scholarly journals Illicit tobacco trade in Georgia: prevalence and perceptions

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Suppl 4) ◽  
pp. s227-s233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan Little ◽  
Hana Ross ◽  
George Bakhturidze ◽  
Iago Kachkachishvili
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Tobacco Consumption ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Tobacco Taxes ◽  
Tobacco Tax ◽  
Illicit Tobacco Trade ◽  
Multistage Sampling ◽  
Cigarette Packs

BackgroundIn lower-income and middle-income countries, limited research exists on illicit tobacco trade and its responsiveness to taxation. Tobacco taxes are critical in reducing tobacco consumption, thereby improving public health. However, the tobacco industry claims that tax increases will increase illicit tobacco trade. Therefore, research evidence on the size of the illicit cigarette market is needed in Georgia and other low-income and middle-income countries to inform tobacco tax policies.MethodsIn 2017, a household survey using stratified multistage sampling was conducted in Georgia with 2997 smokers, to assess illicit tobacco consumption. Smokers were asked to show available cigarette packs to the surveyors. These were examined for tax stamps and health warnings which allowed for an assessment of illegal cigarette consumption in Georgia.FindingsThe packs shown to surveyors suggest illicit cigarette trade is low (1.5%), although with regional differences, as illicit cigarette packs were present in 6% of the households in Zugdidi. Most illicit cigarettes were purchased at kiosks or informal outlets. This estimate might be conservative, as 28% of respondents did not show any packs to the surveyors.ConclusionsDespite recent tobacco tax increases, illicit cigarette trade in Georgia seems to be negligible. The market is more vulnerable to illicit cigarette trade close to the border with Abkhazia (near Zugdidi). Tighter control or ban of tobacco sales at kiosks and informal outlets may reduce illicit cigarette trade. Further investigation is planned to better understand why a large proportion of survey participants said they had no pack available at home.

scholarly journals Tobacco price elasticity in Serbia: evidence from a middle-income country with high prevalence and low tobacco prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (Suppl 5) ◽  
pp. s331-s336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Vladisavljevic ◽  
Jovan Zubović ◽  
Mihajlo Đukić ◽  
Olivera Jovanović
Keyword(s):  
Price Elasticity ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Tobacco Consumption ◽  
Reliable Estimate ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Tobacco Taxes ◽  
Tobacco Tax ◽  
High Prevalence

In this paper, we use Deaton’s demand model and Household Budget Survey data from 2006 to 2017 to provide a first robust and reliable estimate of cigarettes price elasticity for Serbia. The case of Serbia is particularly interesting and important as it provides evidence for a country in which tobacco market is characterised by the high tobacco consumption, low prices and large perceived impact of multinational tobacco companies on public revenues, export and employment, given their considerable cigarette production in Serbia. The price elasticity of cigarettes is estimated at −0.639, in line with the previous estimates for the low-income and middle-income countries. Estimated negative cigarettes price elasticity for Serbia suggests that tobacco tax policy could be used effectively to reduce cigarette consumption in Serbia, which could lower the harmful health effects of cigarettes. Furthermore, a calculation based on the estimated elasticity suggests that increasing tobacco taxes could also have positive fiscal effects, as the expected revenue from the taxes would increase.

scholarly journals Price, Income, and Affordability as the Determinants of Tobacco Consumption: A Practitioner’s Guide to Tobacco Taxation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigar Nargis ◽  
Michal Stoklosa ◽  
Ce Shang ◽  
Jeffrey Drope
Keyword(s):  
Price Elasticity ◽  
Tobacco Consumption ◽  
High Income ◽  
Cigarette Consumption ◽  
Tobacco Products ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Tobacco Tax ◽  
Tobacco Taxation

