scholarly journals Rethinking our definition of operative success: predicting early mortality after emergency general surgery colon resection

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. e000244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael P DeWane ◽  
Kimberly A Davis ◽  
Kevin M Schuster ◽  
Adrian A Maung ◽  
Robert D Becher

BackgroundThe postoperative outcomes of emergency general surgery patients can be fraught with uncertainty. Although surgical risk calculators exist to predict 30-day mortality, they are often of limited utility in preparing patients and families for immediate perioperative complications. Examination of trends in mortality after emergent colectomy may help inform complex perioperative decision-making. We hypothesized that risk factors could be identified to predict early mortality (before postoperative day 5) to inform operative decisions.MethodsThis analysis was a retrospective cohort study using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2012–2014). Patients were stratified into three groups: early death (postoperative day 0–4), late death (postoperative day 5–30), and those who survived. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore characteristics associated with early death. Kaplan-Meier models and Cox regression were used to further characterize their impact.ResultsA total of 18 803 patients were analyzed. Overall 30-day mortality was 12.5% (3316); of these, 37.1% (899) were early deaths. The preoperative factors most predictive of early death were septic shock (OR 3.62, p<0.001), ventilator dependence (OR 2.81, p<0.001), and ascites (OR 1.63, p<0.001). Postoperative complications associated with early death included pulmonary embolism (OR 5.78, p<0.001), presence of new-onset or ongoing postoperative septic shock (OR 4.45, p<0.001) and new-onset renal failure (OR 1.89, p<0.001). Patients with both preoperative and postoperative shock had an overall mortality rate of 47% with over half of all deaths occurring in the early period.ConclusionsNearly 40% of patients who die after emergent colon resection do so before postoperative day 5. Early mortality is heavily influenced by the presence of both preoperative and new or persistent postoperative septic shock. These results demonstrate important temporal trends of mortality, which may inform perioperative patient and family discussions and complex management decisions.Level of evidenceLevel III. Study type: Prognostic.

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (10) ◽  
pp. 4321-4328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Bozzay ◽  
Matthew Bradley ◽  
Angela Kindvall ◽  
Ashley Humphries ◽  
Elliot Jessie ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 227 (4) ◽  
pp. S125-S126
Author(s):  
Kimberly B. Golisch ◽  
Muhammad Zeeshan ◽  
El Rasheid Zakaria ◽  
Faisal Jehan ◽  
Narong Kulvatunyou ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Bradley ◽  
Angela T. Kindvall ◽  
Ashley E. Humphries ◽  
Elliot M. Jessie ◽  
John S. Oh ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 04 (02) ◽  
pp. e66-e77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serra Akyar ◽  
Sarah Armenia ◽  
Parita Ratnani ◽  
Aziz Merchant

Background The burden of frail patients undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS) is increasing rapidly and this population is particularly susceptible to postoperative cardiopulmonary complications and mortality. We aimed to determine the association between frailty, as defined by the previously described modified frailty index (mFI), and postoperative respiratory complications (unplanned reintubation, pneumonia, and prolonged ventilation), cardiac complications (myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest), and mortality. We also sought to identify the most significant determinants of frailty in the highest risk patients based on the specific variables comprising the mFI. Methods We performed a retrospective observational analysis of the prospectively collected American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Files from 2005 to 2015 identified 132,765 inpatients who underwent EGS. mFI scores were calculated for each patient. The effect of increasing frailty on unplanned reintubation, pneumonia, prolonged ventilation, myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, and mortality was evaluated using bivariate analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare mFI with additional predictor variables including race, gender, physical status as defined by the American Society of Anesthesiologists, disseminated cancer, renal failure, smoking status, sepsis, wound presence/classification, dyspnea, and previous ventilator dependence. Results Unplanned reintubation, pneumonia, prolonged ventilation, myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, and mortality were significantly associated with frailty, and the odds of each postoperative complication increased with increasing mFI score. Of the frailest patients (mFI ≥3) that experienced cardiopulmonary complications or mortality, the variables of the mFI that contributed most to frailty were hypertension requiring medication and functional status before surgery. Conclusions A higher mFI score is associated with increased odds of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications and mortality in the EGS population. Specific variables of the mFI can also provide valuable information for assessing odds in the frailest patients undergoing EGS.


2020 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert W. DesPain ◽  
William J. Parker ◽  
Angela T. Kindvall ◽  
Peter A. Learn ◽  
Eric A. Elster ◽  
...  

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. e034060
Author(s):  
Simon Feng ◽  
Carl Van Walraven ◽  
Manoj Lalu ◽  
Husein Moloo ◽  
Reilly Musselman ◽  
...  

