Use of the Back-Projection Method for Predictions of the Australian Aids Epidemic

1993 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-191
Author(s):  
S. R. Wilson ◽  
P. J. Solomon

The results of this analysis illustrate three points. First, that for predictions of AIDS cases four to five years into the future, the back projection method is largely insensitive to the assumption one makes for the incubation period distribution. The two extreme distributions considered represent the fast and slow extremes of incubation period distribution usually proposed; distributions that lie between these two give predictions within the range of predictions that the two generate. The estimated number of new HIV infections, however, is highly sensitive to the assumed incubation period distribution; prediction of AIDS cases in the long term will be similarly sensitive.


2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (9) ◽  
pp. 2073-2078 ◽  
Author(s):  
宋俊玲 Song Junling ◽  
洪延姬 Hong Yanji ◽  
王广宇 Wang Guangyu

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 100213
Author(s):  
Shuai Na ◽  
Xiaoyun Yuan ◽  
Li Lin ◽  
Julio Isla ◽  
David Garrett ◽  
...  

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