Abstract Introduction Tobacco product prices and consumers’ income are the two major economic determinants of tobacco demand. The affordability of tobacco products is dependent on the price of tobacco products relative to consumer income. Increase in tobacco tax is expected to lead to higher price, lower affordability, and reduced consumption. Price elasticity and affordability elasticity are used in analyzing the effect of tobacco tax increases on tobacco consumption and public health. The availability of both parameters raises the question of which one to apply in policy discussions. Aims and Methods Using global data on cigarette consumption, price, income, and tobacco control measures for 169 countries over 2007–2016, this study estimated the price elasticity and affordability elasticity of cigarette consumption by country income classification using country-specific fixed effects model for panel data. Results The estimates show that the restriction of equal strength of the effects of price and income changes on tobacco consumption maintained in affordability elasticity estimation is valid for low- and middle-income countries, while it is rejected for high-income countries. Conclusions Affordability elasticity may prove to be a useful parameter to explain and predict the sensitivity of consumers to tobacco tax and price policy changes under conditions of robust economic growth, which are more likely to be observed in countries with initial low- or middle-income setting. It can provide a reasonable benchmark for tobacco tax and price increase necessary to effectively reduce affordability and consumption of tobacco, which can form a basis for building systematic tax and price increases into the tobacco tax policy mechanism. Implications Price elasticity measures the sensitivity of consumers to changes in real prices, holding real income constant. Affordability elasticity measures the sensitivity of consumers to price changes adjusted for inflation and income changes. Existing scientific literature on tobacco demand abounds in both price and affordability elasticity estimates, without providing a clear explanation of the theoretical and policy implications of using one parameter over the other. By estimating and comparing price and affordability elasticities for high-income and low-and-middle-income countries separately, this article offers a guide to the practitioners in tobacco taxation for evaluating the effectiveness of tax-induced price increases on tobacco consumption.

scholarly journals Association of Undernutrition and Neonatal, Infant and Under-5 Mortality: Evidence from 62 Low-Income and Middle-Income Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 911-911
Author(s):  
Paddy Ssentongo ◽  
Joseph Lewcun ◽  
Anna Ssentongo ◽  
Djibril Ba ◽  
Claudio Fronterre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Neonatal Mortality ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Nationally Representative

Abstract Objectives During the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) era, many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) failed to achieve the MDG 4 of reducing neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality. In this study, we aimed to assess whether reductions in early childhood undernutrition is associated with a reduction in neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality rate in LMICs. Methods We analyzed demographic and health household survey data from 62 LMICs collected between 2006 and 2018. The sample consisted of nationally representative cross-sectional surveys of children aged 0–59 months (n = 600,390). We examined country-level prevalence of stunting, wasting and underweight (based on z scores < −2 per the WHO Growth Standard) each as predictors of neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality incidence using multivariate Poisson regression models adjusted for country-level mean duration of breastfeeding and gross domestic product per capita. We also examined the association between breastfeeding and mortality. Results Overall, 28.4% (95% CI: 26.3%, 30.7%) of young children were stunted, 5.4% (95% CI: 4.5%, 6.6%) were wasted, 12.3% (95% CI: 10.4%, 14.6%) were underweight. Per 1000 live births, neonatal mortality was 23.6 (95% CI: 19.3–27.1), infant mortality was 43.4 (95% CI: 30.2–50.1) and under-5 mortality was 61.6 (95% CI: 55.3- 68.3). At the country level, a 10-fold decrease in stunting was associated with a relative risk (RR) of 0.81 (95% CI 0.66–0.98; P < 0.001) for neonatal mortality, 0.66 (95% CI 0.55–0.80; P < 0.001) for infant mortality, and 0.63 (95% CI 0.52–0.76; P < 0.001) for under-5 mortality. No association was seen between wasting or underweight and child mortality. Breastfeeding was associated with lower rates of child mortality. A one standard deviation (16 months) increase in breastfeeding was associated with a RR of 0.86 (95% CI 0.76–0.97; P = 0.015) for neonatal mortality, 0.79 (95% CI 0.70–0.89; P < 0.001) for infant mortality, and 0.75 (95% CI 0.67–0.85; P < 0.001) for under-5 mortality. Conclusions In a very large, multi-country sample of nationally-representative surveys in LMICs, stunting was strongly associated with child mortality from birth to 5 years. Stunting should be a focus in the effort to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 target to reduce neonatal and under-5 mortality in all countries by 2030. Funding Sources National Institute of Health.

