organ Failure ◽

Risk Score ◽

Severity Score ◽

Injury Severity ◽

Failure Assessment ◽

The Mean

Abstract: Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) in patients with major trauma remains to be frequent and devastating complication during clinical course in emergency department and intensive care unit (ICU). The ability to easily and accurately identify patients at risk for MODS postinjury especially in multitrauma cases would be very valuable. This study aimed to construct an instrument for prediction of the development of MODS in adult multitrauma patients using clinical and laboratory data available in the first day at prahospital and emergency department (hospital) setting. This was a prospective study. Samples were adult multitrauma patients with Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥16, aged 16-65 years old, admitted to 4 academic Level-I trauma center from September 2014 to September 2015. Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score was used to determine MODS during hospitalization. A risk score created from the final regression model consisted of significant variables as MODS predictor. The results showed that there were 98 multitrauma patients as samples. The mean age was 35.2 years old; mostly male (85.71%); the mean of ISS was 23.6; mostly (76.53%) were caused by blunt injury mechanism. MODS was encountered in 43 patients (43.87%). The prediction risk score consists of Revised Trauma Score (RTS) (<7.25) and serum lactate level ≥2 mmol/L. This study also verified several independent risk factors for post multitrauma MODS, such as ISS >25, presence of SIRS, shock grade 2 or more, and white blood cell count >12,000/mm3. Conclusion: We derived a novel, simple, and applicable instrument to predict MODS in adult following multitrauma. The use of this scoring system may allow early identification of multitrauma patients who are at risk for MODS and result in more aggressive targeted resuscitation and better referral allocation based on regional trauma system.Keywords: MODS, multitrauma, emergency department, MODS prediction scoreAbstrak: Sindrom disfungsi multi-organ (MODS) merupakan komplikasi buruk yang sering terjadi sepanjang perjalanan klinis pasien trauma mayor di Unit Gawat Darurat (UGD) maupun di ruang perawatan intensif. Suatu nilai patokan yang dapat memprediksi MODS pascatrauma secara akurat sejak dini tentunya sangat berharga bagi tatalaksana pasien terutama pada kasus multitrauma. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membuat suatu instrumen yang dapat memrediksi perkembangan MODS pada pasien dewasa multitrauma dengan menggunakan data klinis dan laboratorium yang tersedia pada 24 jam pertama pasca trauma pada seting fase prahospital maupun di fase hospital sejak di UGD. Jenis penelitian ini prospektif, mengumpulkan pasien multitrauma dengan Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥16, rentang usia 16-65 tahun, di 4 pusat trauma level-1 rumah sakit pendidikan selama 1 tahun (September 2014-2015). Dilakukan pencatatan data klinis dan laboratorium sesuai perkembangan pasien. Skor sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) digunakan untuk menentukan adanya MODS selama perawatan. Skor prediksi dibuat dengan membangun model regresi logistik yang signifikan untuk memrediksi terjadinya MODS pasca multitrauma. Hasil penelitian mendapatkan 98 sampel multitrauma yang memenuhi kriteria inklusi dengan rerata usia 35,2 tahun, sebagian besar laki-laki (85,71%) dengan rerata ISS 23,6, dan disebabkan oleh trauma tumpul (76,53%). MODS terjadi pada 43 pasien (43,87%). Skor prediksi terdiri dari RTS dengan (cut off point 7,25) dan kadar laktat serum (cut off point 3,44 mmol/mL). Penelitian ini juga memverifikasi beberapa faktor risiko individual terjadinya MODS pasca multitrauma yaitu ISS>25, adanya SIRS, syok derajat 2 atau lebih, dan leukositosis >12.000. Simpulan: Kami melaporkan instrumen baru yang praktis untuk memrediksi MODS pada pasien multitrauma dewasa. Skor ini memungkinkan identifikasi dini pasien trauma yang berisiko akan mengalami MODS sehingga dapat menjadi tanda alarm dilakukannya resusitasi yang lebih agresif dan tepat serta alokasi rujukan pasien yang lebih efisien berdasarkan sistem trauma regional.Kata kunci: MODS, multitrauma, UGD, skor prediksi MODS

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