Development and Performance Analysis of Fireworks Algorithm-Trained Artificial Neural Network (FWANN)

Financial time series are highly nonlinear and their movement is quite unpredictable. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have ample applications in financial forecasting. Performance of ANN models mainly depends upon its training. Though gradient descent-based methods are common for ANN training, they have several limitations. Fireworks algorithm (FWA) is a recently developed metaheuristic inspired from the phenomenon of fireworks explosion at night, which poses characteristics such as faster convergence, parallelism, and finding the global optima. This chapter intends to develop a hybrid model comprising FWA and ANN (FWANN) used to forecast closing prices series, exchange series, and crude oil prices time series. The appropriateness of FWANN is compared with models such as PSO-based ANN, GA-based ANN, DE-based ANN, and MLP model trained similarly. Four performance metrics, MAPE, NMSE, ARV, and R2, are considered as the barometer for evaluation. Performance analysis is carried out to show the suitability and superiority of FWANN.

Hybrid Bare Bones Fireworks Algorithm for Load Flow Analysis of Islanded Microgrids

In this chapter, a hybrid bare bones fireworks algorithm (HBBFWA) is proposed and its application in solving the load flow problem of islanded microgrid is demonstrated. The hybridization is carried out by updating the positions of generated sparks with the help of grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA) mimicking the swarming behavior of grasshoppers. The purpose of incorporating GOA with bare bones fireworks algorithm (BBFWA) is to enhance the global searching capability of conventional BBFWA for complex optimization problems. The proposed HBBFWA is applied to perform the load flow analysis of a modified IEEE 37-Bus system. The performance of the proposed HBBFWA is compared against the performance of BBFWA in terms of computational time, convergence speed, and number of iterations required for convergence of the load flow problem. Moreover, standard statistical analysis test such as the independent sample t-test is conducted to identify statistically significant differences between the two algorithms.

Short-Term Load Forecasting of Distributed Energy System Based on Kernel Principal Component Analysis and KELM Optimized by Fireworks Algorithm

Accurate and stable load forecasting has great significance to ensure the safe operation of distributed energy system. For the purpose of improving the accuracy and stability of distributed energy system load forecasting, a forecasting model in view of kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) and fireworks algorithm (FWA) is proposed. First, KPCA modal is used to reduce the dimension of the feature, thus redundant input samples are merged. Next, FWA is employed to optimize the parameters C and σ of KELM. Lastly, the load forecasting modal of KPCA-FWA-KELM is established. The relevant data of a distributed energy system in Beijing, China, is selected for training test to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the new hybrid KPCA-FWA-KELM method has superior performance, robustness and versatility in load prediction of distributed energy systems.