scholarly journals Tuberculosis and Non-Communicable Disease Multimorbidity: An Analysis of the World Health Survey in 48 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2439
Author(s):  
Brendon Stubbs ◽  
Kamran Siddiqi ◽  
Helen Elsey ◽  
Najma Siddiqi ◽  
Ruimin Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Survey ◽  
Low Income ◽  
World Health ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
World Health Survey ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
Low And Middle Income

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). TB multimorbidity [TB and ≥1 non-communicable diseases (NCDs)] is common, but studies are sparse. Cross-sectional, community-based data including adults from 21 low-income countries and 27 middle-income countries were utilized from the World Health Survey. Associations between 9 NCDs and TB were assessed with multivariable logistic regression analysis. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated using disability weights provided by the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study. Eight out of 9 NCDs (all except visual impairment) were associated with TB (odds ratio (OR) ranging from 1.38–4.0). Prevalence of self-reported TB increased linearly with increasing numbers of NCDs. Compared to those with no NCDs, those who had 1, 2, 3, 4, and ≥5 NCDs had 2.61 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.14–3.22), 4.71 (95%CI = 3.67–6.11), 6.96 (95%CI = 4.95–9.87), 10.59 (95%CI = 7.10–15.80), and 19.89 (95%CI = 11.13–35.52) times higher odds for TB. Among those with TB, the most prevalent combinations of NCDs were angina and depression, followed by angina and arthritis. For people with TB, the YLDs were three times higher than in people without multimorbidity or TB, and a third of the YLDs were attributable to NCDs. Urgent research to understand, prevent and manage NCDs in people with TB in LMICs is needed.

scholarly journals Gestational weight gain in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling analysis using nationally representative data

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. e003423
Author(s):  
Dongqing Wang ◽  
Molin Wang ◽  
Anne Marie Darling ◽  
Nandita Perumal ◽  
Enju Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weight Gain ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Gestational Weight ◽  
Latin America And Caribbean ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Sub Saharan

IntroductionGestational weight gain (GWG) has important implications for maternal and child health and is an ideal modifiable factor for preconceptional and antenatal care. However, the average levels of GWG across all low-income and middle-income countries of the world have not been characterised using nationally representative data.MethodsGWG estimates across time were computed using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys Program. A hierarchical model was developed to estimate the mean total GWG in the year 2015 for all countries to facilitate cross-country comparison. Year and country-level covariates were used as predictors, and variable selection was guided by the model fit. The final model included year (restricted cubic splines), geographical super-region (as defined by the Global Burden of Disease Study), mean adult female body mass index, gross domestic product per capita and total fertility rate. Uncertainty ranges (URs) were generated using non-parametric bootstrapping and a multiple imputation approach. Estimates were also computed for each super-region and region.ResultsLatin America and Caribbean (11.80 kg (95% UR: 6.18, 17.41)) and Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia (11.19 kg (95% UR: 6.16, 16.21)) were the super-regions with the highest GWG estimates in 2015. Sub-Saharan Africa (6.64 kg (95% UR: 3.39, 9.88)) and North Africa and Middle East (6.80 kg (95% UR: 3.17, 10.43)) were the super-regions with the lowest estimates in 2015. With the exception of Latin America and Caribbean, all super-regions were below the minimum GWG recommendation for normal-weight women, with Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa and Middle East estimated to meet less than 60% of the minimum recommendation.ConclusionThe levels of GWG are inadequate in most low-income and middle-income countries and regions. Longitudinal monitoring systems and population-based interventions are crucial to combat inadequate GWG in low-income and middle-income countries.

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