IntroductionPeople 65 years and older represent the fastest growing segment of the surgical population. Older age is associated with doubling of risk when undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS) procedures and often coexists with medical complexity and considerations of end-of-life care, creating prognostic and decisional uncertainty. Combined with the time-sensitive nature of EGS, it is challenging to gauge perioperative risk and ensure that clinical decisions are aligned with the patient values. Current preoperative risk prediction models for older EGS patients have major limitations regarding derivation and validation, and do not address the specific risk profile of older patients. Accurate and externally validated models specific to older patients are needed to inform care and decision making.Methods and analysisWe will derive, internally and externally validate a multivariable model to predict 30-day mortality in EGS patients >65 years old. Our derivation sample will be individuals enrolled in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database between 2012 and 2016 having 1 of 7 core EGS procedures. Postulated predictor variables have been identified based on previous research, clinical and epidemiological knowledge. Our model will be derived using logistic regression penalised with elastic net regularisation and ensembled using bootstrap aggregation. The resulting model will be internally validated using k-fold cross-validation and bootstrap validation techniques and externally validated using population-based health administrative data. Discrimination and calibration will be reported at each step.Ethics and disseminationEthics for NSQIP data use was obtained from the Ottawa Hospital Research Ethics Board; external validation will use routinely collected anonymised data legally exempt from research ethics review. The final risk score will be published in a peer-reviewed journal. We plan to further disseminate the model as an online calculator or application for clinical use. Future research will be required to test the clinical application of the final model.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. e000371
Author(s):  
Andrew Medvecz ◽  
Andrew Bernard ◽  
Courtney Hamilton ◽  
Kevin M Schuster ◽  
Oscar Guillamondegui ◽  
...  

BackgroundTransfusion of red blood cells (RBC) increases morbidity and mortality, and emergency general surgery (EGS) cases have increased risk for transfusion and complication given case complexity and patient acuity. Transfusion reduction strategies and blood-conservation technology have been developed to decrease transfusions. This study explores whether transfusion rates in EGS have decreased as these new strategies have been implemented.MethodsThis is a retrospective review of the American College of Surgeons’ National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) data from three academic medical centers. Operations performed by general surgeons on adults (aged ≥18 years) were selected. Data were analyzed from two periods: 2011–2013 and 2014–2016. Cases were grouped by the first four digits of the primary procedure Current Procedural Terminology code. Transfusion was defined as any RBC transfusion during or within 72 hours following the operation. Composite morbidity was defined as any NSQIP complication within 30 days following the operation.ResultsOverall general surgery transfusion rates decreased from 6.4% to 4.8% from period 1 to period 2 (emergent: 16.6%–11.5%; non-emergent 4.9%–3.7%; Fisher’s exact p values <0.001). Among patients transfused, the number of units received decreased slightly (median 2 U (IQR 2–3) to median 2 U (IQR 1–3), Mann-Whitney U test p=0.005). Morbidity decreased (overall: 13.8%–12.3%, p=0.001; emergent: 26.3%–20.6%, p<0.001) while mortality did not change.DiscussionRates of RBC transfusion decreased in both emergent and non-emergent cases. Efforts to reduce transfusion may have been successful in the EGS population. Morbidity improved over the time periods while mortality was unchanged.Level of EvidenceLevel III.


2021 ◽  
Vol 108 (Supplement_7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahab Hajibandeh ◽  
Shahin Hajibandeh ◽  
George A Antoniou ◽  
Stavros A Antoniou

Abstract Aims To quantify the risk of perioperative mortality in octogenarians undergoing emergency general surgical operations and to compare such risk between octogenarians and non-octogenarians. Methods A systematic review was performed in accordance with the PRISMA statement standards to identify studies reporting the mortality risk in patients aged over 80 years undergoing emergency general surgery operations. The certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE system. Random-effects models were applied to calculate pooled outcome data. Results Analysis of 66701 octogenarians from 22 studies showed that the risk of 30-day mortality was 26% (95% CI 18-34%) for all operations;29% (95% CI 25-33%) for emergency laparotomy,9% (95% CI 1-23%) for non-laparotomy emergency operations;21% (95% CI 13-30%) for colon resection;17% (95% CI 11-25%) for small bowel resection;9% (95% CI 7-11%) for adhesiolysis;6% (95% CI 5.9-6.8%) for perforated ulcer repair;3% (95% CI 2.6-4%) for appendicectomy;3% (95% CI 2.8-3.3%) for cholecystectomy;5% (95% CI 0.2-14%) for hernia repair. When stratified based on ASA status, the risk was 11% (95% CI 4-20%) for ASA 2, 22% (95% CI 10-36%) for ASA 3, 39% (95% CI 29-48%) for ASA 4, and 94% (95% CI 77-100%) for ASA 5. The  risk was higher in octogenarians compared with non-octogenarians (OR:4.07,95% CI 2.40-6.89), patients aged 70-79 (OR:1.21,95% CI 1.13-1.31), and patients aged 50-79 (OR:2.03,95% CI 1.68-2.45). Conclusions The risk of perioperative death in octogenarians undergoing emergency general surgical operations is higher than the risk in younger patients. Laparotomy, bowel resection, and ASA status above 3 carry the highest risk. 


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