scholarly journals P1-177 Development and evaluation of a forecasting model for infectious diseases in Japan using time-series analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 65 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. A115-A115
Author(s):  
M. Inoue ◽  
S. Hasegawa ◽  
A. Suyama
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Series Analysis

scholarly journals Community-based testing of migrants for infectious diseases (COMBAT-ID): impact, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of identifying infectious diseases among migrants in primary care: protocol for an interrupted time-series, qualitative and health economic analysis

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. e029188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manish Pareek ◽  
Helen C Eborall ◽  
Fatimah Wobi ◽  
Kate S Ellis ◽  
Evangelos Kontopantelis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Hepatitis B ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis

BackgroundMigration is a major global driver of population change. Certain migrants may be at increased risk of infectious diseases, including tuberculosis (TB), HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C, and have poorer outcomes. Early diagnosis and management of these infections can reduce morbidity, mortality and onward transmission and is supported by national guidelines. To date, screening initiatives have been sporadic and focused on individual diseases; systematic routine testing of migrant groups for multiple infections is rarely undertaken and its impact is unknown. We describe the protocol for the evaluation of acceptability, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an integrated approach to screening migrants for a range of infectious diseases in primary care.Methods and analysisWe will conduct a mixed-methods study which includes an observational cohort with interrupted time-series analysis before and after the introduction of routine screening of migrants for infectious diseases (latent TB, HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C) when first registering with primary care within Leicester, UK. We will assess trends in the monthly number and rate of testing and diagnosis for latent TB, HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C to determine the effect of the policy change using segmented regression analyses at monthly time-points. Concurrently, we will undertake an integrated qualitative sub-study to understand the views of migrants and healthcare professionals to the new testing policy in primary care. Finally, we will evaluate the cost-effectiveness of combined infection testing for migrants in primary care.Ethics and disseminationThe study has received HRA and NHS approvals for both the interrupted time-series analysis (16/SC/0127) and the qualitative sub-study (16/EM/0159). For the interrupted time-series analysis we will only use fully anonymised data. For the qualitative sub-study, we will gain written, informed, consent. Dissemination of the results will be through local and national meetings/conferences as well as publications in peer-reviewed journals.

A Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Model in Dam Safety Monitoring

2013 ◽  
Vol 756-759 ◽  
pp. 589-593
Author(s):  
Rui Lian Hou ◽  
Hu Gao ◽  
Hui Li
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Safety Monitoring ◽  
Measured Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Dam Safety ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Dam Safety Monitoring ◽  
Forecast Data

Based on the new time series analysis and the theory of dam safety, this paper proposed a new forecasting model in dam safety monitoring. First the paper introduced basic method of flat forecast and described its algorithm routine, and explained what is time series. Second the model structure of monitoring system based on time series analysis was given through the analysis of the method. The system can provide the comparison chart of the measured data, forecast data and trends. At last the model was realized based on VB and tested by the actual data. Experimental results show that this forecasting model has better prediction results in dam safety monitoring.

A Study on Surface Evaporation in Liaoyang Based on Grey Theory

2014 ◽  
Vol 675-677 ◽  
pp. 875-879
Author(s):  
Jin Liang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Visual Basic ◽  
Liaoning Province ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Grey Theory ◽  
Surface Evaporation ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Grey Forecasting

At present, there are mainly two methods to forecast the quantity of surface evaporation: one is by time series analysis, another is by climate models. This paper established models to simulate the surface evaporation in Liaoyang based on grey theory, and developed a grey forecasting software for surface evaporation using Visual Basic. From the annual depreciation from 1998 to 2010 in Liaoyang station in Liaoning Province, a grey forecasting model was established, which was then used to predict the quantity of surface evaporation in Liaoyang from 2011 to 2015.

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